Historical Fantasy Draft Pick Chart: Computing Draft Pick Trade Value

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Updated on August 5, 2010 3:41PM EST

We've had a lot of questions from callers on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today (which airs 11 am to 2 pm ET on XM 147 / Sirius 211) about trading draft picks. I put together the following charts on the historical value of draft slots based on research I did for a story last year about the value of taking receivers in the first round. I'm remiss I didn't post this last year. I haven't updated the data to include the 2009 season (it uses data from 1998 to 2008), but I don't think last year changed much. You shouldn't take these numbers as gospel, it just gives you a general feel for the expected worth of a draft pick. I haven't seen a similar comparison online (if you see one email me at [email protected] that uses similar historical values). I've seen charts, like this one at ESPN, that show the value of players in the NFL Draft. That chart includes non-fantasy players like offensive lineman and defensive players, but it's also good for comparison. Now for the fine print. I used average draft position (ADP) from the thousands of leagues that draft on MyFantasyLeague.
I used the following league parameters in the math: 12-team league with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and 1 K. The data below does not include any defense (which I always draft with one of my last two picks anyway. Their performance is very random year to year and the spread between the top producers and bottom is just too low. Plus you're probably not going to use this chart to see what kind of kickers or defenses you'll get in a trade. Of course, the exception is if you have a league that has a lot of points for team defense or IPDs. But I hate those leagues anyway - fantasy is about individual players!). There would be 84 players taken in this hypothetical league, but listed the picks out 20 rounds just so you can see the historical comparison. I used this typical fantasy league scoring system: (4 points passing TD, 6 points rushing or receiving TD, 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing or receiving and no points gained or lost for interceptions, turnovers or receptions) VBD = Value Based Drafting. This number is the number of fantasy points above the replacement level (in this example, there are 24 running backs, so VBD = value over the 25th-placed running back in fantasy points). I also included the average VBD of each position at each draft slot (0* = no player drafted). There's a lot of variance in these numbers. For example, there have only been four QBs taken on average in the top five picks (ADP of 5 or better). Two of those four quarterbacks went down with injury, so the small sample size says a QB taken in the top five is a bust 50 percent of the time. There's similar small sample sizes in each pick as there may be only a handful of each position taken at any one specific draft slot. So don't go too crazy thinking historically it's terrible to take a RB with the 23rd overall pick (VBD = 5). To minimize the variance, I averaged the two picks above and two picks below to come with a "Trade Pick Value." It's very plausible that most leagues went +/- two players compared to average, so this helps smooth out some of the variance. I also added in a column on average age for each draft slot for fun. I have no clue if it has any relevance, but it's interesting that top picks are usually younger and middle round picks are older before the average age gets younger again in the late rounds.

A real world example of this would be Maurice Jones Drew's trade in the Sirius XM Fantasy Football Celebrity Draft. MJD was taken with the third pick. MJD the fantasy owner had the 8th pick in the first round and made a trade for himself (yes, this gets confusing). MDJ agreed to trade his 8th pick for the himself and swap second round picks while throwing in a fourth-round pick as well. More specifically, he traded the 8th, 16th and 41st picks for the 3rd, 22nd and 209th pick. The value of the 8th, 16th and 41st picks = 603 "Trade Pick Value" points. The value of the 3rd, 22nd and 209th pick (MJD got a last round pick to complete the deal) = 477 points. So MJD paid a steep price to trade for himself. Most of the value lost was throwing in the fourth-round pick. The Sirius XM draft starts three WRs, so it's not a perfect fit. But it shows how you can use this as a guide.

