Priest Holmes

For two seasons he was a fantasy god, but in all likelihood the Priest Holmes Era has come to an end. The question marks surrounding his health are huge, and even if he is able to return, he will be nothing more than Larry Johnson’s backup. The Chiefs’ offense is still potent though, and their offensive line stellar. The potential is there, however remote, for one more monster fantasy season if Larry Johnson were to get hurt.

We’ve seen Holmes go as high as No. 2 in mock drafts this spring, but that’s far too early in our view, given his age, mileage and injury history. Don’t get us wrong, Holmes was an absolute monster for eight games last year running behind Kansas City’s outstanding offensive line – prorate his numbers over a 16-game season, and he’d have 1,784 rushing yards and a whopping 30 touchdowns. But when you look at what Larry Johnson and Derrick Blaylock did while filling in for the eight games Holmes missed – 930 yards, 16 touchdowns combined – you get the feeling that the line had as much to do with it as Holmes. Holmes will again be the Chiefs starter heading into the season, but unlike last season, Johnson will spell him frequently from the outset. This isn’t a good situation for Holmes because if Johnson outplays him – and there’s a good chance he will given that Holmes is in the declining phase of his career while Johnson is getting better – even coach Dick Vermeil will be hard pressed to ignore that and stick with Holmes. Although Holmes claims to be 100 percent recovered from the knee injury that ended his season and is healthy at press time, it’s hard to look past his long history of injuries from a torn right ACL in college to a sprained left MCL in 1999 with the Ravens, to the right hip injury that ended his 2002 season. In addition, Holmes will turn 32 this October, and though he doesn’t have as much mileage as, for example, a Corey Dillon, his 1,615 carries don’t exactly give him fresh legs, either.

The NFL's TD machine is going to turn 31 in October and has a pretty significant injury history, including not just his hip injury in 2002, but a torn ACL in one knee and sprained MCL in the other. It’s hard to find many running backs who did not significantly decline at Holmes’ age. The top 20 rushers in NFL history have combined for just 14 1,000-yard seasons from age 30 onward. And these are the best running backs ever. Can Holmes beat Father Time as easily as he does opponents in the red zone? In his favor is his relatively low mileage – only 1,419 career carries, but he’s been worked hard as a Chief, with 1,167 touches the last three years. Another positive is the Chiefs’ offensive line, which despite being a little weaker after offseason shuffling, is still among the best in the league. Those who don’t own Holmes are always chagrined by the ease with which he waltzes into the end zone – seemingly untouched on so many of his scores. So some of those touches may be akin to highway miles. But there is evidence of wear and tear. Holmes averaged just 4.4 yards per carry last year, almost a full yard less than in 2002. Holmes’ backups averaged 4.7 yards on their 42 carries. Worse, Holmes averaged just 4.2 yards per carry the last eight games of 2003. And in the third and fourth quarters of all games, less than four yards per pop. It’s almost impossibly hard to pass up Holmes with the first pick in the draft, though. He’s scored 37 TDs in 74 attempts inside the 10 as a Chief (just 6-for-33 his last two years in Baltimore).

Is the hip healthy? Are the Chiefs telling us all that they know? How will Holmes's body react when he takes full contact again? As of July 2003, Holmes is a fantasy question mark, and clearly the toughest call of the first round. We wouldn't select him in the top 5, that's our stance right now. Watch him very closely in training camp.