Javon Walker

Walker's a real wild card this season both because of his questionable health and the uncertain development of second-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell. But even though Walker missed eight games last year due to lingering pain in his surgically repaired right knee, the Raiders signed him to a six-year $55 million deal with $16 million in guaranteed money last March. Either Walker passed a physical with flying colors, or Al Davis has gone off the deep end entirely. At 6-3, 215, with good speed, leaping ability and body control, Walker's a downfield playmaker. Walker's best season came with the Packers in 2004, but in Oakland he might be playing with one of the few quarterbacks in the last decade with as much arm strength as Brett Favre. Of course, no one knows yet what the Raiders have in Russell beyond the raw scouting information, and that means little compared to seeing how he fares when bullets are flying. But assuming Russell has even a modicum of poise and decision-making skills, there's a lot of upside here – if, of course, Walker's healthy.

Walker came back a year after tearing his ACL, and it was as if the injury never happened. Walker averaged 15.7 yards per catch with Denver, ever so slightly more than he averaged during his 2004 breakout season in Green Bay, and he hauled in four passes of 40 yards or more, showing he was still a threat to beat defenses downfield. Of some concern is that Walker’s production dropped significantly after Jake Plummer was benched for Jay Cutler, but Cutler’s struggles during his first few starts in the league were to be expected, and with a full training camp as the starter under his belt, we expect Walker and him to be on the same page. Moreover, Cutler has a far better arm than Plummer, and Walker could see more balls down the field as a result. At 6-3 and 215, with good speed, vertical leap and body control, you’d expect Walker to be a frequent red-zone target, but he wasn’t last year, seeing only nine passes thrown his way from inside the 20 and scoring on three. And Walker didn’t see a single target near the goal line, despite his size and athleticism. That he caught eight (and also had a 72-yard TD run) shows that he’s able to score from distance, but it’s difficult to score double-digit touchdowns without more easy ones. Walker’s value then will be tied both to whether the Broncos call his number more often in the red zone and, of course, Cutler’s development as a quarterback. Finally, at press time, the Broncos lack a viable second option in the passing game as an aging Rod Smith, an oft-injured Brandon Stokley and second-year man Brandon Marshall, so barring a free-agent acquisition, expect Walker to receive more than the 126 looks he got a year ago.

What happened to Walker a year ago is a prime example of why players under contract for less than their market value often hold out. One of the top receivers in the league in 2004, Walker skipped the Packers spring minicamps and threatened to skip training camp if he wasn’t rewarded with a contract commensurate with his skills and production. Eventually, he caved in and reported to training camp only to tear his anterior cruciate ligament in the first week of the season. Before the injury, Walker had hoped for a deal in the neighborhood of $9 million a year or more, with a sizeable signing bonus. After the injury, and his subsequent trade to the Broncos, he had to settle for a one-year, $2.15 million deal, with incentives in the event he regains his prior form. Before Walker got hurt, he was considered one of the most dangerous downfield receivers in the game. At 6-3 and 215, with good speed, vertical leap and body control, Walker consistently stretched the field in 2004 – he was tied for second in the league with seven receptions of 40-yards or more – often outjumping defensive backs on underthrown balls by Brett Favre. Walker’s size was also a valuable weapon in the red zone that year – he caught seven touchdowns (tied for fourth) despite just 19 red-zone targets (tied for 11th). Whether Walker can rediscover his prior form is unclear – receivers particularly require strength and stability in the knee joint to make the sharp cuts needed to get open and elude defenders, other receivers who have suffered the injury – Jerry Rice, Lee Evans (in college) – have been able to come back strong the following season. Walker is currently limited to straight-ahead running, but is expected to be ready when the team reports to training camp in July.

At 6-3, 215 pounds, and with good speed, leaping ability and body control, Walker strikes us as a poor man’s Randy Moss, only with less explosiveness and more bulk. Walker beat defenses deep all season in 2004 – he was tied for second in the league with seven receptions of 40-yards or more – often outleaping defensive backs on underthrown balls by Brett Favre. Walker’s size was also a valuable weapon in the red zone – he caught seven touchdowns (tied for fourth) despite just 19 red-zone targets (tied for 11th). Walker also caught two touchdowns on just three targets inside the five, so perhaps the Packers will take better advantage of his size near the goal line this season. Overall, the Packers threw the ball Walker’s way 146 times, good for ninth in the league, and he hauled in a respectable 61 percent. With the Packers not adequately addressing serious defensive deficiencies this offseason (and losing safety Darren Sharper to the Vikings), expect Brett Favre to sling the ball downfield with abandon, and Walker’s looks, especially in the intermediate and deep passing game, to increase. Walker has some competition for passes from Donald Driver (142 targets), but Walker, who has better hands and caught a higher percentage of the passes thrown his way, is more the team’s playmaker. The rosy projections for Walker assume he’ll report to training camp, of course, but at press time, he had already skipped spring minicamps and was holding out for a new contract. We would be surprised if his holdout lasts into the season, however, as the tone of the negotiations isn’t particularly hostile, and the Packers know that he’s underpaid.

Forget those TDs last year. That’s a feat unlikely to be repeated if Walker doesn’t dramatically increase his chances. Walker was targeted just 74 times last year, and his completion rate of 55 percent was the lowest among the Packer receivers. Walker scored a 9 (average is 15) on his pre-draft Wonderlic (IQ) test and predictably has had difficulty grasping the intricacies of the Packer offense.

Someone is going to ride shotgun with Brett Favre and get some numbers (along with Donald Driver) - we just don't know yet if it's Walker or Robert Ferguson. Keep an eye on this second-year receiver.