This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
There is not any team data for the 2023 NFL season yet -- for the obvious reason that no one has played a game that matters. But there are general Week 1 trends we can look at via the Historical NFL Odds tab under RotoWire's Betting Tools menu.
I am not keen on tendencies that have no explanation other than pure randomness. So let's try to come up with a semi-plausible theory to anything we might find.
Getting points on the opening weekend always feels like a good idea. It is a long way to figure out which teams we ultimately want to ride this season. Even teams that ultimately became good-to-great crawled out of the gate. The 2021 Packers got smoked 38-3 by the Saints in Week 1 and then went on to go 13-4 and capture the top seed in the NFC. The 2022 49ers made the NFC title game but lost 19-10 in a virtual monsoon in Week 1 to a Bears team that finished with the worst record in the league.
Backing home teams catching points sounds like a promising idea, but recent history does not particularly bear that out. Going back a decade, home dogs are 29-25-1 (53.7 percent) vs the number, thus not enough real edge. Road dogs show a little more promise, going 57-41-3 (58.2 percent) in Week 1 games since 2013.
Rolling with underdogs in lower-scoring games is even more appealing for the obvious reason that the fewer the points, the more likely the game stays within the spread. The average Vegas total for Week 1 games in the last decade is 46.1, so we will refine our search to Week 1 games with a home favorite and a total less than 46. Road dogs here have a sterling 34-14-3 (70.83 percent) record. Bingo!
Seven Week 1 games meet this criteria:
Buccaneers +6.5 at 
Vikings (45.5 total)
Panthers +3 at 
Falcons (42.5)
Cardinals +6 at 
Commanders (40.0)
Titans +3 at 
Saints (41.5)
Texans +9.5 at 
Ravens (44.5)
Packers +3 at 
Bears (44.5)
Raiders +4 at 
Broncos (44.5)
The total for the Bucs-Vikings sits right near the number, so we will table that one for now. The other games all look interesting. The Cardinals and Texans are possibly the worst teams in the NFL. On paper they figure to be weakest out of the gate, but they may improve as the season goes on as their respective QB situations improve. The Texans are working in a rookie, C.J. Stroud, while the Cards will almost certainly start Colt McCoy in Week 1. Betting on either of them is a bit of a gamble on some Week 1 randomness. The Texans had a terrible 2022 yet still won outright versus the eventual division champion Jaguars in Week 1. As such, catching 9.5 even against a potentially very good Ravens team sounds reasonable.
Another argument for both the Cardinals and Texans is that losing teams with rookie head coaches tend to improve the following season. Per Steve Makinen of VSiN (sub required), in the last decade, "Of the 37 rookie head coaches that inherited teams that finished under .500 the prior season, 27 of them led their teams to better records the next season, and 16 of them finished over .500 in that first year." Yes, it is a very low bar, as the already-bad teams tend to have nowhere to go but up. Still, we can expect to see better versions of perhaps these two -- and the Colts -- in 2023.
Here is another Week 1 trend that has "worked" but sounds a bit counterintuitive. Bet the under on relatively low Total games when the home team is an underdog. Unders overall in Week 1 games are 63-41-2 (60.58 percent) going back to 2003. It gets even better when the total is 46 or less. The Under there is 47-25-2 (65.27 percent).
Two Week 1 games qualify here:
Jaguars at 
Colts (Under 43.5)
49ers at 
Steelers (Under 40.5)
It sounds illogical because who wants to get more aggressive on an under when the total is lower. Perhaps home underdogs tend to try to shorten the game to keep it close and hope for a key play late? The Niners are the clear powerhouse of the four teams above, but they favor ball control and pair that with a strong defense. So do the Steelers. The total is already low and reflects all of this, but the numbers provide reason for optimism.
