This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL PRES. BY MASTERCARD
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 550 to the Winner
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Yardage: 7,466
Par: 72
2022 champion: Scottie Scheffler
Tournament Preview
It's hard to wrap your head around this being the seventh Arnold Palmer Invitational without Arnold Palmer, who passed away in September 2016. In his honor, there will be a turnout befitting a king, or The King, with every single eligible golfer in the top-50 in the world rankings entered in the tournament. That will make this field even stouter than the Genesis Invitational, but only by the slightest of margins.
Nine of the top 10 in the world rankings, 23 of the top 25 and 43 of the top 50 will descend upon Bay Hill, though No. 984 will not. Tiger Woods did not enter the tournament by Friday's deadline, just two weeks after his successful return to golf at Riviera. This marks the 10th anniversary since the last of his eight wins at Bay Hill. He last played there in 2018. There's still a chance, though far from a certainty, that Woods will tee it up next week at THE PLAYERS Championship in what likely would be his last tuneup before the Masters in April.
As a public-service announcement, we'll advise that there's an alternate-field event going on this week in Puerto Rico, and it's also on the Draft Kings docket. But we're here to concentrate on Bay Hill.
After Scottie Scheffler won the WM Phoenix Open three weeks ago to wrest the No. 1 ranking from Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm won the Genesis Invitational a week later to take the top spot from Scheffler, who will sit atop the OWGR mantle, however temporarily, come Sunday night? Scheffler is the defending champion and McIlroy won it in 2018, but Rahm has captured five of his past nine worldwide starts. There's also surging Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris and Collin Morikawa rounding out the top-10. Further, there's a recent returnee to the top-50 who is making us take notice. That's former world No. 1 Jason Day, who won this tournament during his heyday in 2016.
Bay Hill is traditionally among the hardest courses the golfers will see all year, ranking in the top-10 five of the past six years. Last year, it ranked fourth, and Scheffler won at a mere 5-under. In 2020, Tyrrell Hatton won at 4-under, though the weather was more of a factor than usual. In between, Bryson DeChambeau won at 11-under -- still no cakewalk.
At 7,400-plus yards, Bay Hill is kind of long, but it is a par-72. There are some very long holes. All four par-3s are 200-plus yards and there are five par-4s over 450, including the famed 458-yard 18th. That means long iron play is important. That also tells us something about the par-5s. Three of the four are under 575 yards, one a mere 511, all are gettable in normal conditions and the golfers probably must make a big dent in them if they hope to win. In fact, DeChambeau shot 10-under on the par-5s and just 1-under on the rest of the course. They widened the fairways in 2015, so golfers can really let fly off the tee, though water is in play on half the holes. The greens are large at an average of 7,500 square feet and fast at 12 on the Stimpmeter, and most of the golfers will continue to do their happy dance on their beloved bermudagrass surface.
More than half the 120-man field will make the cut. That gives you a much greater chance to get all six of your guys through all four rounds, and lends support to an imbalanced lineup approach this week because so many $6000s will make the cut. Besides, if you want to get a couple of the top guys in your lineup, you'll have to dip down. And the way these designated events have been going, the elite have always been on the first page of the leaderboard.
As for the weather, it's look like the wind will be a HUGE factor this week. Pretty windy all four days, really windy later Friday and all day Saturday. So it is looking right now as if the late/early tee times might have an edge. Of course, double-check that before the lock. Otherwise, it'll be pretty hot, in the 80s and close to 90, and there is very little chance of any rain.
API Interesting Factoids: Bay Hill marks the beginning of the Open Qualifying Series in the United States. Three spots will go to the three top finishers not already exempt into the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liverpool. The two other PGA Tour events with three Open berths available are the Wells Fargo Championship and the Memorial.
API Fun Factoids: Gary Koch, formerly with NBC, was a two-time winner, in 1977 and 1984, and Paul Azinger, currently with NBC, won in 1988. Koch still holds the final-around scoring record of 63 set in 1984. Palmer himself won the tournament in 1971, when it was called the Florida Citrus Invitational and played at Rio Pinar Country Club. Palmer hauled in all of $30,000 for his one-stroke win over Julius Boros.
