Film Review: No Hope for Mariota

Kansas City vs. Buffalo

The Chiefs offense just looked bad in this one. Alex Smith was throwing a tad high, and the Buffalo front seven generally outplayed the Chiefs offensive line. There was a play where Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson tried to catch a screen pass at the same time, which I've never seen before, but neither player caught it.

Kareem Hunt did nothing special, but he also had very little room to work with and was hit in the backfield far too often. Hunt's recent struggles have been excruciating for owners who had become accustomed to his blazing fast start, but I still think the talent is well above average. The regressing run blocking and broader lethargy of the Chiefs offense is what's mainly held him back, I think, but without an obvious cause their issues might persist at Hunt's continued expense. Andy Reid can't seem to figure anything out right now, and Smith is looking a lot more like his pre-2017 self. In hindsight, Smith has only thrown especially well against Oakland, Houston, and an early-season Patriots pass defense that looked much worse than the one they have now. We might see Pat Mahomes at some point after all.

Tyrod Taylor often struggles in road games, but he was quite sharp in this one. Venue aside, the matchup was a favorable one for Taylor. Although linebacker Reggie Ragland seemed to show up quite a bit for the Chiefs, the defense was undone by poor secondary play and even a weak pass rush, which is normally its defining strength when functional. Taylor's touchdown to Zay Jones in the first quarter was an impressive throw. The rookie beat Marcus Peters on the play. Jones had a brutal opening stretch to the season, but he has seven or more targets in three straight games, and nine or more in two of his last five. He could at least be useful depth in PPR formats going forward.

If Jones can maintain momentum, it'd also hint at a sustainable passing production upgrade for Taylor, and thus LeSean McCoy from the resulting increase in scoring opportunities. McCoy has remained explosive all year despite some sluggish numbers at times, and he could be in for a stronger finish if the Buffalo passing game takes a step forward.

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland

Wouldn't you know, DeShone Kizer has looked better since the return of Corey Coleman. Facing a third and long in the first quarter, Kizer made a nice throw off his back foot and under pressure, hitting Coleman downfield for a 44-yard gain. Coleman torched Dre Kirkpatrick on a double move. The two will continue to be subjected to a tough schedule, but this offense could have surprising big-play ability upon the return of Josh Gordon.

The Browns offensive line bullied the Cincinnati interior defense a few times early on, and Isaiah Crowell ran with both explosiveness and patience. Despite Duke Johnson's superiority in the capacity, Crowell is a capable pass catcher, too. If Coleman and Gordon can jumpstart Kizer's productivity as a passer, Crowell could maintain momentum. It couldn't hurt Johnson's prospects for usage, either.

It's generally been an ugly season for Joe Mixon, but his combination of speed, anchor strength, balance, and pass-catching skills is uncommon. He seemed to have a better rhythm in this one, and if he's made a positive adjustment to the timing of the NFL game it could portend a strong finish. The blocking still isn't good, but the talent is there for sure.

A.J. Green really did have some trouble with Jason McCourty, who appears to be the real deal as an emerging top corner. It's still hilarious that Marvin Lewis scratched John Ross even one time, let alone repeatedly.

New England vs. Miami

It may be foolish to expect any particular result from a Bill Belichick backfield these days, but it seems like we may have reached an equilibrium where Dion Lewis is the primary runner, with Rex Burkhead serving as the second runner and lead pass catcher, and James White as the third back. It was Burkhead whose role was most fruitful Sunday, and while I remain leery that there may be some week-to-week fluctuation between he and White, it's hard to see why Burkhead shouldn't keep producing, especially for however long Chris Hogan (shoulder) is out. With the Bills up next, Lewis and Burkhead continue to project nicely overall.

Matt Moore wasn't good in this game, but the Patriots defense has clearly turned a corner in the last month or so. It didn't look like the Dolphins receivers were getting open much at all. It was a dreadful game for DeVante Parker in particular, as he saw just three targets, with two of them intercepted. I still believe in Parker's talent, but Miami is such a mess that it will be hard to expect anything in particular until the Gase regime is extinguished. Jarvis Landry is the only thing that can be counted on among the Miami pass catchers.

Kenyan Drake seems like a hit-or-miss sort of back, but his open-field skills and ability to catch the ball make him very intriguing in light of Damien Williams' injury. Drake is the sort of player who might total just 12 yards on ten carries before breaking a 50-yard run. With his volume assured, his chances of eventually breaking that long play go up significantly.