Rnd	Pick	Trade Pick Value	Fantasy Pts (AVG)	Avg. RB VBD	Avg. WR VBD	Avg. QB VBD	Avg. Age
1	1	255	282	147	0*	0*	26.8
1	2	240	256	132	0*	4	25.6
1	3	241	227	74	0*	28	26.5
1	4	231	196	52	55	-61	27.3
1	5	215	242	96	75	38	28.2
1	6	215	234	96	65	64	25.7
1	7	218	176	42	55	-64	27.2
1	8	219	229	92	76	78	26.0
1	9	217	207	49	56	79	27.3
1	10	220	249	102	123	97	25.4
1	11	212	225	70	77	135	26.2
1	12	214	190	53	83	2	27.7
2	13	205	189	55	58	48	27.9
2	14	194	218	109	109	-54	28.2
2	15	197	202	85	53	-8	25.3
2	16	202	171	57	45	0*	27.9
2	17	202	205	68	3	58	25.9
2	18	194	216	75	29	46	28.5
2	19	203	217	38	64	150	28.7
2	20	202	161	40	31	-15	26.9
2	21	197	218	59	36	41	26.3
2	22	182	198	71	67	-47	28.5
2	23	179	191	5	49	26	27.7
2	24	168	145	27	16	28	27.4
3	25	155	141	10	-27	-11	28.6
3	26	151	163	18	33	40	29.7
3	27	161	135	5	4	-7	26.7
3	28	156	174	62	49	-76	26.7
3	29	158	191	83	43	44	27.2
3	30	166	116	8	0	-173	28.8
3	31	161	173	43	18	-1	29.7
3	32	151	175	37	17	26	28.3
3	33	163	151	14	23	-40	28.9
3	34	154	140	60	6	-106	27.9
3	35	150	176	90	14	-28	29.3
3	36	144	128	23	-2	-204	25.7
4	37	153	158	26	36	0	28.5
4	38	158	121	14	-29	1	26.6
4	39	168	182	74	22	83	27.3
4	40	175	205	81	69	60	28.0
4	41	182	173	121	27	-5	26.4
4	42	177	197	68	-18	72	26.6
4	43	172	153	-4	13	67	28.9
4	44	165	159	43	19	0	27.8
4	45	157	178	28	66	57	26.4
4	46	158	137	35	24	0	25.3
4	47	148	160	0	22	-5	28.4
4	48	135	157	37	10	23	28.1
5	49	142	110	6	-16	0	26.7
5	50	148	114	2	-27	-63	26.0
5	51	143	168	30	21	6	28.5
5	52	154	192	47	70	-29	27.0
5	53	158	131	35	-26	-60	27.0
5	54	147	166	56	-27	48	27.8
5	55	142	132	52	-32	7	28.5
5	56	150	115	5	18	66	28.9
5	57	141	165	49	29	50	28.4
5	58	141	172	94	3	28	26.8
5	59	141	123	66	-1	0	28.9
5	60	142	128	7	7	-73	27.4
6	61	139	119	-31	-3	76	29.5
6	62	139	169	93	8	19	28.2
6	63	136	157	38	0	3	27.6
6	64	147	121	-20	0	-24	28.2
6	65	143	116	24	34	-87	28.6
6	66	139	170	16	34	22	26.5
6	67	136	152	1	-38	47	26.3
6	68	135	136	-16	39	51	27.7
6	69	120	106	5	10	-122	25.3
6	70	111	112	-2	27	0	29.1
6	71	113	92	-12	5	0	30.2
6	72	114	110	22	9	-167	26.3
7	73	117	147	69	-21	41	27.7
7	74	119	109	-8	32	-158	26.3
7	75	124	125	51	-14	-91	26.8
7	76	128	105	23	-9	-56	26.1
7	77	131	136	-1	3	-73	28.9
7	78	131	165	-40	16	-23	29.0
7	79	133	126	-31	11	-66	29.4
7	80	134	122	-17	-16	52	28.0
7	81	120	115	41	-14	-86	28.0