Key Stats to Winning at Bay Hill
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee -- added this year because of the wind
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Par-3 Efficiency 200-225
Past Champions
2012 - Scottie Scheffler
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton
2019 - Francesco Molinari
2018 - Rory McIlroy
2017 - Marc Leishman
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Matt Every
2014 - Matt Every
2013 - Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile
In the past six years, the winning score exceeded 12-under only once -- McIlroy at 18-under. Leishman was 11-under, Molinari at 12, Hatton at 4, DeChambeau at 11 and Scheffler at 5. With the wind forecast the way it, don't be suprised to see single digits again. Last year, Scheffler led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. DeChambeau ranked ninth the year before and Hatton was second in 2020. All three of them were top-eight in SG: Tee-to-Green. All three of them were decent but not elite on the greens, ranking between 15th and 21st in SG: Putting. We mentioned above how DeChambeau got 10 of his 11-under strokes on the par-5s. Well get this: Scheffler shot 11-under on the par-5s and won at 5-under, meaning he played the par-3s and 4s and 6-over! As easy as the par-5s are, that's how hard the par-3s are, all 200 yards or more. Scheffler played the par-3s at even, which is very good. The year before, DeChambeau beat Lee Westwood by one stroke, but he shot 4-under on the par-3s compared to Westwood's 2-over. This year, the over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com was set at 279.5 -- 8.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
***These picks were made before tee times were announced. As of this writing, it appears late/early tee times will have an edge with the windy weather.
Tier 1 Values
Scottie Scheffler - $10,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +900)
Sidestepping Rahm with the way he's playing is not normally recommended. But he has played this tournament only once -- last year's tie for 17th -- and he's priced $600 more than Scheffler. Sure, Rahm has won five of his past nine worldwide starts, but Scheffler won just three weeks ago himself, at Phoenix, and is close enough to Rahm to overtake him for No. 1 in the world, even without winning.
Rory McIlroy - $10,600 (+900)
Like Scheffler, McIlroy is close enough to the top two in the rankings that he can also return to No. 1 this week, although he would need to win. The good news for McIlroy is, he's already done that, in 2018. That was part of a five-year run of top-10s that ended with last year's tie for 13th. McIlroy has not been great in his two PGA Tour starts in 2023 and therefore could be a bit under the radar and perhaps lower-rostered. But unlike many other top players, he's always come to Bay Hill -- designated event or not -- as an homage to Arnold Palmer. The tournament means a lot to him.
Collin Morikawa - $9,500 (+1800)
Morikawa put a disappointing 2022 in the rear-view mirror with a pair of podium finishes in Hawaii to start the new year. Then, after an uncharacteristic missed cut at Phoenix, he rebounded with a tie for sixth at the Genesis. Morikawa still has short-game and putting issues, but he's ranked top-eight in Strokes Gained: Approach, Tee-to-Green and Total. He finished ninth in his most recent Bay Hill start in 2020.
Tier 2 Values
Will Zalatoris - $9,400 (+2000)
Zalatoris is still rounding into form after missing 4+ months with two herniated disks in his back. It wasn't until his fourth start of 2023 that he began to look like his old self, finishing fourth at the Genesis two weeks ago. Zalatoris is one of the elite drivers in the game, ranked sixth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. But in the past year, he's also improved his putting exponentially, moving from 164th in SG: Putting last year at this time to 27th now.
Xander Schauffele - $9,200 (+2200)
It was a bit of a double-take to see the No. 6 player in the world just a stone's throw from the $8000s. Sure, Schauffele didn't have a great week at the Genesis (T33) but he opened the year T3-T13-T10. Like a number of top guys, Schauffele has not been a Bay Hill regular, with his only appearance a T24 three years ago. He is such a strong driver, he should be able to navigate the wind better than most. After that, Schauffele is ranked third in SG: Approach and seventh in Tee-to-Green.
Patrick Cantlay - $9,100 (+2000)
Like his good friend Schauffele, Cantlay seems a bit underpriced. He is a superb driver, ranked 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee. He's also third in greens in regulation and 19th in one of our key stats this week: approaches from 200+ yards. Cantlay had a slow start to the year but is coming off solo third at Riviera.
