Weekly PGA Preview: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch
McKinney, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Texas for another edition of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

Before we get to that a few words on the state of the game. The start to the PGA Tour season couldn't have gone much worse when it came to the list of winners. For nearly two months it was long shot after long shot hoisting the trophies, and while that was interesting for those with win tickets on said long shots, it didn't do much to drive interest in general. Fast forward a couple months and the PGA Tour is in a much different spot, with the dominance of Scottie Scheffler on display and now Rory McIlroy on the board, albeit in a team event, things are getting back to normal.  Stars winning each week is what drives interest and if this keeps up, I think they'll be okay...unless that one star wins every week going away and a sense of inevitability falls over everyone. Okay, I'm going too far down the rabbit hole here, let's just be happy for now that the cream has risen to the top. As for this week, well there isn't much cream, so I'm not sure if there is a scenario outside of Jordan Spieth getting back in the winner's circle that would drive interest, but no matter what happens, Scottie and the signature crew are back next week, so we've got that.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 1:30 PM ET Wednesday.                   

LAST TIME

Jason Day shot a final-round 62 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Si Woo Kim.

FAVORITES

Jordan Spieth (14-1) 

I don't know if Spieth is the favorite because the oddsmakers think he should be or because they know the public will bet on him because this event is in Texas, but whatever the case, I wouldn't want to bet on Spieth to win right now. The conditions are ripe for a win this week, with the weaker field and they fact that they are in Texas, but I'm not sure Spieth's game is where it needs to be right now. Even though the field is lacking big names, there is still plenty of talent out there, so whoever wins will have to play lights-out this week and I don't see that happening in this case.                                                         

Si Woo Kim (16-1)

Kim finished runner-up here this past year, but I'm not sure that's enough to insert him as the second favorite this week. Sure, he's played well this year in spots, but he has just one top-10 so far this season. Outside of his runner-up at this event this past year, his track record on this course has not been great as he finished T55 in 2021 and missed the cut in 2022. I'd need 20-1 or higher to play on Kim this week.                                                                                               

Jason Day (20-1)

Now we're getting into the value range. Day has played well this season, but he hasn't scored a top-5 since last summer. With that said, he's the defending champ this week and he torched this course to the tune of -23 under this past year, so you know he can get around this place with ease. I'm expecting Day to make a serious run this week, whether he wins or not, I don't know, but at 20-1, he holds the most value of the three favorites. 

THE NEXT TIER

Alex Noren (22-1)

This event has been played at TPC Craig Ranch for the past four years and Noren has been here for three of those years. In each of those three years he's made the cut and finished inside the top-35, with two in the top-25. Okay, so not a great resume, but good enough for me to think that if he's on, he can make a run this week. He's played well this year, but hasn't found that final gear to get him past the finish line. Perhaps he finds it this week.                                         

Stephan Jaeger (25-1)

A couple months ago I would have never made this play, but after he did something that no one else can do anymore, which is to take down Scheffler, you have to imagine his confidence is at an all-time high. Jaeger has made the cut at this venue in all three starts, and two times he ended up in the top-20. He's had enough time to soak in his big win, now it's time to get back to business. 

Tom Kim (28-1)

I subbed in for Ryan Andrade this week on the FanDuel article and I mentioned there that while Kim has played well over the past two years, he hasn't lived up to expectations. I haven't given up on him yet as he's done enough to make me think he can be a superstar at some point, but sooner or later he's going to need a big run to build his confidence. Perhaps the birdie paradise that is the TPC Craig Ranch will allow him to open it up this week.                                                          

LONG SHOTS

K.H. Lee (50-1) 

Lee has been on the PGA Tour since 2019 and one thing is clear, he's never going to be a consistent golfer, but when he's on, he's tough to beat. He's been "on" here twice in his career and both resulted in wins. His game isn't trending in the right direction currently, but he never really trends at all, he either shows up or he doesn't and it doesn't seem to matter whether he's playing well entering the week.                                                                                                            

Justin Lower (80-1)        

Since the winner this week will have to go really low, I decided to take a look at the PGA Tour's birdie leaders and to my surprise, Lower ranks 6th in that category this season. Lower has been anything but consistent this year, but he has made a few runs, which I guess is what a guy who makes a lot of birdies is capable of.                                                                                                            

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Jordan Spieth - I wouldn't bet him to win, but he's not a bad OAD selection this week because of his upside. The problem here is that a lot of OAD players will be on him since he's no longer a guy that you need to save for majors or signature events.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Alex Noren - I'm expecting Spieth and Day to soak up most of the ownership this week, so anyone outside of them is bound to help you out significantly this week if they were to do well. Noren should play well this week as he has a sound track record here along with some good form entering the week.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Stephan Jaeger - I dare say that the OAD players haven't bought into Jaeger just yet, but you have to remember that he had some high expectations placed upon him when joining the PGA Tour, so perhaps he just took a long time to adjust. Maybe that win over Scheffler will open the flood gates.

Buyer Beware: Min Woo Lee - This is probably terrible timing as Lee appears to be due for a big week. Then again, you're only "due" for a big week after a long stretch of underperforming. Lee hasn't been awful this season, but he certainly hasn't lived up to expectations. I'm expecting that to continue this week, but at some point, he's going to find his best game.

This Week: Stephan Jaeger - I've kind of hit a run recently. After picking up a win with Scheffler at The PLAYERS, I've leveled off. Perhaps I'm getting impatient, but I feel like I need to make a move and this would be a good spot as I'm expecting almost everyone to be on Spieth or Day this week. Jaeger has the upside to make this play pay off.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jason Day ($11,800)
Middle Range: Stephan Jaeger ($10,500)
Lower Range: Justin Lower ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Alex Noren - While I like Jaeger for the OAD format, he's a bit too risky for this one. Instead, I'll take Noren, who hasn't missed a cut here in three starts on this course and had been very consistent all season.       

Previous Results