This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
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In memory of
DUBLIN, OH
Signature Event No. 7 comes racing toward us the week prior to the U.S. Open. In many ways, I feel bad for the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. This event has been a cornerstone of the PGA TOUR for 50 years. From Roger Maltbie in the first edition to playoff winner Viktor Hovland a year ago, this tournament truly is signature. Jack Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village Golf Club in 1974. His home course in Ohio, the layout is a tribute to two of his favorite courses in the world; Muirfield and Augusta National.
Seventy-three players are in attendance ready to compete for $20 million and another elite title. Nine of the top 10 in the OWGR have entered and are getting ready for a stern test. The par 72 scorecard measuring 7,596 yards is annually one of the five toughest on TOUR. Many of Jack's designs aren't going to lead the course rating charts, but this one is his masterpiece. Take all the traditional elements of Valhalla three weeks ago and you begin to sense the setting in Dublin, Ohio.
2024 the Memorial Tournament: It takes a village
The course went through a massive renovation in 2020. All of the greens were resurfaced, and many holes were altered to adjust for the modern player. Since Patrick Cantlay's 19-under total in 2019, we have seen a serious scoring change. Hovland won last year at seven under par and I expect the winning score to rest at 12 under come Sunday afternoon. I'm giving the guys a decent opportunity to score because of the course conditions coming into The Memorial.
May is a rainy month in Ohio. Columbus has witnessed a little over an inch in the past two weeks and it is going to rain again today (Wednesday). During the renovation Nicklaus spared no expense and installed sub-air systems under the greens. MVGC can control the texture of the putting surfaces, but I believe the fairways and rough will be wet for Thursday and some of Friday. Soft landing conditions help these guys keep it in the short grass. We saw that firsthand last month at the PGA Championship.
The remainder of the week looks better, and temperatures are forecasted in the 70s. The wind will contribute to some confusion, but overall, this edition will be scorable. At 7,500+ yards, MVGC is the fifth longest course these guys have seen in 2024. A true ball striking test, the greens are only 5,000 sq/ft (on average). Long iron approaches to small targets promote an incredible need for serious short game technique. Quite honestly, that might be Muirfield Village's signature skill.
These green complexes are surrounded by thick northern rough, deep bunkers, and fronted by steep shaven slopes of short grass. Weekly venues on the PGA TOUR rarely test the field from 50 yards and in. MVGC really forces these guys to get it done around the greens. Although the lies will be different next week at Pinehurst #2, this is still an excellent short game preview for the third major championship.
We have another big three at the top of the betting board. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele have all started the week under +1000. We won't touch any of them since the short odds prohibit finding value on one while all three are in such incredible form. Should Scottie win by five, yes. Scheffler gained 20 strokes T2G last year and finished third. He lost nine strokes putting! That being said, Xander just won the PGA Championship on a very similar Nicklaus comp course and Rory has won two of his last four starts.
For these reasons, we will be looking for more value down the board. I enjoy covering this event as the Nicklaus leadership loves to pull out all the stops and the city of Dublin supports him. Not to mention, The Memorial almost always gives us free golf. Viktor's win over Denny McCarthy was the seventh playoff in the last ten years! So, buckle up and enjoy the show because this is the start of the best two weeks we will see back to back all season.
2024 the Memorial Tournament: Jack of all trades
Jack Nicklaus was one of the most cerebral players ever to have competed on the PGA TOUR. To start handicapping the skills needed to win The Memorial, you must begin with those who can think their way around a golf course. Certainly, Scheffler is the best. We saw what he has done at Augusta National. There are a couple other great game planners who can design a successful strategy for this test. When building that plan, one of the most important facets is determining where to play off the tee. Much like Augusta National, angles play a huge part in the layout.
A plethora of approach shots are played from long range (175+ yards - 45%). Great mid/long iron guys can separate here. The recent leaderboards succinctly display this as the most common theme amongst the Sunday contenders and eventual champions. The higher you can launch it, the better. MVGC has so many shallow hole locations. The greens are small and get even smaller around the perimeter. Tucking pins on small outcroppings make it almost impossible to land approaches unless they fall straight down. Any model made this week would weight approach play at the very top.
Second to the iron game is short game. Fifty bunkers surround these greens. And even though the long rough only promotes one play to recover, you still have to be able to pull it off. Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Jordan Spieth have scored well here due to their ability to save strokes from around the green. To compound the scrambling value, this collection of par 5s was designed to be three shot holes. Many pros will hit them (or attempt) in two, but in most cases that third shot will approach from close range. Nicklaus was one of the greatest pitchers in the game and you better believe his course tests your ability to do the same.
Don't spend a great deal of time on putting. Much like ANGC you don't have to be a great putter to win here. Will it help? Yes it always helps, but many past champions are far from fabulous with a flatstick. Over the past five years, winners have gained an equal amount OTT and with the putter. Both values are less than approach (first) and ARG (second). Can being a great putter help you win? McCarthy has proven yes, but looking back through the leaderboards post renovation, I strongly prefer the high launch target ball striking approach.
Muirfield Village boasts some beefy par 4s. The last ten winners have gained nearly nine strokes (on average) versus the field on the par 4s. Even though seven of the 10 measures over 450 yards, par 5 scoring separates the field. MVGC's par 5s are some of the most difficult on TOUR. They force reluctant decision making and possess incredible green complexes. Much like ANGC, television does not do these four holes any justice. They just cannot be represented on a flat screen. All measuring between 550-600 yards, we can really determine the best players in that category. Since scoring is so difficult on the 3s and long 4s, this area of analysis can be incredibly helpful in making final decisions for our outright card.
I always marvel at the comp courses we find when it comes to great venues these guys compete on year after year. Sure, Valhalla makes sense, but that happens once a decade. The Masters helps too, but how about a couple more. I'm using putting skill on the Nicklaus Tournament course during The American Express and THE PLAYERS. Rahm, Hideki, Kuchar, etc. all excel on Dye's design in Ponte Vedra Beach and MVGC. Here's a fun one and quite corollary. TPC Scottsdale leaderboards are very comparable to The Memorial. Scottie, Cantlay, Rahm, Xander, Rickie, Hideki, and Spieth all have impressive records in both places. Know who finished top 10 there this year because it will help.
Over the last five years, the winners have averaged 20 sub-par scores en route to winning. Hovland had 19 (!) and won at seven under par in a playoff. Never forget bogey avoidance and scrambling skill on venues like these. MVGC is a major championship course. Although it won't look anything like Pinehurst #2 next week, don't be surprised when the leaderboards do.
2024 the Memorial Tournament: Outright Winners
Collin Morikawa (+1400)
Morikawa has the second lowest scoring average in the field at MVGC. Only Cantlay is slightly better.
- Morikawa's last five starts: 3 (Masters)-9-16-4 (PGA)-4.
- In his last five starts, Collin is gaining an average of nine strokes on the field.
- During that run, he's averaging +2.5 SG:ARG!
- Collin won the Workday Charity Open (2020) at MVGC.
- Morikawa fades it just like Jack, a perfect fit for these fairways.
Si Woo Kim (+6000)
Kim has four straight top-20 finishes at the Memorial.
- Top-5 in career scoring average, Kim has a strong history here.
- Si Woo's season has been impressive, he's ranked top 15 T2G and ball striking.
- Short game plays a huge roll, Kim is eighth in scrambling, seventh in bogey avoidance, and sixth in SG:ARG.
- Kim can putt at MVGC. In seven trips he's gained positively five times.
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