Payne's Perspective: Super Bowl Prop Bets

Welcome to my annual article for wagering  just about everything I can find out there for the Super Bowl. A few notes before I dive into the different wagers available. 

I started this piece Saturday and fully expect different wagers to pop up as the week goes on, which is why this wasn't edited and posted then. Check out the free offers and bonuses on  individual sites (ex. Gronk kicking a field goal on FanDuel, LeBron bonus bet wager match/Super Happy Hour Boosts on DraftKings). Also, if there are any profit boosts on any wager, mathematically it makes sense to bet the coin toss (-104 each on FanDuel, +100 each on DraftKings). 

Have fun and as always, bet within your limits. Hit up the comments if there's anything you like that I didn't discuss.

Game

San Francisco 49ers Money Line -125 (DraftKings)

I really think we're going to get a great back-and-forth game. I like the 49ers' offense more while liking the Kansas City defense more. I don't usually think this, but I think the point spread (2, 2.5) could come into play, which is why I'd rather take the moneyline than lay the points at around -108. I think (with all due respect to Rashee Rice) that a 49ers win could come down to the lack of a solid No.1 wide receiver for the Chiefs, and, with two weeks to prepare, I think the 49ers figure out how to bottle up Travis Kelce. My hope is the officials don't play a role in the outcome, the players decide it and San Francisco comes out the winner. My bias a Bills fan DOES NOT come into play (yeah, right).

Anytime Touchdown Scorers

Travis Kelce +100 (FanDuel)

Kelce had a long touchdown drought before the playoffs, but now has three scores in his last two games. I don't want to go with the yardage prop; the easier call is him scoring. It's hard to think he won't get at least a couple of red-zone targets (he has nine in his last six games) and has scored a touchdown in two of the three Super Bowls he's played. If forced to pick on yardage, I'd go under on the prop (70.5 on both DraftKings or FanDuel).

Christian McCaffrey -220 (FanDuel)

While it's crazy to say this is a good value, it's as high as -450 on other sites! He's been a touchdown machine the whole season, scoring in 15 of 17 games (excluding a lightened workload Week 17 against Washington), which is 88 percent of the time. -220 works out to be an expected rate of 68 percent, so if we are using the season-long scoring percentage of 88 percent, this number is a good value. For you math lovers out there, -450 would imply he is likely to score 82 percent of the time, which doesn't make that unreasonable. And yes, the Kansas City defense is one of the best in the league, which comes into play as well when making these lines.

Justin Watson +650 (FanDuel), Jauan Jennings +650 (FanDuel), Marquez Valdes-Scantling +600 (DraftKings)

This is a big group, but you only need one to hit to make a profit. I can also see betting Jennings and either Chief for at least a 2X profit. That way you always have the opportunity to hit no matter who has the ball. I can also see parlaying MVS with an alternative receiving yardage parlayed (not available yet) with the anytime touchdown because I think it will be on a long pass if he scores.

SF 49ers D/ST +550 (DraftKings), KC Chiefs D/ST +550 (DraftKings)

You can find higher odds on other sites, but that eliminates special teams and I'd rather have them and the defenses in play for slightly less odds. It seems like both defenses could easily make plays, and with an over/under of 47.5, there should be a good amount of scoring. 

Player Props

Christian McCaffrey Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts +110 (DraftKings)

McCaffrey had 20 carries last week and before that, he hadn't surpassed this mark in any of his last six games. I find it odd there are plus odds on the under as I'd think -110 each way would be the mark. This suggests the first influx of wagers is expecting the under. I might wait to see if this goes up to 19 before kickoff. 

Brock Purdy Under 12.5 Rushing Yards +100 (DraftKings)

Taking the over seems too obvious as Purdy has 48 and 14 rushing yards in his first two playoff games. Those were against lesser defenses than the Chiefs, and over his final six regular-season games the under hit every time.

Justin Watson Over 16.5 Receiving Yards -110 (FanDuel)

If you've read this article in the past you'll know one of my greatest calls was taking the over for receiving yards for Malcolm Mitchell in Super Bowl LI. I like Watson to be that guy this year despite the fact that he has hit this over only once in his last four games. I like wagers where one reception can get you the over and unlike the Mahomes rushing prop in the Super Bowl a few years ago, I think once the over hits there's no chance it gets back to the under.

Nick Bosa To Record A Sack -111 (FanDuel)

This includes any half sack credit, so if he brings down Mahomes with a teammate, this will hit. He recorded a sack in 10 of 19 games this season, good for more than 50 percent of the time. However, he played only 43 total snaps in Week 17 and Week 18 in meaningless games and only 34 snaps Week 1. He did not have a sack in any of those. By comparison, he played a season-high 70 snaps against the Lions and finished with two sacks. 

Special Props

Brandon Aiyuk or Travis Kelce to Record 75+ Receiving Yards in the First Half +380 (FanDuel)

Once again I like taking a prop where I have a player from each team and I only need one to go off to win. Aiyuk has at least 113 receiving yards in three of his last seven games while Kelce has games of at least 71 receiving yards in his last 12 playoff games.

Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Travis Kelce to Combine for 4+ Touchdowns +550 (FanDuel)

McCaffrey has two touchdowns in each of his first two playoff games and Kelce has three over his last two. Samuel is the wild card, but is also capable of scoring multiple touchdowns in a game (he has at least two touchdowns in three of his last eight games). In those three games, McCaffrey also had four touchdowns, which means the two could hit this without the help of Kelce.

Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes to have 1+ Reception +2500 (DraftKings)

I don't know that the 49ers would try a razzle-dazzle play where Purdy was the targeted receiver, but we all know you can't put it past Kyle Shanahan. This seems like an easy way to turn $4 into $100.

Deebo Samuel and Isiah Pacheco to Each Have 25+ Rushing Yards in Each Half +9000 (FanDuel)

This is a bit of a head scratcher as it seems like Pacheco could easily do this (he did against the Ravens) and it would just be leaning on Samuel to do the same. The problem is just that, Deebo. His highest total for rushing this season is only 38 yards and using my Euclid-like math skills, that means he hasn't hit this prop all season. However, he had gone over 50 rushing yards five times the previous two seasons, so anything is possible. 90:1 odds makes worth throwing a dollar or two at.

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