This article is part of our On Target series.
It's that time of the season, my friends. We know if our teams are making the playoffs, fighting for them, or are just going to miss. Our 2-6 squads are dead in the water, and our 7-1 teams need to be aiming to gain as many playoff weapons as possible. It's never easy to lay a team to rest, but it must be done. Additionally, it's tempting to not tinker with what we perceive to be our masterpiece squads that are sailing to the playoffs, but improvements can always be made. With that idea in mind, I will examine a few exploitable situations for the fantasy owners.
Cleveland Quagmire
| PLAYER | TARGETS | REC | TD% | YARDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hawkins | 61 | 36 | 1.64 | 470 | 1 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 31 | 16 | 0.00 | 317 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 37 | 24 | 5.41 | 298 | 2 |
| Jordan Cameron | 31 | 13 | 3.23 | 250 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 19 | 9 | 15.79 | 148 | 3 |
| Jim Dray | 11 | 9 | 9.09 | 118 | 1 |
The No. 1 most important player for the fantasy playoffs is Josh Gordon. As the table shows, there isn't really any viable weapons in the Cleveland passing game at the moment. Despite being in the playoff hunt, the Browns' leading WR is scoring a touchdown on less than 2 percent of his targets, and their best red-zone weapon has only 31 total targets. Brian Hoyer has been decently capable at the helm, though he could be replaced by Johnny Manziel sooner than later. I think that the evidence suggests Gordon is going to immediately become the alpha dog in this offense, even if the volume won't necessarily be there. Last season, Gordon received 23 percent of the team's total targets, despite missing two games. The current pass-catching corps do nothing to de-incentivize the Browns coaching staff from restoring Gordon to prominence. There is a chance that in your league, Gordon is owned by a team struggling to make the playoffs, and if that's the case, there are a wide array of players I would give up to own him. In most of my seasonal leagues, I already own Gordon, but in leagues where I'm a lock to make the playoffs, I'm willing to part with any player who isn't elite at his position to acquire him.
Sleepless In Seattle
Something weird is most definitely happening in Seattle. The Seahawks traded their most expensive WR in Percy Harvin, have had problems getting Marshawn Lynch carries and have struggled against middle-table teams like the Rams and Panthers. While I don't doubt Russell Wilson's brilliance, I do think that the coaching staff is a little lost as to what it needs to do on offense. They are throwing slightly more this year than last, and as such, there is an exploitable trend in both seasonal and daily fantasy. Jermaine Kearse has stayed in a deep-threat, low-percentage play role, while Doug Baldwin is clearly the No. 1 in the passing game. In consecutive weeks, Baldwin led the team in receptions and is handling 25 percent of the team's non-Percy Harvin targets. That's close to an elite number for a receiver who comes as cheaply as Baldwin does. In seasonal formats, he may still be on your wire or available for pennies. In daily fantasy, I like him as a week-to-week cash game play because of the talent of his quarterback and his involvement in the passing game. While our main focus should be on acquiring season changers like Gordon, getting players like Baldwin who provide a safe week-to-week floor is important for teams fighting for a final playoff spot.
Studman Cometh
The name Stedman Bailey is probably not too familiar to most NFL fans who don't follow college football. Bailey was teammates with Tavon Austin in college at West Virginia before the tandem was drafted to the Rams. Bailey was actually more productive than Austin in college, out-gaining him by more than 300 yards and scored TWENTY-FIVE touchdowns to Tavon's 12 in their final seasons. Bailey is unquestionably the better player and with an injury to Brian Quick, it appears that Bailey will take over as the lead receiver for the Rams. Quick had a 16 percent market share before suffering a season-ending injury, but outside of Kenny Britt, no other Rams WR has more than 30 targets. Austin Pettis and Tavon Austin have proved that they are nothing more than role players, and it would behoove the Rams organization to figure out what they have in Bailey. I'm making him a priority add in all deeper formats. While on the surface it seems that no one on the Rams is an option in standard 12-team leagues, volume can work wonders, and it's not an impossibility that Bailey is a top-24 WR from Week 9 to the end of the season.
