Torry Holt

Once one of the elite wideouts in the game, Holt’s production has cratered the last several years thanks to advancing age and poor passing environments. There’s nothing the 34-year old Holt can do to get younger, but the move to New England will surely improve his working conditions. At 6-0, 190, Holt has just average size, and he’s no longer as fast or quick as he once was. He’s a first-rate route runner and has good hands, and it wouldn’t surprise us if he quickly earned Tom Brady’s trust as a possession threat. Just keep in mind that Randy Moss is going to get his targets, Julian Edelman emerged last year as a solid replacement for Wes Welker, and Welker himself is likely to be back at some point.

Once one of the most consistent wideouts in NFL history, Holt’s been slowed by nagging injuries in recent years and hurt by the collapse of his team’s offense. Even so, Holt’s missed only two games in his entire career, and last season was the first time since his rookie year that he failed to reach 1,000 yards. After being released by the Rams, Holt will ply his trade in Jacksonville, at this point a lateral move at worst. While coach Jack Del Rio is known as a run-first defense-oriented coach, the Jaguars, thanks in part to a struggling defense, averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game last year (11th). And Holt will be quarterback David Garrard’s undisputed top target. The question is how much does Holt, at age 33, have left in the tank. Judging by last season’s per play numbers, not much. Holt’s 6.7 yards per target ranked him 30th among the 35 100-target wideouts, and he converted just one of his 14 red-zone looks for a score. But last season’s numbers aren’t a great gauge as Marc Bulger was injured and woefully ineffective, running back Steven Jackson missed four games and the entire offense was out of sync. In fact, fellow wide receiver Donnie Avery was slightly worse than Holt (though Avery was also a rookie). In sum, Holt might well have another couple productive years in him, so long as his knees hold up. That he played the full season in 2008 without much time on the injury report and had his best game of the season in Week 17 bode well.

Holt will be 32 when the season starts, about the time when most receivers' skills have begun their gradual and steady erosion. Holt dealt with nagging knee and groin injuries for most of last year as well as a carousel of backup quarterbacks for several games but still managed 93 receptions and 8.0 yards per target (16th among 34 100-target receivers). That Holt performed this well despite those impediments could bode well, but it's hard to see his nagging injuries going away. His impressive run of durability (only two games missed in his career) masks the many games he's played at less than 100 percent health. And quarterback Marc Bulger's durability issues have no such mask – he's missed 14 games the last four seasons. Holt led the league in red-zone looks in 2006 but slipped to 16th in 2007 (18), catching six for scores. He did have seven targets near the goalline (tied for 9th) and brought in four scores, but otherwise coach Scott Linehan, known for throwing to his top receiver from in close, didn't favor Holt particularly. Holt did manage 16 receptions of 20-plus yards (tied for 10th) but only one for 40-plus, an indication he’s not as much of a threat to get deep these days. At 6-0, 190, Holt’s got just average size, but his intelligence, precise route running, excellent change-of-direction ability and good hands make him a very tough cover. At press time, Holt was completely healthy, and so was Marc Bulger – if both stay that way, and Linehan reverts to his red-zone and goal-line target-happy ways, there's still some profit to be had if Holt slips in your draft.

Holt came out of the gate quickly last season, scoring seven touchdowns in his first six games (14.2 yards per catch), and it looked like he was on his way to yet another 1,300-yard season – Holt came into 2006 with an NFL-record six straight. But between a nagging knee injury and the team’s loss of superstar left tackle Orlando Pace, Holt’s production slowed significantly in the second half when he scored just three of his touchdowns and averaged less than 12 yards per catch. Holt is one of the league’s most polished receivers, an excellent route-runner with soft hands, above-average speed and the ability to change directions on a dime. Holt uses his quickness to get off the line and knows how to exploit holes in zone coverages. At 6-0, 190, Holt’s not a small receiver, but he’s not particularly rugged, either, usually opting to go to the turf or run out-of-bounds to avoid contact. Nonetheless, new coach Scott Linehan, who has long had a habit of throwing to his teams’ No. 1 receivers both in the red-zone and at the goal line, targeted Holt a league-leading 30 times from inside the 20, and six times from inside the five (good, for fourth). Holt pulled in nine of his red-zone looks for scores, meaning he scored from long distance only once all year. If Holt gets this many opportunities from in close again, he’s an excellent bet to once again post double-digit touchdowns. One concern is the arrival of 6-5 Drew Bennett via free agency – while Bennett isn’t a major threat to cut into Holt’s league-leading 179 targets, he could cut into some of his looks near the goal line. Holt had offseason arthroscopic surgery on his knee, but is expected to be 100 percent healthy for the start of training camp. Pace should also be ready for camp, and with Marc Bulger at the top of his game, Holt is one of the safer plays at the top of the receiver board.

