John Senden

Senden has been all over the map over the past decade, from sub-$1 million to nearly $3 million in earnings like last year. While it's certainly impressive that Senden can up his game from year to year, it's certainly not the track record of a guy you'd want in a salary cap league. Add to that, it looks like his ceiling is right around $3 million and it becomes a no-brainer. In draft leagues he should go late-3rd or early-4th round.

2013 was the first time since 2005 that Senden dropped below $1 million in earnings. The question though is, at 42 is this the start of the back-end of his career on the PGA Tour? Considering he's spent the better part of the past five years around $2 million in earnings, he's earned some consideration for the upcoming season. He's not the most exciting player, but he does provide some value in salary cap leagues. In draft leagues he should go in the 70-80 range.

There are a few different ways to get to nearly $2 million on the PGA TOUR. One is to win somewhere along the line and do little the rest of the season; another is to gobble up top-10s throughout the year. Senden chose the latter route last season as he earned five top-10s but was unable to crack the top 3 at any point. Senden is capable winning on the PGA TOUR, he's done it before, and to significantly improve this year, he'll have to do it again. The odds are probably against that this year, and as such, it's probably wise to pass on him in salary cap leagues. In draft leagues, he should go in the fifth round.

Senden got out of the gate extremely slow last season, but he managed to turn it around. Senden didn't capture his first Top-10 last year until the end of May and his chances of making the Top 125 looked grim until he put a string of strong finishes together in late summer that culminated with a runner-up finish at the BMW Championship. This isn't the first time that Senden has posted more than $2 million in earnings, so we know he's capable of getting back here, but the path he took to get to his number last year leaves a bit to be desired. You don't want your $2-million player struggling for months out of the season only to come up big one time.

Senden is one heck of a steady golfer. He's earned at least $1.2 million in each of the last five seasons, and there's no reason to believe he'll fall below that level this year. His ceiling, however, is another issue. Senden won his first and only PGA TOUR event in 2006, but that wasn't his best overall season. That came three years later when he cracked $2 million for the first time in his career. His game dropped off last season as he earned little more than $1 million. He doesn't offer a lot of bang for the buck, but he's definitely a safe bet to return at least the amount invested in him. Senden is a green-hitting machine. He led the PGA TOUR each of the last two seasons, and his lowest ranking in the last five seasons was 10th in 2008.

Senden's 2009 season can be summed up in one word - consistency. Senden earned only one top-3 last season, but he cracked the top-10 seven times, and those seven top-10s were spread out through the season. His best work came at season's end when he made a run through the FedEx playoffs, which bodes well for this year. Senden should continue to improve in 2010.

For the last couple seasons, Senden has shown a pattern of showing up only a handful of times each year. Don't get me wrong, he makes plenty of cuts, be he doesn't often accomplish much on the weekend. That being said, he has won on this tour and I have him pegged to breakthrough at some point. Could be this year.

Since joining the PGA Tour in 2002, Senden has shown an increase in earnings each year. Though the increase has been minimal between some years, it's still progress. Last season he topped his previous high of $1.65 million by over $200k. What's impressive about his last two seasons is the manner in which he earned his money. In 2006 he made most of his money from one victory at the John Deere Classic, last season he did not win, but he played well at several events, though some during the fall season. It's a good sign when a player has the ability to earn money both ways.

Senden's 2006 season was similar to his 2005 season with one exception. He putted well enough one weekend in 2006 to earn his first win on the PGA Tour. The problem with projecting Senden is his putting is not good and never has been good. He consistenly ranks lower than 130th in putting each year. After several years of putting so poorly it's hard to imagine he can turn it around in 2007.

Senden earned $698,203 last season, so his upside looks to be about $1 million for 2005. Have him on your radar, but he's nowhere near an every week starter.