Philadelphia vs. Chicago

Philadelphia seems trap game-proof, as this game was an opportunity for a letdown or at least a surprisingly close contest given Chicago's low profile and adequate defense. But because they're true contenders, the Eagles did what they were supposed to do and clobbered the lesser team. Carson Wentz is locked in and should finish the season on a tear with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz serving as formidable top targets. Nelson Agholor is dangerous as the third threat, but his target volume doesn't have much room for growth as long as Jeffery and Ertz are on the field. The backfield will be a hyper-rotated committee between Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount, Corey Clement, and Kenjon Barner for the foreseeable future. Huzzah.

Jets vs. Carolina

The NFL routinely features outcomes that seem ludicrous even with the benefit of hindsight, and this was one such game. This Carolina pass defense should have been one of the worst possible matchups for the Jets, and I would still imagine that they would throw for 225 yards or less eight out of ten times. Particularly since the Jets passing game is dependent on Robby Anderson, a tall but stick-thin wideout, I thought they would stall as Anderson faced off against the formidable James Bradberry, who's almost as tall as Anderson and figured to be a problematic jam threat at 30 pounds heavier with 33 and 3/8-inch arms. But the Jets passing game dominated on the strength of Anderson's six catches for 146 yards and two touchdowns on ten targets. Anderson was shut down for most of the first half before scoring his first touchdown, a 33-yarder, on a toss up while double-teamed. It was an ill-advised throw and Anderson wasn't open, but it worked anyway. If Anderson can make in-traffic catches thanks to his wingspan, he could prove a real red-zone target despite his thin frame. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been a pleasant find for the Jets this year, but he had a brutal drop in the end zone on the Jets' first drive. They would have to settle for a field goal.

Despite the victory, the Carolina passing game was less impressive. Cam Newton was flustered by a blitz-heavy Jets defense, and Greg Olsen wasn't healthy enough to contribute and offset the losses of Kelvin Benjamin and Curtis Samuel. Devin Funchess was quite good, at least, and very nearly scored a touchdown on the drive that eventually resulted in a Newton rushing score. Funchess broke a tackle near the sideline and had no defenders in front of him, but he slipped off the tight rope and stumbled out of bounds after breaking the initial tackle attempt. He also narrowly missed an end-zone target in the second quarter. Particularly with Olsen's foot proving problematic, Funchess is locked in as a solid WR2 the rest of the way.

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee

After showing substantial promise for most of this year, particularly given the circumstances, Jacoby Brissett was a major letdown in this game. His accuracy wasn't there at all, and when he wasn't making inaccurate throws he was holding on to the ball too long. The Titans secondary and pass rush are below average, so it's hard to blame anyone but Brissett. Even good quarterbacks have bad games sometimes for no particular reason, so it's not a disqualifying indictment of Brissett, but it was a concerning missed opportunity at the very least.

Marcus Mariota also had a bad game, but I put less of the blame on him. This Tennessee offense is just garbage. Everything about it is lethargic and dull. There never seems to be any broader strategy with the route combinations, pre-snap movement is generally restricted to tight ends, and the receivers rarely generate any separation. The best passing offenses utilize a lot of pick concepts, or at least the broader intention of scheming open a particular combination of routes, but the Titans seem to design each route in isolation. There was one play where they had Harry Douglas serve as an in-line pass blocker. Why? What possible justification is there for that? The blocking wasn't particularly good in this one, either.

DeMarco Murray continued to look sluggish despite the extra rest. He reliably dwindles down the stretch over his career, and he's looking especially rusty nowadays. That Mike Mularkey can't discern Derrick Henry as the clearly superior runner is a disqualifying error. If he can't see something so obvious, why would we expect him to prove anything but a hindrance to Mariota? It's insane that this team is tied for first in its division – they look more like a 3-8 team than a 7-4 one.

Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay

With his monstrous 253-yard, two-touchdown showing, Julio Jones is now up to 10.3 yards per target on the year, and once again on the threshold of a hitting a pace of 100 or more yards per game. It would be easy enough to look at that aggregate production and say the season has been a typical one for Jones, but there were many missed opportunities and needless fluctuations to this point. Still, there were reasons to think Jones' breakout wasn't just dictated by the favorable matchup. From the start of the game the Falcons showed more of a specific intention of getting him the ball, and Matt Ryan took chances on Jones even when he wasn't open. Which is precisely what you should do with a receiver like Jones. The Mohamed Sanu touchdown pass was a fun and smart play call – the defense figures it's a run almost every time in that case with Matt Ryan split out wide, but people might have forgotten how much Sanu played wildcat quarterback at Rutgers.

Although he didn't factor into the passing game, Tevin Coleman otherwise did almost exactly what you would expect in this situation. His production required an opportunity level that only exists with Devonta Freeman out of the lineup, but at least Coleman capitalized. Freeman figures to slot back into the lead role, though.

