Trent Green

He had his brain scrambled in the opener last year and never recovered. He’s apparently enthusiastic about playing again. Green was effective throughout his Chiefs career, both in reality and as an underrated source of fantasy production. But he’s not in a Dick Vermeil/Al Saunders offense anymore. Assuming he lands on the Dolphins, and at press time, that’s looking like his most likely destination, he’ll play for new head coach Cam Cameron, who was his QB coach back in the mid-‘90s when both were employed by the Redskins. Cameron did not run a fantasy-friendly offense for QBs last year, but that had a lot to do with LaDainian Tomlinson. Cameron did help turn Drew Brees into a productive fantasy QB when they worked together in San Diego in ’04 and ‘05. Still, we’d expect the Dolphins to ask Green to manage the game, avoid mistakes and lean on their aging defense one last time. The receivers aren’t very good either, and that includes Chris Chambers.

Green finished third in passing yardage last season. So why isn’t he ranked higher? Lots of things changed for the worse this offseason. First, Dick Vermeil, a big proponent of the passing game, was replaced by defensive-minded Herm Edwards. Research the past two years shows that former defensive coaches are more conservative than their offensive counterparts. The impact amounts to a tail or head wind, about 5-to-10 percent more or less stats. When the differences are as extreme as that between Herm and Vermeil, plan on the high end. Edwards is on record saying he plans to run the ball 500 times in 2006; his Jets ran the ball 527 times in 2004. Last year, the Chiefs were ninth in first-down passing. Expect that to change significantly as they will be in the bottom third. Additionally, Green lost offensive guru Al Saunders, who had emphasized downfield passing. The receiving corps has not improved and might decline further given Tony Gonzalez’s age and reliance on his athleticism. The Chiefs were 19th in red-zone pass percentage and should be expected to rank even lower in that category in ’06. Don’t expect Green to be bailed out by a rotten defense that will force a fair number of shootouts; Edwards will get that unit to be average, especially against the pass.

A polished and accurate passer, Green quietly threw for the 11th-highest yardage total in NFL history last season and 27 touchdowns. That makes three consecutive 24-plus touchdown seasons for the quarterback with a higher career YPA mark (7.66) than Peyton Manning. Unlike Manning, Green doesn’t have a trio of stellar wideouts toward whom to aim the ball, but Eddie Kennison spread the field with his speed last season, averaging 17.5 yards per catch, and all-world tight end Tony Gonzalez caught 102 passes. Green also will involve all of his running backs – Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson and Tony Richardson each caught at least 19 passes, as did the departed Derrick Blaylock. Green also has benefited from having one of the worst defensive units in the league (31st). Thus, he has frequently had to shoot it out with opposing offenses. While it’s not likely Kansas City will turn it around completely in 2005, it signed two big-name free-agents in Kendrell Bell and Sammy Knight, traded for Pro Bowl corner Patrick Surtain and drafted play-making linebacker Derrick Johnson with this year’s 15th overall pick. Like Culpepper, Green might find himself not needing to look downfield as often late in games this season. Some might forget that Green was Wally Pipp to Kurt Warner’s Lou Gehrig, but since blowing out his knee in 1999 and opening the door for the two-time MVP, Green hasn’t missed a game due to injury. In sum, Green has one of the most stable skill sets of any quarterback on the board, and he’s durable, which makes him a solid low-risk play once the big three are off the board.

It's hard to think about Green without considering Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez. Providing Holmes and Gonzalez remain healthy, there's every reason to think Green can duplicate his Pro Bowl stats again. He led his team to an NFL-high 484 points, finished second with 4039 passing yards, and threw twice as many TD passes (24) as interceptions (12). The offensive line has been tweaked but remains largely intact. With passing defenses like San Diego and Oakland in the division, expect Green to have another banner year.

Green wasn't much of a fantasy prospect entering last year because, frankly, he was a major disappointment in his first season with the Chiefs (17 touchdowns, 24 interceptions, 71.1 rating). But somehow the veteran QB was able to turn things around last year (26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 92.6 rating), despite the fact that Johnny Morton was a bust, Tony Gonzalez had an off year, and Green himself played the last 10 games of the season with a torn ligament in his ankle. (The ankle has since healed).