Jason Day - $8,500 (+2500)
Day has delivered three top-10s in a row, including at two long tracks in Torrey Pines and Riviera. He hasn't played especially well at Bay Hill in recent years. But he did win there in 2016 and had three other top-25s around that time. Day is ranked in the top-30 in every strokes-gained category but Around-the-Green in what is becoming a renaissance season for the 35-year-old.
Tyrrell Hatton - $8,300 (+3500)
At this price and with his course history, Hatton will be a popular play. He won here in 2020, was runner-up last year and was fourth back in 2017. His win came in horrible weather when 4-under was the winning score. Hatton tied for sixth at Phoenix, so he's also on form. He's ranked top-20 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green.
Tier 3 Values
Rickie Fowler - $7,700 (+6500)
Fowler is an elite seventh on Tour in SG: Approach, and he's also 15th in Tee-to-Green and Total Driving, and 18th in GIR. Putting had been his big road block, but he's gotten that inside the top-100 on Tour. Fowler is coming off three straight top-20s that have moved him to 70th in the world -- within shouting distance of the top-50. He has made seven straight Bay Hill cuts.
Tommy Fleetwood - $7,500 (+7000)
Fleetwood has come to Bay Hill the past six years. He's had three top-10s, was 20th last year and has missed only one cut. It's one of his better U.S.-based tournaments, though he's also coming off a T20 at Riviera two weeks ago. Fleetwood is ranked 50th on Tour in SG: Approach, but he is really excelling closer to the hole -- second in Around-the-Green and 17th in Putting.
Gary Woodland - $7,400 (+9000)
Woodland is not the player he was five years ago, but what is attractive about this week is he still is a good driver, which takes on added emphasis in the expected windy conditions. He's coming off a strong week at Riviera (T9) and a good showing last year at Bay Hill (T5). Woodland's short game and putting have a lot to be desired, but that skill set may take a bit of a downgrade this week considering the weather factors.
Tom Hoge - $7,300 (+10000)
Hoge seems priced a little low for the No. 30 golfer in the world, but we've seen that a lot with him. It's true he doesn't deliver every week, but he tied for 14th at Riviera last time out. Hoge's forte is his iron play. He's ranked second on Tour in SG: Approach and he's 29th in approaches from 200+. He's also a very good driver. Hoge has played Bay Hill four times and he's made three cuts, including T32 last year and a best of T15 three years ago.
Long-Shot Values
Patrick Rodgers - $6,900 (+18000)
Rodgers has made his past five Bay Hill cuts -- they've come when the scores have been really low and really high. So he can handle just about anything the course and conditions throw at him. Rodgers has made just one of four cuts so far in 2023, but it was a T14 at Phoenix.
Danny Willett - $6,800 (+25000)
There's always risk when taking Willett. One minute he can look like the top-10 player he used to be; other times, far from it. But he's back inside the top-100 after three straight made cuts, including a top-20 at the Genesis. Willett definitely gets it done with his short game -- he's fifth on Tour in scrambling and 19th in SG: Putting. But he's also 36th in approaches from 200+.
Alex Smalley - $6,700 (+25000)
Smalley is elite in no one discipline, but he's better than average in every strokes-gained category, plus he's ranked 25th in greens in regulation. He's also better than the norm in approaches outside of 200 yards. Smalley has made 10 of 13 cuts this season, though one of the misses came last time out at the Genesis. He tied for 38th in his Bay Hill debut a year ago.
Zach Johnson - $6,500 (+35000)
This will be Johnson's 20th visit to Bay Hill and he's missed the cut only once (2010). Johnson has had quite a few lean years of late but he's always managed to make it to Saturday this week. This year, despite his Ryder Cup captain duties, Johnson is playing quite well. He hasn't missed a cut in four 2023 starts, including T32 at Phoenix and T12 last week at the Honda. If Johnson has a good week, it'll likely be because of his putter -- he's ranked 15th on Tour in SG: Putting.
Online wagering is available in Ohio and will be in Massachusetts in short order! Get in on the action with the best Ohio Sports Betting Promos and Massachusetts Sports Betting Promos.
