Streaming Defenses: Week 17 Options for Fantasy Team Defenses

Week 16 was a rough one for D/ST predictions, as many of the best defenses struggled and others with top-notch matchups were even worse. In hindsight, the best strategy would've been picking out of a hat, or perhaps using a good projection system and flipping it upside down.

It's amplified when that happens during the fantasy playoffs, but really it's nothing new. Team defense scoring is generally unreliable compared to other positions, in part because defensive performance is less stable than offensive performance and in part because D/ST points largely come from low-frequency events (turnovers and return TDs).

It's been a weird year for the position in general, with league-wide offensive stats down to mid-aughts averages and an onslaught of QB injuries causing numerous huge shifts in D/ST rankings. Planning ahead has been a messy venture, and in that regard most of us at least don't have to worry anymore now that we've reached Fantasy Super Bowl week. Good luck to everyone with a championship matchup this weekend! And for those playing through Week 18, remember that Streaming Defenses will still be here next week.

Wednesday Update: I changed the rankings at 2:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday to account for a bunch of QB news and corresponding shifts in betting lines.

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 30 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 17

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. CAR)

• 42% Yahoo, 33% ESPN
• Team implied total: 22.5     Opponent implied total: 15.5

The Panthers just turned in by far their best offensive performance of the season, while the Jaguars enter Week 17 mired in a four-game losing streak. Still, Jacksonville is favored by seven points, and the Panthers have the second-smallest implied total of the week. That's partially because Carolina's Week 16 performance comes with an asterisk; the Green Bay defense Bryce Young threw for 300 yards against has been a travesty of late, allowing huge games to Tommy DeVito and Baker Mayfield as well. I actually think the spread should be less than a touchdown here, but that's mostly because of Jacksonville's injury issues on offense, whereas the Jags defense finally looks healthy after two months of issues in the secondary.

2. Chicago Bears (vs. ATL)

• 32% Yahoo, 23% ESPN
• Team implied total: 20.5      Opponent implied total: 17.5

The streak of strong fantasy performances ended this past weekend, but the Chicago defense once again played well from a real-life standpoint in holding the Cardinals to 16 points. Prior to that, the Bears scored seven or more fantasy points in five consecutive games and nine or more in four straight, led by a talented, young secondary and trade-deadline acquisition Montez Sweat (who has six sacks and 13 QB hits in seven games with the Bears). The Falcons don't want to throw the ball much, but the upside here is massive if they fall behind and have no other choice, especially given the possibility of some nasty Chicago winter weather this Sunday.

3. Seattle Seahawks (vs. PIT)

• 24% Yahoo, 19% ESPN
• Team implied total: 22.5     Opponent implied total: 19.0

While still vulnerable to the run (and passes over the middle), Seattle's defense has looked better in recent weeks, holding the Eagles to 17 points and then sacking Ryan Tannehill six times. But really, the appeal here is mostly about a matchup with QB Mason Rudolph, in addition to homefield advantage for a game that's crucial to both teams' playoff chances. Rudolph likely will foul things up in this spot, absent super(heroics) from WR George Pickens, who had more yards last week than in his previous three games combined.

4. Los Angeles Rams (at NYG)

• 20% Yahoo, 28% ESPN
• Team implied total: 24.0     Opponent implied total: 19.5

The Rams largely have relied on their offense while struggling on defense and special teams, but it should be more of an all-around effort this week against a Giants offense led by either Tommy DeVIto or Tyrod Taylor. Make sure to keep an eye on the Giants' QB choice, as DeVito has been a sack machine while Taylor has a solid long term track record of avoiding negative plays. The difference between the two is greater in fantasy D/ST terms than it is in W/L terms.

Wednesday Update: Giants moved down below Seattle after Tyrod Taylor was named the starter (line shifted from Rams -6 to Rams - 4).

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. NO)

• 35% Yahoo, 27% ESPN
• Team implied total: 22.75     Opponent implied total: 19.75

After struggling through October and November, the Tampa Bay defense has rebounded strong in recent weeks with the help of better injury luck. The Bucs came out of Sunday's win over Jacksonville with nine of 11 starters healthy, and it's possible one or both of OLB Shaquil Barrett (groin) and Carlton Davis (concussion) make it back for Week 17. The Saints, meanwhile, remain the definition of mediocre, limited by lousy coaching and (another) poor season from QB Derek Carr. The Bucs should not only win but also cover the three-point spread and come through with at least one turnover and multiple sacks.

Week 17 Rankings

1. Browns (vs. NYJ)
2. Bills (vs. NE)
3. Jaguars (vs. CAR) 
4. 49ers (at WAS)
5. Eagles (vs. ARZ)
6. Bears (vs. ATL)  
7. Broncos (vs. LAC)
8. Chiefs (vs. CIN)
9. Seahawks (vs. PIT)
10. Jets (at CLE) 
11. Rams (at NYG)
12. Buccaneers (vs. NO)
13. Texans (vs. TEN)
14. Falcons (at CHI)
15. Colts (vs. LV)
16. Cowboys (vs. DET)
17. Ravens (vs. MIA)
18. Vikings (vs. GB)
19. Packers (at MIN)
20. Steelers (at SEA)

Looking Ahead to Week 18

I'm ranking these defenses as if every team will play their starters and go all out for the win. Tight playoff races all around mean we aren't likely to see more than one or two teams resting starters Week 18. The most likely to do so, from where I'm sitting, are the Ravens and Browns. If the Ravens win this week, they lock up the No. 1 seed. If the Ravens and Browns both win, then Cleveland might also be locked into a specific seed (No. 5). 

Apart from that, we could see teams like Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee rest some key players or scale back workloads in an effort to get young guys playing time (definitely not to potentially improve draft position, because that would be scandalous). In all seriousness, teams don't really tank for better draft picks in the NFL. Occasionally we see a team kind of do it without fully committing, but usually the players and coaches have different incentives than the front office (and fans). It might be frustrating if you're a Patriots or Commanders fan, but Bill Belichick and Ron Rivera don't care.

1. Ravens (vs. PIT)
2. Cowboys (at WAS)
3. Chiefs (at LAC)
4. Buccaneers (at CAR) 
5. Eagles (at NYG)
6. Browns (at CIN)
7. Patriots (vs. NYJ)
8. Jets (at NE)
9. Jaguars (at TEN) 
10. Raiders (vs. DEN) 
11. Seahawks (at ARZ)
12. 49ers (vs. LAR)  
13. Broncos (at LV) 
14. Saints (vs. ATL)
15. Texans (at IND)
16. Bengals (vs. CLE)
17. Lions (vs. MIN)
18. Falcons (at NO)
19. Titans (vs. JAX)
20. Packers (vs. CHI)