2023 3M Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on July 25, 2023 7:52PM EST

3M Open Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads back stateside for the fifth installment of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.

Following a pair of events in Europe -- including an Open Championship that Brian Harman ran away with -- many of the Tour's best players will rest for the final two weeks of the regular season to prepare for the FedExCup Playoffs. This week's field is headlined by a trio of co-favorites -- Tony Finau, Sungjae Im and Cameron Young -- at 16-1 odds.

Last year, tournament favorite Finau -- at 12-1 -- defeated Im and Emiliano Grillo by three shots and notched his third PGA Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:45 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 71, 7,431 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: All 3M Open Champions

SG: Off-the-Tee: 29.0
SG: Approach: 7.0
SG: Around-the-Green: 30.8
SG: Putting: 22.0
SG: Tee-to-Green: 11.3
Driving Distance: 23.5
Driving Accuracy: 28.0

Unlike most courses in this part of the country, water is abundant and comes into play on 13 holes, which can lead to high scores. There are plenty of birdies to be had if you can avoid the wet stuff -- particularly if the wind doesn't kick up -- and the winning score has ranged from 15- to 21-under-par. Although the rough isn't penal, accuracy off the tee will be important to avoid the water hazards. Approach play looks to be the key statistic, with the winner ranking fourth or better in three of the four years this tournament has been held. I'm looking for players with quality all-around games and also targeting those who fare well in the 150-200 yard range, with a lot of approach shots coming from that distance.

Marvelous in Minnesota

The following five golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at TPC Twin Cities.

This will be Im's third trip to the Twin Cities, and in addition to his T2 last year he finished in a share of 15th in 2019. Following a consistent start to the year in which he posted five top-10s by the beginning of May, Im has failed to record one since. He showed some signs of life at Royal Liverpool with a T20, and he will look to carry the momentum into this week from his perch atop the betting board. Also in a bit of a funk is the defending champion, Finau. Since winning in Mexico at the end of April he has failed to record a top-20, and he enters having missed consecutive cuts for the first time in over two years. Nevertheless, Finau has historically played well in the Midwest and in these lesser events, so this is a great spot for him to get back on track.

The Proper Approach

These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Hubbard continues to be one of the best iron players on Tour, ranking 13th in SG: Approach this season. He's heated up this summer, posting four top-10s over his last seven events. Hubbard finished T16 in his lone appearance here in 2021, and at 55-1, he seems to be slightly overlooked by the oddsmakers. Priced just slightly better at 45-1 is Rai, who will making his first appearance here. His strengths -- driving accuracy and iron play -- should make him a solid course fit. He ranked top-5 in SG: Approach in two of his last four tournaments and notched a top-10 in both. If his irons are true this week, he could contend for his first PGA Tour win.

3M Open Bets: Outright Picks

Sepp Straka (22-1)

Bettors often don't like taking a golfer who won recently, but we did watch Finau go back-to-back in the Midwest last year. Straka followed up his win at the John Deere Classic with a T2 at The Open, and sometimes you just have to ride the wave. He was second in SG: Approach last week, and we know he's capable of getting hot and going low.

Sahith Theegala (45-1)

Theegala missed both cuts in Europe -- only his second and third of the season -- and will welcome a return to the United States. While he hasn't stood out this summer, he still has one of the best short games on Tour and seven top-10s this season. He's one of the best players among those who have not won and should leave that group soon.

Lucas Glover (45-1)

Speaking of going with the hot hand, Glover has stormed to life this month after an uninspiring start to the year. He found something with the flat stick in Detroit and managed his third straight top-10 last week despite losing strokes on the greens. He also has a top-10 in this event.

3M Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Vincent Norrman (11-2)

After hitting a top-10 bet with Young last week, I'll try to keep rolling with Norrman, who picked up his first PGA Tour win two weeks ago at the Barbasol Championship. The 25-year-old rookie is an impressive 13th in Birdie or Better Percentage and sixth in eagles made this season. He has quietly put together seven top-25 finishes over a 13-start span.

Peter Kuest (9-1)

The 25-year-old's rise from Monday qualifiers to Special Temporary Membership has been quick and impressive. He posted a top-5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic earlier this month and already has three top-20s over seven starts. He's shown excellent length off the tee and is capable of making birdies in bunches.

Ryan Gerard (12-1)

Gerard has notched a couple top-5s, one at another water-filled course in PGA National and the other last week. He's a solid 67th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season -- not bad for someone who was playing on the PGA Tour Canada at this time last year.

3M Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Justin Thomas (-120) over Ludvig Aberg

The last time we saw Thomas shoot a round in the 80s in a major championship, he bounced back with a top-10 at the Travelers the following week. We should see an extremely motivated JT over the next two weeks, as he is trying to secure spots both in the playoffs and on the Ryder Cup team. Aberg has been strong off the tee but shaky with his wedges and in the short game.

Stephan Jaeger (-110) over Ryan Fox

Fox has been solid but unspectacular thus far -- he has made 9-of-10 cuts but doesn't have a top-10. He's also very sporadic off the tee, hitting less than half of fairways, and that could get him into trouble here. Jaeger is also a cut-making machine, having played the weekend in 10 straight starts. He posted a top-10 recently at the Deere.

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