Jake Plummer

Plummer would be ranked higher in this tier despite his regression in 2005 if not for the lack of confidence Mike Shanahan showed by aggressively acquiring QB Jay Cutler in the April draft. You could make a case for ranking Plummer higher based on the acquisition of WR Javon Walker. Ashlie Lelie was terrible last year, playing Plummer’s bombs like Manny Ramirez plays long fly balls. But his stats and Shanahan’s 2005 tendencies leave little hope for a 2004-styled breakout. Denver was 25th in first-down passing, 29th in pass percentage and 31st in red-zone pass percentage and 15th in converting red-zone passes into TDs. Looking further, Plummer had an 84.7 QB rating on 38 close/late attempts and 83 QB rating on 11-to-20 yard throws. Also ho-hum was his 15.8 percent rate of poor throws. The only great thing about his ’05 was how he killed the blitz, with a 111 QB rating with 11 TDs and no picks on 157 attempts. But the Steelers didn’t buy into it against him in the AFC Championship game, so why should we?

In his second season with the Broncos, Plummer set career highs in passing yards and touchdowns, finishing as the fifth-best fantasy quarterback in the league. Plummer doesn’t have a ton of arm strength, and he’s prone to making bad decisions – he has more career interceptions than touchdowns – but he’s a resourceful player, elusive in the pocket and able to scramble and throw on the move. While his top target, Rod Smith, will be 35 when the season starts, Ashley Lelie emerged as Plummer’s big-play option, averaging more than 20 yards per catch. Second-year man, Darius Watts should also have an increased role, and Jeb Putzier provides a decent pass-catching option at the tight end spot, as well. Finally, Plummer is always good for a couple hundred yards on the ground and a score or two, so be sure to factor that into draft-day projections.

It's Plummer's show now. He had a solid, if unspectacular 2003 when healthy. But Clinton Portis was the focus of every defense, giving Plummer and his receivers more free reign. Many are predicting that the Broncos offense will run the ball in a dominating manner no matter who is the featured back. If true, that would be good news for Plummer. But the Broncos’ success in running with multiple backs has been attributed to their solid line play. The architect of those lines, Alex Gibbs, has left for Atlanta, Denver's receiving corps is aging and Ashley Lelie did not step forward as expected in 2003. Unless the Broncos struck it rich on draft day with some sub-Round 1 picks (and many believe that Tatum Bell has Portis-like explosiveness), Plummer won't have much of a supporting cast. Jake's never been one to carry an offense on his back. In fact, he's did the opposite of that while piling up the INTs during his Cardinals career.

Plummer's fantasy resume is very underwhelming – he's never thrown more than 18 touchdown passes, he's rushed for a modest two touchdowns over the last three seasons, and only once in seven years has Plummer thrown for more TDs than interceptions. And even though Plummer started all 16 games last year and his team had the NFC's third-worst defense (something that usually helps fantasy QBs, as they pile on the garbage-time stats), he didn't finish the year as a top 15 QB in any league we observed. Moreover, we see Plummer handing off the ball a lot in 2003 – with Clinton Portis clearly the featured player in the offense – and as a result we'd be surprised if Plummer managed to collect more than 20 overall touchdowns in 2003.