7	82	120	142	43	3	-108	24.6
7	83	122	93	-49	15	-58	28.2
7	84	131	130	-65	11	44	28.9
8	85	129	131	137	7	-16	26.3
8	86	132	161	16	98	-17	26.4
8	87	135	132	4	-8	-9	27.3
8	88	132	105	24	1	0	28.0
8	89	125	148	12	-34	-2	28.2
8	90	123	115	77	16	-85	27.8
8	91	129	125	-6	-13	59	26.4
8	92	122	124	-19	13	21	27.4
8	93	125	132	82	-32	16	28.1
8	94	120	115	19	-23	-18	27.2
8	95	115	132	-26	-1	55	28.4
8	96	114	97	-46	23	31	26.8
9	97	107	100	-32	-23	4	26.6
9	98	101	126	-83	19	14	29.9
9	99	115	80	-15	49	-263	27.6
9	100	112	102	-16	-9	-34	27.4
9	101	106	167	46	2	1	27.3
9	102	109	86	-81	-6	-166	27.2
9	103	115	95	37	-35	-52	28.8
9	104	100	97	-38	9	-54	24.6
9	105	109	133	37	-7	-104	27.2
9	106	113	89	-13	-49	-163	28.8
9	107	124	132	-16	-48	-23	27.1
9	108	118	115	-100	14	10	26.7
10	109	119	150	10	34	-28	25.1
10	110	114	106	51	-32	0	28.4
10	111	108	95	-36	12	73	25.3
10	112	95	106	-54	51	-40	28.0
10	113	92	84	-2	-4	0	26.3
10	114	94	82	-4	-4	-104	30.3
10	115	102	94	0	-16	-102	27.9
10	116	100	102	-4	-41	-117	28.0
10	117	109	147	-1	2	51	27.8
10	118	106	77	-19	-11	-53	25.7
10	119	106	124	46	-34	40	28.1
10	120	98	78	-13	-59	-93	27.1
11	121	105	104	49	-8	-109	25.6
11	122	98	109	-90	-2	-55	25.3
11	123	94	111	52	-4	79	28.8
11	124	92	88	-54	-38	-91	25.9
11	125	81	56	12	-81	0	29.1
11	126	77	96	-79	31	0	26.2
11	127	84	52	-60	-92	127	29.7
11	128	89	94	-7	-12	-80	27.4
11	129	91	123	7	-27	-53	25.5
11	130	105	81	61	-30	-186	26.0
11	131	103	105	29	-5	-60	27.4
11	132	95	122	0	-16	-12	27.0
12	133	99	84	-12	-4	-125	27.4
12	134	101	82	0	-40	-59	26.5
12	135	92	100	-1	-7	-121	29.3
12	136	92	115	99	1	-70	26.0
12	137	89	79	-43	71	-68	28.7
12	138	84	84	22	-37	-127	26.1
12	139	75	69	0	-52	-68	29.5
12	140	71	72	31	-68	-160	27.6
12	141	75	72	-78	-57	0	25.8
12	142	86	61	-17	-68	-176	27.8
12	143	93	99	-2	-41	9	27.1
12	144	98	125	8	-48	-36	27.1
13	145	100	106	0	-26	-75	31.6
13	146	94	101	-27	-24	-99	26.1
13	147	86	70	-47	-5	-117	27.8
13	148	77	70	15	-73	-87	28.7
13	149	76	83	-53	-20	-89	26.9
13	150	78	59	-35	-30	-222	24.8
13	151	79	98	-19	34	-26	25.7
13	152	73	78	-68	-55	-71	28.3
13	153	80	77	0	-39	-124	29.4
13	154	78	54	4	-56	-225	26.2
13	155	76	95	1	-8	50	28.7
13	156	78	84	-56	-32	-63	25.1
14	157	82	72	-25	-40	143	28.2
14	158	78	85	0	-31	-17	27.0
14	159	78	76	-5	-10	-137	26.5
