2024 Valero Texas Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on April 3, 2024

Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

We're just one week away from The Masters, but we before we turn our attention on the first major championship of the year, this week we have the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. With many players not wanting to take three weeks off in between THE PLAYERS and next week, we have a stronger field than usual headlined by Rory McIlroy as the tournament favorite at 9-1 odds as one of nine of the top-20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking teeing it up.

Last year, Corey Conners -- at 17-1 -- picked up his second PGA Tour win with a one-shot victory over Sam Stevens.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday.

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Course Overview

Par 72, 7,438 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Valero Texas Open Winners since 2019

SG: Off-the-Tee: 15.0
SG: Approach: 7.3
SG: Around-the-Green: 27.3
SG: Putting: 22.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.8
Driving Distance: 26.0
Driving Accuracy: 18.8

TPC San Antonio has a nice mix of longer and shorter holes with three par-4s over 460 yards and five under 410 yards, and it doesn't tend to favor the bombers or the straighter hitters. Off the tee, players are faced with narrow fairways that average under 30 yards wide as well as non-penal rough. Tee to green play stands out from the statistics above as a key metric, with the winner ranking fifth or better in the category since 2017. There are a lot of elevation changes around the course and runoffs/collection area, so saving par with your short game will be important. I'll also target those that are quality wedge players, as we'll see a lot of approach shots from inside 125 yards.

San Antonio Specialists

The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC San Antonio over the last five years (minimum two appearances):

Two-time Valero champion Conners has never missed the cut across his five appearances, and he's dominated the venue with his iron play by leading the field in SG: Approach in each of his victories. Following a slow start to the year, he's kicked it into a higher gear recently with three top-25s over his last four starts and comes in tied as the eighth choice on the board at 28-1 odds. Right behind Conners on the list is another event champion in Hoffman, who won back in 2016. His track record here is as good as it gets, as he finished runner-up in 2019 and 2021 and has 12 top-15 results across 17 appearances. Although he's missed his last three cuts, that's more than factored into his 110-1 odds, and he flashed his old form with a runner-up finish in Phoenix in February.

Tee-to-Green Tacticians

These five golfers have gained the most strokes from tee to green per round over their last 20 rounds:

Matsuyama has looked like his old self this year, as evidenced by him leading the category by over half a stroke per round. That helped him pick up his first win in over two years at Riviera, and he now has four top-15 finishes over his last six starts. Matsuyama enters the week at 22-1 odds, and he's coming off his best finish at the event last year, where he finished T15. Meanwhile, Glover checks in on both lists due to his success at the course with three top-20s over his last four trips on top of coming off his best finish of the season at the Valspar. While the results haven't followed last summer's success, statistically he's played well as he ranks 23rd in SG: Approach this season and 13th from tee to green.

Valero Texas Open: Outright Picks

Collin Morikawa (25-1)

Morikawa will be making his first appearance at TPC San Antonio and should be a good course fit with his steady all-around game. We can see from the stats above that his tee-to-green game is in good from, and he's posted three top-20s across six events this year.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (45-1)

At a venue where short game play is important, it's difficult to overlook Bezuidenhout, who is one of the best putters on Tour. It feels like just a matter of time until the 29-year-old gets his first Tour win, as he's coming off back-to-back top-15s and was also top-10 in SG: Approach here last year.

Eric Cole (50-1)

Cole hasn't been able to replicate the high bar he set in his rookie season, but he hasn't been in bad form by any means with top-25s in over half of his starts. He ranked seventh in SG: Approach last week.

Valero Texas Open: Top-10 Wagers

Keith Mitchell (11-2)

I hit a top-10 wager with Taylor Moore last week, and I'll start the next round with Mitchell, who has results of T26 and T17 at TPC San Antonio. Mitchell has gained strokes on approach in six straight tournaments, including leading the field in the category at the Valspar two weeks ago.

Sam Ryder (9-1)

Considering Ryder finished just two back here last year, it's hard not to like the value at this price. Although he doesn't have a top-10 this year, he's made four straight cuts and finished T16 at THE PLAYERS. He was also fifth in SG: Approach last week.

Matti Schmid (11-1)

Schmid had a rough start to the year with six consecutive missed cuts, but he's turned it around since, finishing no worse than T26 across his last four events. Schmid finished T46 here last year despite ranking fourth-to-last in SG: Putting.

Valero Texas Open: Head-to-Head Matchups

Matt Fitzpatrick (-120) over Harris English

I expect Fitzpatrick to keep the momentum going following a fifth-place finish at TPC Sawgrass in which he was second in SG: Off the tee. Not only is he the superior golfer in this matchup, this isn't a course that English seems to care for. He's skipped the event the last few years and has yet to post a top-25 across five appearances, having last missed the cut in 2019.

Tommy Fleetwood (-110) over Brian Harman

Fleetwood has to work his way into contention at some point this season, doesn't he? He's only played four times but does have a top-10 finish and had a respectable T35 at TPC Sawgrass in his last start. Harman is a fade for me this week as he's coming off a missed cut and has missed two of his last three cuts here.

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