This article is part of our Survivor series.
The Seahawks ruined a pot-odds play last week for those who still had one of the top favorites available. But if that was the case, the likely choice was the Bills ... who lost. For the rest of us, the upside of fading the Seahawks for a lesser favorite wasn't there, as we found after going through the pot-odds exercise. Hope it worked out for you too.
Without the officials' help two weeks ago, the Bills would be on a three-game losing streak now. It's hard to know what to make of them, especially the offense. The defense is without Matt Milano and Tre'Davious White, but the offense ... hoo boy. The Bills went from averaging 34. 8 points in their first four games (2nd) to 19.7 in their last three (17th), against the Jaguars, Giants and Patriots.
In my pool, 38 were eliminated (26 on the Bills). Of the original 414 entrants, 94 remain.
On to Week 8.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Bears | 36.8% | 400 | 80.0% | 7.36 |
| Ravens | CARDINALS | 17.6% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.87 |
| LIONS | Raiders | 17.3% | 360 | 78.3% | 3.76 |
| DOLPHINS | Patriots |
The Seahawks ruined a pot-odds play last week for those who still had one of the top favorites available. But if that was the case, the likely choice was the Bills ... who lost. For the rest of us, the upside of fading the Seahawks for a lesser favorite wasn't there, as we found after going through the pot-odds exercise. Hope it worked out for you too.
Without the officials' help two weeks ago, the Bills would be on a three-game losing streak now. It's hard to know what to make of them, especially the offense. The defense is without Matt Milano and Tre'Davious White, but the offense ... hoo boy. The Bills went from averaging 34. 8 points in their first four games (2nd) to 19.7 in their last three (17th), against the Jaguars, Giants and Patriots.
In my pool, 38 were eliminated (26 on the Bills). Of the original 414 entrants, 94 remain.
On to Week 8.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Bears | 36.8% | 400 | 80.0% | 7.36 |
| Ravens | CARDINALS | 17.6% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.87 |
| LIONS | Raiders | 17.3% | 360 | 78.3% | 3.76 |
| DOLPHINS | Patriots | 7.2% | 395 | 79.8% | 1.45 |
| BILLS | Buccaneers | 6.2% | 395 | 79.8% | 1.25 |
| Eagles | COMMANDERS | 4.6% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.24 |
| COWBOYS | Rams | 3.3% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 0.95 |
| Chiefs | Broncos | 3.1% | 355 | 78.0% | 0.68 |
| Texans | PANTHERS | 1.5% | 140 | 58.3% | 0.63 |
| Jets | GIANTS | 0.9% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.38 |
| 49ERS | Bengals | 0.4% | 205 | 67.2% | 0.13 |
| Vikings | PACKERS | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| SEAHAWKS | Browns | 0.2% | 150 | 60.0% | 0.08 |
| COLTS | Saints | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Falcons | TITANS | 0.1% | 127.5 | 56.0% | 0.04 |
| Jaguars | STEELERS | 0.1% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
At first glance, there seem to be plenty of options this week with six teams near 80 percent to win, according to Las Vegas, and another two higher than 70 percent. But among those eight teams, the Dolphins, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys and Chiefs are probably not available.
That leaves the Chargers, Lions and Ravens. We used the Ravens in Week 1, so they're out. The Chargers are the favorite pick among Survivors by a good margin, but the pot-odds risk/reward ratio isn't enough to fade them based on pure principle. However, they aren't far and away a better bet to win than the Lions, so if, like Vegas, you think the Lions' chances are on par with the Chargers', then the ownership difference could be the deciding factor in taking the Lions.
Picks below are in order of preference. We've used the first two listed, so we're on the Lions.
My Picks
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens waxed the Lions last week and now face a one-win Cardinals team that has lost four in a row by an average margin of 15 points. Sure, the Ravens could have a letdown on the road after last week's big clash, but the Cardinals have little offensive firepower (Joshua Dobbs' 5.9 YPA ranks 29th) and defensively rank last in the league in QB pressure percentage (14.4). We used the Ravens in Week 1.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs beat the Broncos 19-8 in Week 6. But that was when the Chiefs were still searching for offensive consistency. They seemed to find it last week against the Chargers. If that offense shows, the Broncos are toast, as Denver's weak defense can't get to the quarterback (29th in pressure percentage, 17.4) in the first place. Even if Patrick Mahomes and company don't push 500 yards again, Kansas City's defense should rein in the Broncos, who have averaged 16 points the last three games. We used the Chiefs in Week 3.
Detroit Lions
The Lions should bounce back at home Monday night after getting shellacked at Baltimore last week. Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to return from a back injury for the Raiders but likely will be gimpy and does not inspire much confidence anyway considering his 7/8 TD/INT. Jared Goff plays better at home and the Raiders struggle to pressure the QB (31st, 16.1 percent), despite Maxx Crosby's exploits. Dan Campbell will make sure the Lions have plenty of juice this week before a home crowd on national TV after coming out flat last week. If not feast, the Lions should at least win comfortably.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are coming off a bye. The Rams are coming off another one-half-of-good-play game in a home loss to the Steelers. One half of good play won't cut it against the Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have one of the best defensive lines in football. Washington is on pace to allow nearly 100 sacks (97, to be exact). Washington took Philly to overtime in Week 4, but not this time. Perhaps the one pause is that the game is at Washington.
Miami Dolphins
Did the Patriots turn a corner? Or are the Bills just that bad? Even if we give the Pats the benefit the doubt, Miami has too much for New England to keep up. The Dolphins beat the Patriots in Week 2 in a game that wasn't as close as the score (24-17). Miami should play better at home than it did in last week's loss at Philadelphia.
Los Angeles Chargers
Losers of two in a row, the Chargers are not playing well. The Bears won two of their last three, though last week it was against a Raiders team without a competent quarterback. And even then, the Bears' defense only had one sack. And that's really where the problem lies in this one. Backup QB Tyson Bagent, who is expected to start again this week for Justin Fields, did enough last week, but it's hard to see him keeping pace with a Chargers offense that should get back on track against a weak Bears defense.
Notable Omission:
Buffalo Bills
Even if the Bills were available (used Week 6), I wouldn't be eager to use them this week. It's not just the defense, which is missing the aforementioned Milano and White, the offense has been lackluster as well. The Buccaneers have lost three of four and Buffalo doesn't seem like a place to turn it around, but the way the Bills are going, who knows?
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