Holt posted an NFL-record sixth straight 1,300-yard season last year, despite missing two full games with a knee injury, playing hurt in several others and working with three quarterbacks. Of course, the record he broke was his own because no other receiver in NFL history (not Jerry Rice, Randy Moss or Marvin Harrison) has ever had that many yards for five straight seasons. In other words, Holt, whose knee is fine at press time, is perhaps the surest thing on the board at any position. While pass-happy Mike Martz is no longer running the Rams offense, new head coach Scott Linehan isn’t afraid to look down the field, either. He was the architect of Daunte Culpepper’s monster 2004 season, and he just came from Miami where the Gus Frerotte-led Dolphins attack had seven pass plays of more than 50 yards, which tied for the NFL lead. In fact, Holt, who has only had 10 plays of 40-yards or more in the last three seasons combined and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch last year, might find himself running deeper routes under Linehan than he did under Martz. With excellent speed and the ability to run precise routes and change directions without slowing down, Holt can shake defenders almost at will. He’s a master at finding the gaps in zone coverage, and he’s an almost impossible cover one-on-one. Holt isn’t a big receiver, but at 6-0, 190, he’s not slight, either, and isn’t easy to jam at the line. While Holt struggled to get into the end zone earlier in his career, he scored nine touchdowns in 14 games a year ago, 10 in 2004 and 12 in 2003. That might even get better as coach Linehan loves to throw to his receivers inside the five (last season, the Dolphins Chris Chambers led the league in targets inside the five with seven, and the year before that, the Vikings threw to Randy Moss and Marcus Robinson inside the five a combined 18 times). While Holt isn’t the prototypical red zone receiver that Chambers, Moss and Robinson are, he’s taller and more athletic than either Isaac Bruce or Kevin Curtis, so he could see extra looks from in close.

While Holt posting yet another 1,300-yard season shouldn’t surprise anyone by now – after all, he’s the first receiver in NFL history to have five consecutive – it was the 10 or more touchdowns for the second year in a row that Holt-owners had to be happy about. But Holt’s newfound end-zone proficiency could be a long shot to continue, as he’s had to rely primarily on long-distance strikes. Consider that Holt was targeted just 15 times all year in the red zone (22nd in the league), scoring on three, and didn’t get a single look from inside the five. That means that seven of his 10 scores came on plays of 20 yards or longer. Contrast that with Randy Moss, who got eight of his 13 scores from inside the 5. It’s a lot easier to play pitch and catch from five yards out with a 6-4 athletic freak than it is to beat defensive backs on 30-yard pass plays. But if anyone can do it, Holt’s probably the guy. With excellent speed and the ability to run precise routes and change directions without slowing down, Holt can shake defenders almost at will. He’s a master at finding the gaps in zone coverage, and he’s an almost impossible cover one-on-one. Holt isn’t a big receiver, but at 6-0, 190 pounds, he’s not slight, either, and isn’t easy to jam at the line. Playing opposite veteran Isaac Bruce prevents defenses from completely keying on Holt. Although Bruce (148) actually was targeted more than Holt (140) last season, Holt led the league in targets in 2003 with 190, and finished sixth in the league in that department in 2002 with 167, so expect his looks to increase in 2005. And no matter how many balls are thrown his way, Holt will make the most of them, catching 67 percent in 2004 (second in the NFL among receivers with 100 targets or more), and 62 percent in 2003 (fourth). For receptions and yardage, Holt is the surest thing on the board. But for touchdown-heavy leagues, there’s a chance he could disappoint.

Holt reverted to his old ways of being super-productive with yardage and disappointing with TDs during the second half of last year, when he hauled in but three scores on 54 receptions. He’s ranked this high because he caught 53 passes last year on balls that traveled more than 10 yards (the most in football by a wide margin). So the yardage is a given. But 2003 was the first season that Holt caught more than seven TD passes, and his second-half touchdown decline makes us wonder whether double-digit scores are in his immediate future. On the positive side, Holt tied with Tony Gonzalez for the NFL lead in red-zone receptions in ’03 with 13 (good for five TDs). And Holt led the NFL in times targeted, 183, catching an impressive 64 percent of those passes. But Holt’s success is more dependent than ever on the success of Marc Bulger, who similarly struggled the second half of ’03 (10 TDS/13 INTs). The Rams offense is no longer what it was, so there likely will be less TDs to go around. Moreover, coach Mike Martz clearly lost confidence in Bulger as the season wore on (Bulger averaged about six yards per attempt in December and remember the ultra-conservative play-calling in the postseason). It’s possible Martz may again rein in the passing game should Bulger’s struggles continue into the early part of ’04. Expect a lot of catches for Holt, a still healthy yards-per-catch average and a relatively disappointing TD total.

By all accounts, Holt's got the full package of skills -- he's fast, elusive, a hard worker and runs good routes. But for some reason, the Rams can't seem to find a way to get him the ball in the end zone. Holt has topped 1,300 yards the last three years, a major accomplishment (Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens are the only other WRs to do it). But when St. Louis gets in the scoring area, Holt doesn't see the ball. He had just four touchdowns in 2002, and over his four-year career he's got a modest 23. Perhaps the departure of Ricky Proehl, a frequent red-zone target the last three years, will help Holt do more spiking in 2003. A player who touches the ball this often almost has to score more, even if by accident.