This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
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FedEx St. Jude Championship Through The Years
The FedEx St. Jude Championship leads off the FedEx Cup (FEC) playoffs for the second year in row. No stranger to high level golf, TPC Southwind is prepared to cut an elite field nearly in half. Memphis has hosted the PGA TOUR for quite some time. As a reward to their passionate crowds and FedEx's money what was a regular TOUR stop has been elevated a couple of times.
- St. Jude Classic 1989 - 2018
- WGC Invitational 2019 - 2021
- FedEx St. Jude Championship 2022
The par 70 layout covers 7,243 yards of Zoysia and Bermudgrass. While it was a weekly TOUR stop, the average winning score was 14 under par. Soft summer conditions and a spot on the schedule a week before the US Open never attracted the strongest fields. All of that changed in 2019 when the world's elite started dropping in. The average winning score jumped to 16 under par and the average pre-tournament winner's odds in the last five editions is only +2000 (20-1). TPC Southwind is playoff worthy test.
Eleven holes have water in play including four of the last five and the course displays 75 bunkers. You'll hear it in the press conferences, the field of 70 has respect for this venue. Not your average TPC, this course takes serious T2G work. The top 70 on the FEC points list are here and they want a large piece of the $20 million dollar purse. It's been almost two months since we handed out an elevated purse at the Travelers.
The big bucks are back and so is the big three and this time Rory, Rahm and Scottie are in great form. Very rarely do we get the best of the best firing on all cylinders, so this should be really entertaining. It's Memphis in the summer so we have plenty of heat in the forecast. The summer has been wet dumping over a foot of rain in the region during July. In the GCSAA report, there was a comment stating the amount of rain has even precluded some tournament preparation. More rain is predicted during the tournament. Just over an inch is forecasted, but we will see what happens. As we saw at the Wyndham, it is storm season down south.
The St. Jude is the first of three playoff rounds to complete the season. Seventy will be cut after Southwind to the top 50 for Chicago and the BMW Championship. Another US Open caliber course awaits in Olympia Fields. Their North Course also boasts a par 70 scorecard. The Tour Championship takes us back to Atlanta and East Lake Golf Club. One more par 70 course making each stage a tight scoring affair. Does the par really make a difference? We'll get into that and whole lot more in the outrights section.
As for now, stop thinking about the Ryder Cup and wrap you head around some serious target golf. The greens at TPC Southwind are small. They average just 4,300 sq/ft in size and are covered in Bermudagrass. Hot, humid, wet conditions make those surfaces grainy and sticky. Experience on southern style grass is an advantage at TPC Southwind. Any affinity for warm weather success wouldn't hurt either. Get ready as the best ramp up for one more run in 2023 of stroke play success. There's a ton to play for and I can't wait to see who steps up to take it home.
FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023 Impact Players
Par 70 scoring is a thing. It sounds like hyperbole, but those two strokes make a big difference. On the PGA TOUR scoring average rankings, two strokes is the difference between first and fifty-seventh place. Obviously not a complete "apples to apples" comparison, but I believe you get the point. Scoring without two extra par 5s places a heavy emphasis on approach play. No longer can you grab an extra birdie or two by just being close to a par 5 green in two shots. Players must create birdie chances with their iron play.
Over the last five years, winners at TPC Southwind have gained average of six plus strokes (6.6) against the field on approach. Unlike so many PGA TOUR courses, this venue tests more of your mid-iron approaches. Forty-eight percent of your attacking plays come from 150-200 yards. The TOUR average for that range is 38 percent. Nine holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent so with an efficient iron game, a player can separate and score from the fairway.
The five toughest holes are par 4s (5, 17, 12, 18, 7). Par 70 scorecards generally have two extra par 4s in replace of those missing par 5s. At TPC Southwind, seven of those 12 par 4s measure over 450 yards in length. I believe par 4 scoring tells a story at Southwind. The contenders will create birdie chances by hitting fairways and converting birdies on these holes. Hitting those fairways is not easy in Memphis. The average width is 25 yards which ranks inside the top 10 for tightest landing areas on TOUR.
From the fairway, the average green size you are looking at is 4,300 sq/ft. Much smaller than the Donald Ross targets a week ago and sitting further away, the complement of skills needed on par 4s proves who has the best chance at winning. The average GIR rate at TPC Southwind (59 percent) is under the TOUR average of 66 percent. A classic ball striking test, don't be surprised if we see elite players rise to the occasion.
If the big three (Rahm, Rory, and Scottie) are firing on all cylinders, how can they be beat? Who can slip past them to secure the round one win. Putting will play a significant role in all of this. Converting birdie opportunities on par 3s and 4s takes a functioning flat stick. TPC Southwind greens are smaller than average and relatively flat. Outside of the 0-5' range, each other five-foot measured increment (5-10, 10-15, etc.) allows for more made putts than the TOUR average. If you can putt, Southwind will let you sink a couple.
That's significant and how we will determine our winner. Since we expect a cutline over par and total winning score in the high teens, converting birdies is key to contending. Aside from the scoring chances, keep the ball out of trouble. Water lurks in many places and can create double bogeys quickly. Bogey avoidance is one skill, but five holes have a double bogey rate over five percent. An elite field doesn't allow for any big mistakes.
Much was made last week discussing the significance of making it into the top 70. The cut in Memphis is even more important. Those in the top 50 who move on to the BMW Championship become the "designated" few to start the 2024 season. Entering elevated events for a mid-tier player can be a career changer. If you missed the top 70, you have all fall to return to the TOUR. The top 50 followed by the top 30 really sets you up for future financial success. Since every player in this field can contend for those 50 spots, we are bound to see more playoff drama than ever before in this round.
To close, I'm going to lean heavily on efficient scorers for the playoffs. Guys who have proven they can contend when par is 70. The top 10 par-70 players on TOUR are Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Keegan Bradley, Sungjae Im and Justin Rose. Notice Jon Rahm didn't make that list (ranked 11). This edge over four rounds of par 70 scorecards will make a difference. Not just four rounds this week, three rounds of playoffs and 12 total rounds. Olympia Fields North Course next week and East Lake to close the TOUR Championship are also par 70 courses. These guys can score on the par 4s and in the end will have the best chance to take home the better part of $80 million dollars.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks and Odds
Xander Schauffele (+1800)
You know what I have my eye on this week, and Schauffele checks all the boxes. Second in par 70 scoring, the well-rounded top 10 ranked player in the world can save his season with a playoff win. TPC Southwind is a perfect fit for the X-man with his ability to score on par 4s and convert with the flatstick. If you include the PLAYERS, Schauffele has finished inside the top 20 in all five majors. He's gained over eight strokes against the field in his last ten starts. As he and the other American stars start to grind and get ready for Rome, a playoff win would do wonders for his confidence.
Wyndham Clark (+3500)
Watch out for Clark. TPC Southwind is a Clark style course. Who could forget that shot tracer on the seventy-second hole at LACC. This week is a faders (left to right ball flight) paradise. Wyndham is also a top 10 ranked par 4 scorer and for bogey avoidance. That unbelievable short game gets it done and the infamous putter. Somebody must win player of the year and he's a legit candidate with multiple wins and a major. Over his last 10 starts, Wyndham is winning by gaining 8 shots against the field and his strongest gains have come on approach. The U.S. Open celebration is complete, and I think Clark is about to get back to business.
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