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2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Hey Jude
Before we begin the FedExCup Playoffs, let's take a moment to celebrate our ninth win of the season. In one of the wildest Sundays I can remember on the PGA Tour, Aaron Rai was four strokes behind Max Greyserman with just five holes left to play at the Wyndham Championship. The tournament began with nearly six inches of rain and the entire day canceled on Thursday. Round one didn't finish until Saturday morning and rounds two, three, and four were all finished on Sunday. Well almost finished, thanks Matt Kuchar! When that humidity settled, Rai ripped a laser like iron approach on 18 to five feet and made the final putt to secure a two-stroke victory.
Kuchar finished his round Monday morning in six minutes. Once that happened, the Wyndham was over and the top 70 and ties were all invited to the FedEx St. Jude Championship. All 70 have RSVP's positively and round one of the playoffs will take place in Memphis, Tennessee for the third year in a row. Our host venue is no stranger to high level golf, TPC Southwind is prepared to cut an elite field nearly in half (70 down to 50). Memphis has hosted the PGA TOUR for quite some time. As a reward to their passionate crowds and FedEx's money, what was a regular TOUR stop has been elevated over time.
- St. Jude Classic: 1989 - 2018
- WGC Invitational: 2019 - 2021
- FedEx St. Jude Championship: 2022 -
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Walking in Memphis
TPC Southwind is a stern test. Walking the grounds this week, you can really see how much these players treat this place with respect. The par 70 layout covers 7,243 yards of Zoysia and Champion Bermudgrass. While it was a weekly TOUR stop, the average winning score was 14 under par. Soft summer conditions and a spot on the schedule a week before the US Open never attracted the strongest fields. All of that changed in 2019 when the world's elite started dropping in. The average winning score jumped to 16 under par and the average pre-tournament winner's odds in the last five editions is only +3000 (30-1). TPC Southwind is ready to challenge these guys to get (or stay) inside the top 50.
Eleven holes have water in play including four of the last five and the course displays 75 bunkers. I heard it in the press conferences, everyone is talking about the condition of the course and how it will play like a typical Southwind, "spongy." Not your average TPC, this course takes serious T2G work. The top 70 on the FEC points list are here and they want a large piece of the $20 million. It's been almost two months since we handed out an elevated purse at the Travelers. Another similarity to Travelers week is the heat! It's warm down in Memphis. Players will feel fatigued over four days playing in these conditions.
The forecast only calls for thunderstorms in the afternoons. That makes sense considering the heat and humidity levels I'm feeling. The wind should stay in the single digits, and although that won't keep us any cooler, it will make it easier for the field to hit their targets. After all, TPC Southwind is a target rich environment. The average green size is just 4,300 sq/ft and players hit well below the PGA TOUR average in competition. Driving accuracy also falls below the TOUR average. Nine holes have a birdie rate over 15% and 10 holes have a bogey rate over that same value. The rough is uniform Bermudagrass. That means trouble as when it looks good that means the ball will drop straight to the bottom.
Getting out will cause a serious amount of strife. Not just on approach, but also from around these green complexes. With just two par 5s, there aren't a lot of places to make easy birdies. Seven of the 12 par 4s are over 450 yards. Before I make this sound too hard, the best of 2024 are here and look primed to play. Xander Schauffele comes in with two majors, most recently at Royal Troon. Scottie Scheffler arrives waiting to do one thing he has not been able to pull off since this historic run began two years ago; win the FedEx Cup. Scheffler has been poised entering East Lake each of the last two seasons and lost.
I'm watching a couple of middle tier guys who look really good like Sungjae Im and Tony Finau stripe it on the practice range. The top 70 really pushes the playoff narrative versus 125. This field is elite and ready. They better be, 20 are going home after Sunday until the fall or even next year. With signature status on the line, you better believe these guys ranked above 50 will be fighting. Jordan Spieth and Viktor Hovland need a serious finish to even get close to Colorado and the BMW Championship. A great test with tons on the line, I cannot wait for tomorrow and watch it get started...
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Champion Bermuda
This weather down in Memphis is exactly why they use Bermudagrass on the greens and Zoysia in the fairways. Not only can they handle the heat and humidity, it almost looks as if they thrive in it! The grounds are perked up and ready for this elite event. The guys will need to be on their game. Ironically, the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship are pretty valuable previews for TPC Southwind. Only problem is, most of the super elite players didn't compete in them. Not only that, they haven't in years past. The good news is since changing to an elevated event in 2019, the St. Jude has a valuable history we can use to our advantage.