Doug Martin may be a bust, but Peyton Barber has a career rushing average of 3.1 yards per carry when facing anyone but the 2016 49ers, and that's with most of his carries occurring in garbage time. I wouldn't chase Barber's numbers. I don't think he should be in the NFL.

Not that we would expect otherwise, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is not good. His throws were usually in the vicinity of his targets, but very rarely on the mark. It was always some combination of high or behind, leaving his receivers flailing to what usually amounted to little more than knocking down the pass so the defense couldn't intercept it. It was as if Fitzpatrick were playing dodgeball rather than throwing a pass ostensibly for catching and running. This season just needs to end for Tampa already.

San Francisco vs. Seattle

Pete Carroll talked prior to this game about how J.D. McKissic was going to get a real shot to take the lead running back role, but he was clearly committed to Eddie Lacy. Given the results, it's difficult to understand why. McKissic is clearly the best runner and pass catcher among Seattle's healthy running backs. That he's under 200 pounds is a durability concern, but the hierarchy of needs should dictate production considerations before durability ones. Still, if Seattle wouldn't commit to McKissic in this setting, there might not exist one where they would.

Russell Wilson was off in this one, throwing an ugly, borderline lazy interception on the first play. The Seattle offensive line was part of the problem, making a 49ers front void of pass-rushing talent look imposing at times. Paul Richardson had a nice game, but I still don't like him as a prospect. He's dreadfully thin and looks more like a 4.5 guy than a 4.4 one these days. Still, he seems to be ahead of Tyler Lockett at the moment, and any WR2 of Wilson's is a candidate to produce, especially when the Seattle running game is as empty as it's been this year.

I'm skeptical that he's particularly good, but Jimmy Garoppolo is an interesting name to me since he'll be facing the Texans and then the Titans starting two weeks from now. The upcoming matchup with the Bears isn't prohibitively bad, but Garoppolo really doesn't have much help among the pass catchers with Pierre Garcon out. Still, I'll probably bet on almost any Kyle Shanahan quarterback against the Texans.

Rams vs. New Orleans

Jared Goff played well in this game, hitting a number of big throws despite facing significant pressure, especially from Cam Jordan. After mostly going ignored while running downfield routes all year, in this particular game the Rams decided to investigate what would happen if they threw the ball to Sammy Watkins. They were compelled by Robert Woods' injury, perhaps, but it still marked a breakthrough when the Rams threw not just one slant to Watkins, but two – and both in the opening drive! Watkins caught both, scoring on the second. Who could have known he was capable of such things? Watkins would also draw 63 free yards on two pass interference penalties, in addition to turning nine targets into 82 yards and a touchdown.

Josh Reynolds' touchdown was mostly the result of Goff having all day to throw, but the rookie third-round pick out of Texas A&M has the perfect skill set for a red-zone target. If Robert Woods misses more time, Reynolds really is a candidate to produce. He saw six targets on 61 snaps in this one. With Watkins catching Patrick Peterson next week, Reynolds figures to be a somewhat trendy punt option at receiver, and I think for good reason.

People keep struggling to compare or otherwise describe Alvin Kamara, but he's Charlie Garner. Like Garner was, Kamara is just awesome. Mark Ingram is better than Tyrone Wheatley, but he still was arbitrarily dealt a bad box score in this one despite a good matchup.

The Rams pass rush gave the Saints offensive line some trouble, and Drew Brees otherwise dealt with a lack of separation among his pass catchers. As well as Brees has produced this year, his wide receiver personnel has been less than explosive, and it's hard to see how that can change. Michael Thomas is less of a big-play threat than Marques Colston was, Ted Ginn isn't Brandin Cooks, and Brandon Coleman is pretty much a giraffe. Brees is of course still very good, but he's not as matchup-proof as he used to be, and a shootout game script no longer makes him a lock for production against good defenses.

Oakland vs. Denver

Rather than merely bad, a handful of games this year have been downright depressing. This was one of them. Beyond the unpleasant aesthetics of the matchup, Amari Cooper suffering a concussion and sprained ankle on a vicious hit seemed a bit cruel given the pointlessness of the affair. The only good thing about the game, a skirmish between Michael Crabtree and Aqib Talib, resulted in the ejection of both, dwindling the already sparse supply of talent in the game.

Paxton Lynch is bad.

Devontae Booker's 19-yard reception in the second quarter was about a foot short of a touchdown. He was given a goal-line carry on the next play but couldn't get anywhere. He looks better than C.J. Anderson these days, and played more snaps than the incumbent for the second straight week. The question now is whether Booker can establish mainstream fantasy value with his current usage, or if he needs Anderson to completely leave the picture. The chances of the latter happening seem up in the air at best.

