Frozen Fantasy: Done as a Leaf

It's hard to avoid the whole William Nylander situation living as close as I do to the Big Smoke. I just assumed he'd be signed before the season started.

Wrong. And wrong again when he was still out at the end of October.

I even scooped him up in a preseason draft thinking he was a steal in such a low round. He's been mired on my IR ever since.

Those other owners obviously knew something I didn't.

I understand why Nylander has dug into his position. The first contract is now the big contract in today's youth-driven NHL.

He sees Leon Draisaitl's $8.5 million AAV contract and knows his talent is just as good – and perhaps better.

Thanks, Peter Chiarelli. Not only is your trading record gruesome, but your cap management is too.

I know why Kyle Dubas has also dug in. He's playing the Stevie Y card (and the Red Wings card before that). There's a slot where you fit. You need to take less and put the team first, while still earning some pretty sweet coin.

But William Nylander is not Pavel Datsyuk. Or Henrik Zetterberg. Or even Nikita Kucherov. And I'm not comparing talent.

Holdouts this long are rare. Here's an interesting analysis of some recent late RFA signings. It's a good read.

Nylander has to sign by Dec. 1 or he can't play in the NHL this year. At least one-third of the other teams have inquired about him in trade.

The Leafs say they want him to play for them this season. But I can also see them holding tight to their position. And forcing him to sit the whole year.

They won't let a player 'win' in a situation like this.

There's no coming back from being forced to miss a year. Nylander is done as a Leaf, whether he signs a bridge or sits out. It just comes down to when the best deal will come along.

That might be now, at the deadline or at the draft. Or in the middle of whatever deal the two sides strike.

Dubas just can't have it be a Taylor Hall-Adam Larsson deal. The perceptions of that deal will haunt Edmonton forever.

Why isn't there a noose around Peter Chiarelli's job? But I digress.

Let's get this thing done and move on. Nylander's fantasy value right now is zero. It's the best when he's lined up with Auston Matthews.

But he can still be an 80-plus-point player anywhere he plays.

Now, let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Blake Coleman, LW/C, New Jersey (6 percent Yahoo! owned) – Pickles caught my eye Thursday night. He factored in all three Devils' goals and showed off both his power forward grit AND his soft paws. Maybe it's the pickle juice – seriously, the dude has a growing pickle empire. But the bottom line is simple. After Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier and Kyle Palmieri, @BColes25 is the Devils' next-best forward. And he has eight points in his last 10 games heading into Saturday. That's roster worthy in a lot more than six percent of leagues.

Samuel Girard, D, Colorado (8 percent Yahoo! owned) – Girard is only 20. But he's already logging a load of ice time and hopping the boards against the opponents' best line most of the time. At 20! Add in his elite skating and exceptional puck skills, and the Kris Letang comps come alive. The rest of the league is going to soon realize what you know already. That this kid is soon going to be among the league's elite. Now is the time to get on board. Girard has five assists in his last six games. That's got to be better than your bottom defender. Just saying.

Mikko Koivu, C, Minnesota (20 percent Yahoo! owned) – Koivu has been on fire of late, recording 10 points (two goals, eight assists) in his last six games. And half have come on the power play. Sure, he's old (by NHL standards). But this is Koivu's best pace of his career. Even if it is his last hurrah, I'm buying.

Frans Nielsen, C, Detroit (2 percent Yahoo! owned) – He's back at it. After missing four games to concussion, Nielsen has four helpers in his last four games. And eight assists in his last eight games. Nielsen has never scored more than 58 points and that was in 2013-14. But if you're hungry for apples, he's ripe for the picking. Ba-dum-bump.

Dmitry Orlov, D, Washington (9 percent Yahoo! owned) – Orlov only has six points. But half of those came Tuesday night against Minny. The guy was possessed. And he followed it up Wednesday with an assist. Orlov isn't going to score in bunches like that again. But he might have a few more inspired games in his jock over the next week or so. What have you got to lose?

Tanner Pearson, LW, Pittsburgh (10 percent Yahoo! owned) – Pearson's trade to the Pens was like a get-out-of-jail-free card AND Christmas morning all rolled into one. Pearson left the land of the pathetic and has landed on a line with Evgeni Malkin and Patrik Hornqvist. I'm sure there was a twinge of melancholy, but man, talk about opportunity. Snap him up. Pearson has been a strong sidekick since his overage year in junior. And he's about to take a giant leap.

Calvin Petersen, G, Los Angeles (2 percent Yahoo! owned) – So, why bother with a skinny, fourth-string goalie with crummy AHL numbers? In any other circumstance there would be a 10-foot pole near this guy. But Petersen is going to get playing time. Plain and simple. And he looked sharp Friday night against the Hawks. There's always a chance Petersen's poor AHL performance will return in the NHL. But if he might just be one of those guys who is just a whole lot better in the bigs than in any minor league stop.

Andrew Shaw, RW/C, Montreal (3 percent Yahoo! owned) – Shaw is abrasive and irritating – the kind of guy who you love on your team, but hate playing against. He heads into the weekend on a bit of roll. Shaw is on a four-game, six-point, plus-5 streak. And while you won't get many power-play points, you will get lots of hits and a few PIM for good measure. Category movement is Yahoo! formats are sometimes overlooked. Especially the sandpaper categories. They shouldn't be.

Craig Smith, RW, Nashville (18 percent Yahoo! owned) – Smith is a shooting machine – try 20 in four games over the last week. And he had a goal and two helpers in that span, too. And at his current rate, Smith is going to top 300 shots for the first time in his career. Only five guys fired that much rubber last season – Alex Ovechkin, Tyler Seguin, Brent Burns, Evander Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko. Smith is a whole lot cheaper than any of those guys if you need to make a move in that category. I do. Desperately.

Back to Nylander.

Both sides are about to lose in this situation. There are 31 teams currently judging William Nylander's character.

Right or wrong, it's happening.

And there are 31 teams wondering if rookie GM Kyle Dubas can get through without forever impacting the on-ice product because of the deal Willie is about to get.

Lose-lose.

The next 13 days are going to be nauseating in this media marketplace. Will he? Won't he? Who might be coming to Toronto?

Oh well. I have rosters to manage. I gotta go.

Until next week.