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2024 John Deere Classic: Stuck in the middle
Golf betting can drive you wild at times, but that is exactly why we love it. Seven straight weeks of contention (and cashing) backed up by a "whiff" at the Rocket Mortgage has me fired up for the John Deere Classic. What's most interesting about this midsummer night's dream are all of the storylines. Patrick Cantlay in for a minute, then out! I get Sungjae Im, but why is Jordan Spieth here? Im plays 30 weeks a year, and Jordan has not been in Silvis since he won for the second time back in 2015. Then there's Jason Day dropping in for the first time since 2011.
It's obvious, these guys feel just like we see them, in need of a paradigm shift in play. Spieth has been horrible and sits outside the top 50 in the FedExCup Standings. He has dropped 17 OWGR spots since January 1. Why not try a weaker field at a place where he had great success? Spieth finished sixty-third at the Travelers. Day is a little harder to figure out. Barely inside the FedEx top 30, there are not many easy events left for him to accrue some serious points. The elite schedule goes from here to Scotland for two weeks, and then the playoffs.
The rest of the field is savoring the schedule as they have five secondary events left before the top 70 cutoff. Signature season is over. This is the most important storyline in Silvis, Illinois. Middle guys who need precious points will be grinding over the next six weeks. Keep them in mind as you build out your betting cards. Our focus remains sharp even though most look past the JDC on a holiday week. My plan is to create our own fireworks on Sunday!
2024 John Deere Classic: Nothing runs like a Deere
The weather is about to get pretty wild at the Deere. Dry through most of June, this week will provide some precipitation. Nearly an inch has landed already this week and rain is in the forecast for all four days of the tournament. The wind on Friday (and into the weekend) will bring about some serious challenges. Soft conditions will help scoring, but everyone will have to navigate rain at some point. TPC Deere Run is already an excellent ball strikers test. Elevation changes, small greens (5,500 sq/ft) and now a little weather will amp up the focus meter for everyone.
I realize this is not Pinehurst #2, but to win you must have proven impact capabilities. There will be plenty of birdies, and that's another reason why I like better ball strikers in this event. The last 10 winners averaged 25 sub-par scores on their way to winning. The average winning score for the last 10 editions is 21 under par. I cannot say last decade as we skipped the JDC in 2020 due to covid. If there's one winner theme that stands out, the John Deere has crowned some new talent over the years. Spieth winning at 19 years old for the first time on TOUR sticks out. Throw in Michael Kim, Bryson DeChambeau and a few others and this venue has been a launching pad at times.
TPC Deere Run is a par 71 layout covering 7,289 yards. A standard vanilla TOUR stop, players will be rewarded for great wedge play and putting. The course runs through the rolling hills of the Quad Cities in western Illinois. Players are slightly challenged off the tee and must navigate around 76 bunkers. Three holes have water in play and with just three par 5s, the guys must look for other holes to secure sub-par scores. The cut has not been above par in the last 20 years. The average cutline over the past five editions is 2.4 under par. The two most difficult holes close-out each nine. Four holes have a bogey rate over 15% while a staggering 13 holes have a birdie rate over the same value.
Eight of the top 50 in the OWGR are here, and 33 of the top 100. Yes, half of the 50-100 crowd is playing. Alongside those world golf rankings, players are trying to secure places on the two Presidents' Cup teams. Those rankings get quite interesting past the first few obvious names. Needless to say, there's a whole bunch of things worth playing for in the Quad Cities. The field of 156 will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36-holes. Notice I didn't say Friday as weather will most definitely play a role in all of this. The purse is $8 million, and first place earns $1.44 million. We are all motivated in different ways. Statistics were not my only consideration when building our card. I know everyone is aware of their rankings. Some are motivated by multiple lists, and I have taken that into account as well.
2024 John Deere Classic: Rinse, rewind, repeat
For the third week in a row, we are featuring a very similar skill set to build our outright card. TPC Deere Run places a premium on driving accuracy. The field favors hitting the fairway to a tune of 71% which is almost 10% higher than the PGA TOUR average. In many cases at Deere Run, the fairways move with the landscape. Getting offline to start a hole can easily lead to a bogey avoidance situation. We have 28 acres of fairway to target which is plenty of room but miss it and getting to 20 under par becomes very problematic.
Hitting fairways sets up the approach game just like TPC River Highlands. Approximately one third of approaches will come between 100 and 150 yards. The contenders will separate here with their proximity to the hole. It's a wedge-fest again and these guys know it. Players hit over 70% of their GIRs. Well above the TOUR average, just hitting the green from that range is not enough. Leaders will create 36 plus birdie chances inside 25' over the course of four rounds. Compound the situation with soft green conditions and they may get more. We remain focused on the guys who can do this from uneven lies and various elevation changes.
How do we know who "they" are? Comp courses and TPC Deere Run history succinctly shows who has these skills. This doesn't mean course history is the "end all" to make my card, just that we know who can hit these type of approach shots. Securing over 70% of GIRs causes us to lean less on ARG acumen. There will be a short game shot or two that saves par (or scores on a par 5 from close range), but just like last week, those avoiding bogeys will simply run out of holes to birdie. I like this birdiefest more than others because it involves better approach play. TPC Craig Ranch and others are built on flat terrain.
Once you set up those birdie opportunities, the putter takes over. The strongest influence on success at TPC Deere Run is the flat stick. Straka gained 6.8 strokes on the field a year ago and seven of the last 10 winners have gained four or more strokes on the greens en route to winning. Pack a bunch of great putters into your outright suitcase when traveling to the Quad Cities. Midwestern bent grass greens are perfect and once made soft by the rain will yield approximately 2,000 birdies to the field.
A par 71 scorecard means one less par 5. In this case, we have 11 par 4s. Strokes gained on the 4s will also help you separate. The last five winners gained an average of 10 strokes on the field on the 4s. Seven of the 11 par 4s measure under 440 yards. That's scoring central for these guys. We saw it the past two weeks and it will happen again in Illinois. Length only really becomes a factor when you consider those three par 5s and the two par 4s under 370 yards. Those five holes will favor a bomber who can accurately set up a good scoring chance off the tee. That slight edge has made a winning difference in the recent past.
One last item I believe made a difference in Detroit was par 3 scoring, so I looked there as well. Nine of the top 15 on the par 3s finished inside the leaderboard top 10 a year ago. Those four holes average 196 yards. A solid long iron test much like the par 5s, this approach category definitely checks out when it comes to contending. Following our trip to the Midwest, we will be in Scotland for two weeks. That means early morning golf and weather affected results. Let's grab a winning card as we watch the same men compete in a similar ball-striking contest.
2024 John Deere Classic: Outright Winners
Davis Thompson (+2800)
Not many are trending toward a win like Thompson.
- Thompson finished ninth at the US Open and runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage.
- Davis plays really well in events under a par 72. TPC Deere Run is a par 71 layout.
- Davis is ranked third in BoB% and T2G for this field.
- In his last five events, Thompson is gaining an average of 5.5 strokes on the field.
Sam Stevens (+5000)
Stevens is an excellent young talent who is also trending on TOUR.
- Stevens is a great putter whose best surface is bentgrass.
- Tenth at Rocket Mortgage and fourteenth in Canada, he's peaking coming into Illinois.
- Stevens' secret weapon is his driver. He's really long and accurate. He'll score on the par 5s and shorten this course considerably.
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