This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was rather uneventful with the Dolphins and Lions — backed by more than 80 percent of Survivors — winning easily. The Commanders took down a chunk of the public, though I don't know why anyone would have picked them (even though I thought they would win).
The Bills' loss in London killed some Survivors too, though, again, not sure why some looked at that as a good spot to take Buffalo.
In my pool, just 13 were eliminated (seven on Buffalo). Of the original 414, 154 remain.
On to Week 6.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Giants | 32.8% | 737.5 | 88.1% | 3.92 |
| DOLPHINS | Panthers | 25.0% | 737.5 | 88.1% | 2.99 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 14.2% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 2.32 |
| RAMS | Cardinals | 13.9% | 270 | 73.0% | 3.76 |
| Eagles | JETS | 7.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.00 |
| JAGUARS | Colts | 1.7% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.60 |
| 49ers | BROWNS | 1.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.37 |
| RAIDERS | Patriots | 1.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.42 |
| BENGALS | Seahawks | 0.5% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.20 |
| Vikings | BEARS | 0.4% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.17 |
| Lions | BUCCANEERS | 0.4% | 150 | 60.0% | 0.16 |
| Ravens | TITANS | 0.4% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.14 |
| Saints | TEXANS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
| FALCONS | Commanders | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| Cowboys | CHARGERS | 0.1% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.05 |
Last week was rather uneventful with the Dolphins and Lions — backed by more than 80 percent of Survivors — winning easily. The Commanders took down a chunk of the public, though I don't know why anyone would have picked them (even though I thought they would win).
The Bills' loss in London killed some Survivors too, though, again, not sure why some looked at that as a good spot to take Buffalo.
In my pool, just 13 were eliminated (seven on Buffalo). Of the original 414, 154 remain.
On to Week 6.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Giants | 32.8% | 737.5 | 88.1% | 3.92 |
| DOLPHINS | Panthers | 25.0% | 737.5 | 88.1% | 2.99 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 14.2% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 2.32 |
| RAMS | Cardinals | 13.9% | 270 | 73.0% | 3.76 |
| Eagles | JETS | 7.4% | 270 | 73.0% | 2.00 |
| JAGUARS | Colts | 1.7% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 0.60 |
| 49ers | BROWNS | 1.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.37 |
| RAIDERS | Patriots | 1.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.42 |
| BENGALS | Seahawks | 0.5% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.20 |
| Vikings | BEARS | 0.4% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.17 |
| Lions | BUCCANEERS | 0.4% | 150 | 60.0% | 0.16 |
| Ravens | TITANS | 0.4% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.14 |
| Saints | TEXANS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
| FALCONS | Commanders | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| Cowboys | CHARGERS | 0.1% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
With two highly popular teams and two others in the low teens in terms of pick percentage, there is no pot-odds play this week. (One of these weeks we'll get to use the strategy.) Buffalo would be our top choice this week even if we hadn't used the Dolphins and Chiefs already. Those who have used the Bills (unless it was last week) have plenty of options, though.
My Picks
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are coming off an upset loss to the Jaguars across the pond and have the Giants to use as a punching bag this week in Orchard Park. Perhaps Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas finally return from injury, but Daniel Jones is now banged up too. Even if all three play, it's not going to magically solve New York's offensive line problems — the Giants have allowed at least seven sacks in three games this season and eighteen sacks in the last two games. Even without the injured DaQuan Jones and Matt Milano, the Bills should get to the quarterback early and often.
Miami Dolphins
The Panthers gave up 42 points last week to a Lions team missing its top wideout and a key running back, allowing nearly 400 yards and 6.3 yards per play. Their reward for not being relegated after an 0-5 start is a trip to South Beach to face the most explosive offense in the league — Miami's 8.3 yards per play is two yards more than any team. If the Panthers didn't have enough to keep up with the hobbled Lions last week, they don't have near enough to keep up with the fastest team in the league — even without the injured De'Von Achane.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs had more trouble (at least for a half or so) at the Vikings last week than some expected, but that shouldn't be the case Thursday against the pitiful Broncos at Arrowhead. Denver can do little right, especially defensively. The Chiefs, meanwhile, allow just 16 points per game and still haven't given up more than the 21 points they allowed Week 1 to the Lions in their lone loss.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles went to L.A. last week and dominated the Rams in the second half. Now, they travel to N.Y. to play a Jets team that could be in for a letdown after a huge win last week against the Broncos in the Nathaniel Hackett bowl. Breece Hall isn't going to rush for nearly 200 yards as he did against Denver, and Zach Wilson is still Zach Wilson.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are riding high after beating the Bills in London. This week, they entertain the Colts, whom they beat in Indy in Week 1. Anthony Richardson is out, but Gardner Minshew is probably the top backup in the league, so Indianapolis should stay competitive before Jacksonville pulls away.
Notable Omission:
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams seem to be getting a lot of credit these days despite only two wins — really, one good half against the Seahawks and one good half against the Colts. Not that the Cardinals are better, but is there really a reason for the Rams to be seven-point favorites and have nearly 14 percent popularity in Survivor? It's not like they get a home-field advantage in Los Angeles — just ask Philly fans after last week. Yes, James Conner is on IR for the Cardinals and Cooper Kupp is back for the Rams, but still, there are far safer picks this week.
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