This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week almost saw a lot of carnage with the Saints trailing late, but after they came back, the only heavily-used team to lose was the Lions, knocking out roughly 14 percent of pools. Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | JETS | 24.90% | 400 | 80.00 |
| BENGALS | Panthers | 20.40% | 290 | 74.36 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cowboys | 20.00% | 365 | 78.49 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 10.80% | 230 | 69.70 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 9.40% | 300 | 75.00 |
| CARDINALS | Redskins | 4.70% | 170 | 62.96 |
| 49ers | RAMS | 3.40% | 170 | 62.96 |
| Packers | DOLPHINS | 1.80% | 170 | 62.96 |
| Ravens | BUCCANEERS | 1.50% | 170 | 62.96 |
| Colts | TEXANS | 0.80% | 140 | 58.33 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
There is no double-digit favorite and also no team more than 25 percent used. That means it's largely a case of taking the team with which you feel most comfortable. I wouldn't consider anything below 70 percent, though, and that includes the Titans whose turn it is to take on the league's biggest doormat.
That leaves the Broncos, Bengals, Seahawks and Chargers.
My Picks:
1. Seattle Seahawks
They're No. 2 according to Vegas, but I trust them at home, and I especially trust Russell Wilson and the offense against the Cowboys defense. The Broncos are also slightly more owned, but it's negligible in terms of pool equity. I give the Seahawks a 79 percent chance to win this game.
2. Denver Broncos
They're on the road against a desperate Jets team, but it's hard to see how the Jets move the ball
Last week almost saw a lot of carnage with the Saints trailing late, but after they came back, the only heavily-used team to lose was the Lions, knocking out roughly 14 percent of pools. Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | JETS | 24.90% | 400 | 80.00 |
| BENGALS | Panthers | 20.40% | 290 | 74.36 |
| SEAHAWKS | Cowboys | 20.00% | 365 | 78.49 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 10.80% | 230 | 69.70 |
| Chargers | RAIDERS | 9.40% | 300 | 75.00 |
| CARDINALS | Redskins | 4.70% | 170 | 62.96 |
| 49ers | RAMS | 3.40% | 170 | 62.96 |
| Packers | DOLPHINS | 1.80% | 170 | 62.96 |
| Ravens | BUCCANEERS | 1.50% | 170 | 62.96 |
| Colts | TEXANS | 0.80% | 140 | 58.33 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
There is no double-digit favorite and also no team more than 25 percent used. That means it's largely a case of taking the team with which you feel most comfortable. I wouldn't consider anything below 70 percent, though, and that includes the Titans whose turn it is to take on the league's biggest doormat.
That leaves the Broncos, Bengals, Seahawks and Chargers.
My Picks:
1. Seattle Seahawks
They're No. 2 according to Vegas, but I trust them at home, and I especially trust Russell Wilson and the offense against the Cowboys defense. The Broncos are also slightly more owned, but it's negligible in terms of pool equity. I give the Seahawks a 79 percent chance to win this game.
2. Denver Broncos
They're on the road against a desperate Jets team, but it's hard to see how the Jets move the ball consistently against them, or slow down the offense. Rex Ryan's specialty is sending the blitz, but blitzing simply does not work against Peyton Manning who reads where it's coming from pre-snap and will make them pay dearly. I give the Broncos a 79 percent chance to win this game.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
They could be without A.J. Green, and the Panthers have looked good for stretches, but I don't expect a less mobile Cam Newton to fare well against that defense in Cincinnati, and the Bengals should move the ball against a diminished version of last year's Panthers defense. I give the Bengals a 75 percent chance to win this game.
4. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have looked great so far, and they draw the Raiders, but for some reason they've struggled against Oakland in recent seasons, and this game is on the road. I give the Chargers a 73 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Tennessee Titans - I know it's tempting to use them up here, but you might be using up your season by doing so. I think the Titans might roll, but it's awfully hard to trust them even against the Jaguars.
