This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Super Bowl Betting Trends for Super Bowl 58
I have had some tremendous good fortune when betting Super Bowl games and have earned a 22-5 ATS record over the past 27 years, but that is no guarantee that I will win this year's Super Bowl Bet. I had several winning ATS bets that were gifts. For example, I was on the Patriots when Seattle Seahawks head coach Steve Carroll completely forgot he had an All-Pro running back named Marshawn Lynch and elected to throw the ball on third down and goal from the one-yard line with 25 seconds left in the contest. On that slant route, the Patriots Malcolm Butler jumped the pass route thrown by Russell Wilson and intercepted the ball to secure the Patriots Super Bowl XLIX.
The remainder of this article is meant to be a Super Bowl resource for your own handicapping efforts. The situational trends will start out simple and steadily advance to deeper dives into the Super Bowl data since 2001. At the minimum, studying these trends will allow you to greatly impress your friends and family at your Super Bowl party. Be sure to check out my Super Bowl Best Bets article coming out later this week and always remember "To bet with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours"
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25 of My Favorite Situational Trends for Super Bowl LVIII
1. Favorites are 11-11 SU and 7-15 ATS (32%) including 10-12 Over-Under.
2. Favorites that trailed by at least four points in the Conference Championship are 5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS, and 3-8 Over-Under.
3. The Super Bowl winner has gone 18-4 ATS covering the spread by an average of 10.2 points.
a. There have been 12 underdogs that have won the Super Bowl and they covered by an average 17 points.
4. Dogs that never trailed in the Conference Championship win are 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS, and 5-7 Over-Under.
5. Teams on a 5 or more-game win streak and priced as the dog are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS with a 3-3 Over-Under.
6. Teams on a 5 or more-game ATS win streak and priced as the dog has gone 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, and 0-3 Over-Under.
7. The 2007 Patriots are the only team other than this season's 49ers to reach the Super Bowl having failed to cover the spread in their two previous games. On February 3, 2008, the NY Giants led by Eli Manning defeated the Brady-led Patriots 17-14 with the Patriots priced as 12-point favorites.
8. In the Super Bowl, the team with the half-time lead has gone 14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS (61%), and an 8-10 Over-Under.
9. In the Super Bowl, Underdogs that had the halftime lead have gone 7-1 SU and 5-3 Over-Under.
10. Teams with a 6 or more-point lead at the half have gone 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS (80%) including a 7-3 Over-Under.
a. Only the Falcons, who led by 21-3 at the half and then 28-3 early in the third quarter failed to win the game losing 34-28 in overtime to the Patriots.
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11. Favorites that were tied or leading entering the fourth quarter are 7-5 SU, and 4-8 ATS, including 5-7 Over-Under.
12. Favorites that scored first (2 or more points) went just 5-5 SU, but 2-8 ATS and 5-5 Over-Under.
13. Dogs that scored first went on to a 7-5 SU record and 8-4 ATS (67%) including a 5-7 Over-Under.
14. The team that scores more points per game over the regular and playoff seasons has gone 8-13 SU, 6-15 ATS (29%) including 9-12 Over-Under.
a. 49ers rank second-most averaging 29.9 PPG.
b. Chiefs rank 15th averaging 22.05 PPG.
15. The dog with the better defensive yards-per-point ratio (better defensive metric) has gone 5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS (22%) including 5-4 Over-Under.
a. Chiefs rank 3rd best with a 17.59 yards per point ratio.
b. 49ers rank 7th best with a 16.97 defensive yards per point ratio.
16. Only one other team other than this year's Chiefs, the Steelers in the 2010 Super Bowl (February 5th, 2011) did not score in the second half of their Conference Championship win.
a. The Steelers built a 24-3 halftime lead and held on to a 24-9 win over the NY Jets priced as 4-point favorites.
17. The dog that recorded three or more sacks in their Conference Championship win went on to a 5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS (80%) record, including a 2-8 Over-Under record.
a. Chiefs had three sacks in their win over the Ravens.
18. The team that has averaged more rushing yards per attempt for the entire season has gone 6-16 SU and 8-14 ATS (36%) including 10-12 Over-Under.
a. 49ers rank 4th averaging 4.78 yards per rush.
b. Chiefs rank 12th averaging 4.27 yards per rush.
19. The team that committed more turnovers during the full season has gone 14-7 ATS (67%) and 10-11 Over-Under.
a. Chiefs have committed 30 turnovers.
b. 49ers have committed 19 turnovers.
20. Dogs that allowed 7 or fewer points in the fourth quarter of their Conference Championship win have gone 12-8 SU, 16-4 ATS (80%) including 9-11 Over-Under.
21. Favorites that outscored their Conference Championship foes by 7 or more points in the second half of that game have gone 3-8 SU & ATS and 6-5 Over-Under.
22. Favorites that made two or more field goals in the Conference Championship game have gone 7-6 SU, 3-10 ATS (23%) including 5-8 Over-Under.
23. Teams that converted more third-down situations than their Super Bowl opponent did in their respective Conference Championship games went 15-7 SU, 13-9 ATS including 10-12 Over-Under. (Favors Chiefs)
24. Dogs that did not miss a field or did not attempt a field goal in their Conference Championship game have gone 10-9 SU and 14-5 ATS (74%) including 10-9 Over-Under.
25. The Team that has outscored their opponents by a greater amount has gone 11-11 SU and 7-15 ATS (32%) | 49ers 10.47 ranks second most | Chiefs rank 5th 5.30 PPG.
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