For about a five-year span, starting in 2006, Ogilvy was one of the best golfers on the planet. His game began to slide in 2012, but a solid 2014 season gave the impression that the slide was a thing of the past, but since that 2014 season, his game has only gotten worse. Every season, Ogilvy plays well during a week or two and gets everyone's hopes up that he's finally back to the old Ogilvy, but the inevitable letdown is never far behind. It's clear now that Ogilvy will never recapture his form that saw him atop the golf world for a handful of years. As such, he's not a good salary cap option this season.
Ogilvy is using his one-time exemption for being among the top-50 career earners, so he really has to produce. It doesn't take much to get into the top-125, maybe one or two or two really good weeks. But does Ogilvy have them in him? Probably not.
One of the nice stories from the 2014 season was the return of Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy, a former U.S. Open champion had struggled for years until last season when we finally got another glimpse of what made him so good a decade ago. He's not back to the level he was 10 years ago, but he's making progress. The problem of course is that he's been extremely unreliable for the past five years, so is he worth the nearly $2 million tag this season? It looks like a 50/50 proposition at this point. Those that like to take chances will want in, those that play it safe will let someone else take the risk. The upside may not be what it once was however, which makes his prospects in a salary cap league iffy at best. In draft leagues he should go in the 5th or 6th round.
Much like Stewart Cink, Ogilvy has struggled since winning his major championship. Unlike Cink, Ogilvy is much younger and it seems more likely that Ogilvy will find his prior form again. Ogilvy may never find his major-winning form again, but at this price, he doesn't have to, he just needs to play a little better. Ogilvy isn't a must have, but he should be given consideration as his ceiling is much higher than his 2013 number. In draft leagues he should go in the 70-80 range.
It's difficult to underperform for a long period. After a while, perceptions change and expectations are altered. That hasn't been the case for Ogilvy, though, as each and every year the golfing public expects Ogilvy to return to the form that helped him capture the 2006 U.S. Open, and each and every year he lets us down. In fact, he appears to be getting worse each year. His earnings have dropped steadily since 2009, and his game is fading fast. Here's the problem, though: Ogilvy's upside is so high, it's almost impossible to pass him up at this price. He may continue to regress this season, but at this price, you have to take the chance. In draft leagues, he'll probably go too early, but anything earlier than the fifth round is a mistake.
It's not often that you can classify nearly $2 million in earnings as a failure, but that's exactly what it was for Ogilvy last season. If not for a late-season run, he would have been stuck near the $1 million mark. Ogilvy is simply too talented to hang out in this range for too long. He's a major champion who didn't play like it last year, and you can bet that he's well aware that things need to change this season. Ogilvy still resides in the Top-40 in the World Golf Rankings, so he'll have plenty of opportunity to atone during the big events this season. Look for Ogilvy to get off to a good start and put his 2011 season behind him quickly. In draft leagues, Ogilvy could go as early as the second round.
To give you an idea of how far Ogilvy has come, his $2.3 million in earnings last season is his lowest total since 2005. The reason for the lower earnings was a peculiar mid-season swoon in which Ogilvy carded only two top-25s in 14 events. Ogilvy has always been known as a quick starter, and he lived up to that reputation last year as he won the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January. His slump thereafter was troubling - even though he's never been a mid-season monster, he always found a way to be productive. Those fears were laid to rest, however, when he found new life during the Fed-Ex Cup. Ogilvy should return to his old form this season. He is long off the tee and normally a strong putter. GIR and driving accuracy are not strong points, though.
Ogilvy's history in big events is matched by only a select few, yet he's failed to take the next step while seemingly being on the verge for the past few years. Ogilvy's most recent opportunity to ascend to the next level came early last season when he had already picked up two wins by early March. However, he faltered over the remainder of the season and failed to finish in the top five even one more time. Ogilvy performs as good as anyone early in the season; but until he figures out how to maintain that success throughout the entire year, he'll remain a notch below the best in the world. Ogilvy, who was ranked 12th at the end of 2008, finished at 14th in the final 2009 Official World Golf Rankings.
Ogilvy's rise to major champion came a lot quicker than anyone anticipated and with that win came lofty expectations. Ogilvy has failed to live up to those expectations over the past two years, but he won the WGC Match play event last season and has earned nearly $3 million in each of the last two years. His number from last year is high, but he's got the potential to blow that out of the water.
Geoff Ogilvy is on the brink of entering the next tier. He has shown flashes over the last couple seasons, but he's yet to play consistent enough to be considering in that group just below Tiger. This year should be the season he gets there. It looked like he would get there last year after a great start, but his production slipped in the middle of the season. On a positive note, he finished well and should start the season strong again this year.
Ogilvy crashed onto the scene in 2006. Ogilvy was known among the PGA Tour players as a solid player whose time would come. Most outside the tour were not familiar with him when he won the WGC Match Play event last year. It should not have come as much of a surprise, however, as Ogilvy's stats were among the Tour elite for a couple of years prior to that win. In fact, it was somewhat of a mystery as to why Ogilvy hadn't captured that breakthrough win because his game was so solid. Anyhow, the cat is now out of the bag, and it's time to figure out his future. Ogilvy won two big events in 2006 in addition to solid efforts at the PGA Championship, British Open and Masters. Can he do much better in 2007? That he shows up for every major is a good sign. Yet, he did cash in two of the biggest prizes last year at the Match Play event and the US Open. While his production will remain high, a significant increase on his numbers in 2007 is going to be difficult.
Ogilvy is a player on the way up. The last two years he's ranked in the top-4 in all-round ranking. The all-round ranking combines of eight statistical categories. Until last year, however, those stats did not translate to earnings. While he didn't have a breakout year in 2005 he did make improvements. More than anything, Ogilvy needs to improve his final-round scoring. Last year he ranked 140th in that category. Improving in that category is just a matter of time and maturing, which could mean he's ready to break out.
After earning more than $1.2 million in 2004, Ogilvy looks to be primed for a breakout season. He has all the facets of his game in order -- as evident by being No. 1 in all-around ranking -- so we see him jumping to at least $2.5 million this season.
Ogilvy continued his climb up the earning chart in 2003. The downside to Ogilvy in 2003 was a stretch from the end of May through July, where he failed to make a cut. The upside was how he finished the season, a runner-up at the Buick Open, 8th at the International, and 27th at the PGA championship. Not bad for a guy who broke the $1 million barrier for the first time. This might be a good sleeper pick.