14	160	74	75	-17	-36	-89	27.1
14	161	74	80	-59	27	-91	25.4
14	162	73	52	-65	-66	-104	26.2
14	163	73	87	146	-31	-83	31.9
14	164	73	70	-18	-26	0	26.7
14	165	77	75	-43	-36	148	27.5
14	166	73	83	-20	-9	-9	28.9
14	167	78	70	4	-24	-129	27.8
14	168	76	65	-82	-14	0	25.3
15	169	73	97	14	-10	-94	27.2
15	170	79	63	-63	27	-210	28.1
15	171	76	71	-51	-22	-67	26.2
15	172	76	97	-46	27	-101	27.5
15	173	74	52	-99	-58	153	25.4
15	174	77	96	-30	38	-102	27.5
15	175	64	54	-56	-44	0	25.9
15	176	66	86	-7	-22	-182	28.3
15	177	57	34	-3	-27	-255	25.9
15	178	60	62	-32	-45	0	26.3
15	179	55	50	-96	-51	156	27.9
15	180	62	67	0	-98	-13	28.6
16	181	59	63	-57	-17	-57	26.9
16	182	61	67	-51	-47	158	26.2
16	183	58	48	0	-63	-91	26.1
16	184	59	61	-130	-8	-271	27.5
16	186	58	50	-64	-7	-70	27.1
16	187	61	69	-56	-84	-4	27.8
16	188	60	63	-52	-49	0	27.5
16	189	60	64	-7	-63	-76	25.7
16	190	54	56	-104	-47	-141	28.1
16	191	52	49	-11	-56	-254	27.4
16	192	48	41	-86	28	-143	28.2
17	193	49	53	-1	-46	-183	27.4
17	194	51	41	-60	-64	-236	27.8
17	195	60	64	4	-47	0	26.4
17	196	59	57	-65	0	-172	27.0
17	197	62	86	-19	3	-87	27.5
17	198	62	48	-74	-20	0	26.1
17	199	60	56	-40	-75	-264	27.1
17	200	58	65	-45	-73	-198	27.4
17	201	61	47	0	-87	169	29.1
17	202	60	73	-48	29	-143	26.1
17	203	59	66	38	-30	0	28.1
17	204	57	52	-21	3	-220	30.3
18	205	53	59	-61	22	0	28.6
18	206	50	37	-91	70	0	25.9
18	207	49	49	-77	-30	-44	27.7
18	208	47	50	-94	-80	-141	25.9
18	209	54	48	-104	-60	0	26.4
18	210	52	49	-63	0	-213	25.3
18	211	55	75	-62	-71	33	26.4
18	212	60	40	-45	-80	-217	26.6
18	213	66	62	-52	0	-220	29.4
18	214	67	72	-15	-84	-154	28.3
18	215	73	83	-30	-62	-144	26.7
18	216	75	77	0	-49	-110	26.5
19	217	74	71	-96	-73	-24	26.3
19	218	70	75	13	-63	0	26.4
19	219	67	65	0	-57	0	27.0
19	220	66	64	-23	-83	-124	28.9
19	221	64	61	-25	-57	-234	26.8
19	222	66	67	-46	0	-155	28.3
19	223	66	65	-17	-48	0	25.1
19	224	68	76	0	-14	-28	26.4
19	225	70	60	-59	-14	0	28.4
19	226	68	73	-60	-1	0	26.7
19	227	69	78	-22	-26	0	27.4
19	228	69	53	-56	-41	0	26.3
20	229	75	83	0	-20	0	29.0
20	230	74	59	0	-14	-187	24.8
20	231	74	101	-26	0	-2	26.0
20	232	73	73	0	0	0	27.7
20	233	71	55	-48	-14	0	24.7
20	234	65	76	0	-12	0	26.4
20	235	62	51	-57	0	0	25.5
20	236	63	72	0	-41	0	25.9
20	237	61	58	0	-107	0	27.4
20	238	62	60	-50	0	0	29.0
20	239	66	66	-56	0	0	26.9
20	240	54	54	0	0	0	25.2