Somehow, without both of Crabtree and Cooper, Derek Carr held it together against Denver's typically strong pass defense. He had a dreadful start to the game, however, and time spent on the field might have contributed to Denver's eventual concessions on defense. Prior to his injury, Cooper scored an easy touchdown against backup corner Brendan Langley.

Carr had it easy because of both Paxton and Marshawn Lynch, with the former clearly posing no scoring threat while the latter did repeated heavy lifting against Denver's tough run defense. The Broncos were ready for Lynch, but he ground his way to the end zone and 100 yards from scrimmage. As has been the case all year, the only condition required for Lynch to produce is the actual opportunity.

Arizona vs. Jacksonville

Blaine Gabbert outplayed Blake Bortles in this one, but I don't think you can say Gabbert was good. He had two passes in the first half that should have been intercepted, and he fumbled twice, losing one. That Gabbert may be riding a temporary wave is something hinted not just in his own numbers but also those of Ricky Seals-Jones, who turned 11 targets into seven receptions for 126 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks. Do we expect Seals-Jones to maintain anything close to a 11.5 YPT average with a touchdown on 27.3 percent of his targets? If we don't, do we expect a boost in production from another Arizona pass catcher to offset that regression? I don't. Still, Gabbert is clearly fond of RSJ, and that he has 11 targets on his last 25 snaps shows the team is specifically trying to get him involved. After scoring his two touchdowns last week split out wide against cornerbacks, Seals-Jones' touchdown in this game was the result of catching an uncovered seam from an in-line position.

Adrian Peterson looked quite good in this one, and that the Cardinals controlled the game flow allowed them to tee off against Jacksonville's run defense more than most teams have had the chance to this year. He flopped in the first game against the Rams, but Peterson could have a good matchup this week if the Cardinals don't fall far behind.

Leonard Fournette looked less good, but the Arizona defense was consistently getting the better of the Jacksonville blocking. While it seemed that Fournette might have lacked some of his early-season wiggle as he played through a sore ankle, perhaps that was just an illusion from the optics of him getting hit so early in plays. It still seemed like a bad decision for Jacksonville to start and heavily work Fournette against the harmless Browns at clearly less than 100 percent the prior week.

Patrick Peterson was the heavy favorite over Marqise Lee going into this, and it didn't take long to realize it wasn't a contest. Lee's only reception wasn't against Peterson's coverage, and Lee otherwise saw just one target on the day after hovering around ten targets per game in the five prior weeks. That funneled more targets toward Dede Westbrook, who caught six of ten targets but only for 41 yards. Westbrook has some intriguing qualities after dominating at Oklahoma, but I would imagine Paul Richardson is among his best-case scenarios, and Russell Wilson isn't throwing that ball.

Pittsburgh vs. Green Bay

Brett Hundley's numbers look great in this one, but I still think the film looks concerning. His pocket awareness didn't look any sharper, and he remained dependent on sideline throws. Randall Cobb simply wasn't covered on the first Hundley touchdown, and you'll rarely see a corner get beat as badly as Coty Sensabaugh was on Davante Adams' long touchdown catch. Adams ran right past him off the bat, then ran circles around Sensabaugh's pursuit until the end zone mercifully relieved Sensabaugh of the chase. Hundley hit his target in each case, but Hundley has always been good at making accurate throws when obvious. He still needs to a turn a corner with his ability to anticipate between the numbers.

Jamaal Williams ran decisively and with his motor at 110 percent. I'm skeptical that he can run that hot for long, and I also worry about Hundley regressions stunting Williams' fantasy value at other points. As long as he's the clear lead back in Green Bay, though, Williams should have mainstream flex viability. Mike McCarthy desperately clings to recent bias, so Williams could hold on to the starting role regardless of what happens with Ty Montgomery's health so long as he produces. That could cut the other way too, though, so Williams' leash might not be particularly long if he struggles. I still think it's funny that McCarthy will never use Devante Mays again for fumbling once after never fumbling in 204 touches at Utah State.

Le'Veon Bell appeared a bit rejuvenated in this one, showing a better anchor ability than he has in a few weeks. He pretty much can't be stopped when he's running like that. I've been critical of him this year, but I think this was one of Ben Roethlisberger's best games. His touchdown pass to Martavis Bryant was right on the money, and he was working on an almost telepathic level with Antonio Brown. It's a bit tedious to note weekly since we're all desensitized to it at this point, but Brown is impossibly good. Bryant had a decent enough game, scoring and drawing an end zone pass interference to set up another touchdown, but he didn't help himself by dropping a slant on what would have been a first-and-goal from the five in the first quarter.