Like so many other tough tests, contenders gain here against the field with their iron game. The winners over the last decade picked up over six strokes on the field. Over two-thirds of those approaches come in from 125-200 yards. It doesn't take a fancy wedge game or long iron acumen to excel here. Just do your job with the mid-irons and you'll differentiate from the field. Keep in mind, 4,300 sq/ft on average is small. If you hit the GIRs, you will have plenty of birdie chances. Many of the greens sit at funny angles from the fairway. I spoke with PGA TOUR alumni Jay Delsing who owns the course record 61 (1993). He felt this course was great at making you question your approach alignment between the design features and routing.
Outside of the penalty areas off the tee, this is one place that guys can get ahead. Previous winners have come in with fantastic approach form. We are jumping on a couple of those guys just as we did going into Wyndham. Scheffler will be tough to beat as total driving and mid-iron play is pretty much his wheelhouse. My one hope is the Bermudagrass greens. The grain can give him fits and we can squeak out a win. Going off at less than +400 is a no-bet for me against this elite field. The greens at TPC Southwind lack character. This will help more of the field capitalize on their birdie efforts. That sounds like it may help Scottie too, but the more players who can keep up with him, the better.
We always analyze the scorecard and at Southwind I see two edges. The first is the 12 par 4s. Making birdies on these holes with your mid-iron game will be the most direct path to victory. Our last 10 winners gained an average of nine strokes on the field with their par 4 scoring. Not one of these mundane middle length 4s really stand out. None are over 500 yards and unless they move a tee box, they cannot be driven from the tee. They provide just a ton of "stock" scoring chances. Here's where the complement of hitting fairways and GIRs really counts. The recent TPC Southwind leaderboards are littered with guys who can do just that and putt slightly above the field average.
The second key is determining who the best par 70 Bermudagrass scorers are. This research method worked at Wyndham (and the John Deere). Par 70/71 courses are different. Players who excel without a full complement of four par 5s are the focus. Rory leads that list over Scottie. Some of the others litter our outright card. One last feature of tour leans is hitting fairways. It sounds obvious to miss the water, but the real reason for bringing this up is the difference on approach from Bermuda rough versus the Zoysia grass fairways. Great ball strikers love Zoysia because the ball sits up.
It allows the true T2G guys to separate because the contact is so clean. That's why you see the best iron players excel here, East Lake, Valhalla, etc. Conversely, Bermudagrass rough is as unpredictable as wire grass. That's a bit of hyperbole, but the truth is these guys hate Bermuda rough. The ball drops to the bottom and it becomes impossible to control spin and trajectory. Lose those two factors and you find the ball flying all sorts of different distances. Guys who hit the fairway and stay out of the wiry Bermuda can separate effectively in this field. Driving distance hovers right around the TOUR average at TPC Southwind for this reason. Bombers will always have an edge if they hit the fairway, but courses like this one give the medium hitters a genuine opportunity to get in the mix.
Scheffler will be the No. 1 seed at East Lake. Schauffele most likely holds on to the number two spot, but the rest is really up for grabs. Top 50 is so important when it comes to that signature status. Especially for the middle tier guys. Watch out for players in that 50-70 range. I believe they will bring a birdie or bust mentality to the course. They have so much more to gain (than lose) by getting in. Their card is secure for 2025. I think this format only gets better over time as the guys realize the importance of each round. Balance that card with guys across all levels of FEC incentives and there will be a tremendous opportunity for us to win one more time this season.
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Outright Winners
Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
Cantlay gained over six strokes against the field at Royal Troon on approach. He also played in the bad weather wave.
- Cantlay is the 2021 FedExCup Champion and owns three playoff wins.
- Patrick has gained with his putter is six of his last eight starts.
- The runner-up at TPC Southwind last year, Cantlay is the perfect positional golf course player.
- Patrick has finished top 10 in the FEC points standings each of the last three years.
Justin Thomas (+5000)
Thomas is a FedExCup Champion and the feature of my Monday Odds Drop article. A great Monday value at +5000!
- A Kentucky native, he is very comfortable with the agronomy at TPC Southwind.
- Thomas won the 2020 WGC event at Southwind against an elite field. In four trips to this TPC, he has a stroke average under 68. The best of anyone with four starts or more in the field.
- Last time he played in the region, he finished eighth at the PGA Championship.
- Worried about the putter? JT has gained on the greens in three straight events.
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