NFL Draft: Combine Preview

The Combine kicks off this week, with the workouts for running backs, offensive linemen and kickers beginning Friday, March 3. The rest of the offensive prospects (QB/WR/TE) will work out Saturday.

Focusing just on QB/RB/WR/TE, this article will highlight some of the most anticipated showings, the players with the most to gain and the most to lose heading into the Combine testing, and pre-Combine positional rankings at the end. The specific focus of this article is to evaluate these players relative to their NFL fantasy football potential.

MOST ANTICIPATED

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson can only do so much to address the concerns regarding his reads after playing with a lot of fixed reads at Clemson, but at the very least the Combine will give him a chance to show off his arm and accuracy. Given the stunning success he had at Clemson – 97 total touchdowns and two National Championship appearances in two seasons – I'm expecting him to thrive in a workout setting. For whatever questions there might be about his reads, I think he lays to rest any concerns about his actual throwing ability at the Combine.

Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee

Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette are too obvious, so let's go with Kamara. The former Alabama transfer is a blur on tape and routinely shows rare balance, burst, and quickness. When you throw in his standout pass-catching skills, Kamara adds up to a major big-play threat. All he needs to do is confirm that the explosiveness he showed on tape was no illusion – a sound workout at the Combine would lock Kamara into the second round, and a strong one could even push him toward the first. He reminds me of another former Tennessee back – Charlie Garner.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford

McCaffrey's skill set is strong and diverse enough to safely lock him into the draft's first two rounds, but it will be interesting to see just what kind of athletic profile he puts forth at the Combine. He played in the 6-feet, 200-pound range at Stanford, which is a bit leaner than you'd like to see in a running back drafted as high as McCaffrey will be. I might develop some concern if McCaffrey is still 200 pounds at the Combine and fails to run a 4.50 or better in the 40. If he ends up running in the 4.55 range, you'd hope it's at at least 215 pounds.

John Ross, WR, Washington

Ross' burning speed is obvious on tape, and for years he's been rumored to possess 4.2 speed. His 40-yard dash may be the most anticipated event of the whole Combine.

Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky

Bruce Feldman reported this fall that Taylor possessed a 4.33-second 40, 137-inch broad jump, and 39.5-inch vertical. That 40 time is unlikely and the broad jump isn't happening, but even a 4.45 40, 125-inch broad jump and 38-inch vertical would be a strong showing for Taylor. I've got my fingers crossed that Feldman's source wasn't too far off, though.

O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
David Njoku, TE, Miami (FL)
Adam Shaheen, TE, Ashland
Bucky Hodges, TE, Virginia Tech

Yeah, this tight end class is every bit as good as you've been hearing. And yet, it might still be better than any of us yet realize. Each of the four tight ends previously mentioned look like freaks, and they all offer different aesthetics.

Howard (6-foot-6, 249 pounds) is the most conventional of them. He's the blue chip prototype in almost every regard – big, immensely athletic, polished all around with a three-down skill set. Njoku (6-foot-4, 245 pounds) might be the most athletically talented of the group, as he high jumped just under seven feet in high school and really stands out on tape. Shaheen (6-foot-6, 277 pounds) played at a very low level of competition, but his film was almost comical for how big and fast he looked compared to the pitiable defenders he terrorized. Hodges is probably a bit raw and could improve his consistency, but he's an obvious standout athlete at 6-foot-7, 245 pounds. I'll be keeping a close eye on Hodges given that 247Sports attributed him a 4.45-second 40-yard dash coming out of high school.

MOST TO GAIN

QB

Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech

Conventional draft media is skeptical of Evans and almost bitter toward his decision to declare for the draft after playing just one season at Virginia Tech. Evans declared because he had a brilliant 2016 season and the current draft lacks quarterback depth. He's on a high note, and he decided to go pro when the competition was thin.

Listed at 6-foot-3, 238 pounds, Evans is a big quarterback who was highly productive as a JUCO transfer for the Hokies in 2016, beating out incumbent starter Brenden Motley. Evans showed a strong arm, good downfield passing accuracy, and rare rushing skills. Brett Hundley is a safe comparison.

Playing in the same Justin Fuente system as Paxton Lynch, Evans generally proved the more productive of the two despite playing at a much higher level of competition. Evans threw for 3,552 yards (8.4 YPA), 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 14 games while running for 846 yards (4.2 YPC) and 12 touchdowns. Lynch, a 2016 first-round pick, scored 30 touchdowns in 13 games in his final season at Memphis. Evans likely isn't as good of a prospect as Lynch and almost certainly won't be drafted anywhere near as high, but Evans has a chance to use his Combine platform to make draft observers acknowledge his gifts.

In a draft that's very top-heavy at quarterback, I would guess a demonstration of upside is all Evans needs to crack the second day of the draft. An underwhelming showing could doom him to the last couple rounds, on the other hand.

(I would have written a blurb for Pat Mahomes in this section, but it appears his stock is already in the first-round range, so he's not as overlooked as I expected him to be.)

RB

James Conner, Pittsburgh

Conner (6-foot-2, 235 pounds) is well known for defeating Hodgkins lymphoma and returning to the field in 2016, when he went on to total 1,092 yards (5.1 YPC) and 16 touchdowns while catching 21 passes for 302 yards and four touchdowns.

Originally a linebacker at Pittsburgh, Conner was actually up in the 250-pound range at the start of his career. Ever since then, Conner hasn't been able to shake the reductive 'big back' label. Although Conner is bigger than most backs, I wouldn't take him for a fullback tweener. I think Conner's production is difficult to explain if his athleticism is merely that of a short-yardage runner, so I think he might surprise with his raw athleticism at the Combine.

The consensus tends to rank Conner far behind Texas running back D'Onta Foreman, but I don't think that's a settled matter at all. Pending workout results, they're in roughly the same spot for me as considerations in rounds three and four.

Elijah Hood, North Carolina

Hood (6-feet, 220 pounds) is a former top recruit who generally carried high expectations throughout his college career, yet his early declaration for the 2017 draft was largely met with criticism and indifference. The conventional narrative at this point is that he's strictly a power back with sluggish athleticism, but I think that might be wrong.

Hood's production and film carry an asterisk over the fact that he playing hurt for much of two of his three years at North Carolina, but when healthy that production and film implied that Hood is more than just a short-yardage back. Indeed, I think he showed the balance and burst of a legitimate starter like Jonathan Stewart, rather than a narrowly-skilled short-yardage specialist. With the general draft media seemingly dismissive of him, Hood has a chance to turn some heads this week.

Aaron Jones, UTEP

As a rather small back playing on a terrible team, the odds were against Jones getting a Combine invitation at all. That he did receive one gives reason to think the NFL is more intrigued by Jones than the general public, which largely still doesn't know who he is.

Listed at 5-foot-10, 215 pounds, Jones was incredibly productive at UTEP, totaling 4,114 yards (6.3 YPC) and 33 touchdowns in 35 games, adding 71 receptions for 646 yards and seven touchdowns. Despite his obscure origins, Jones' prospect profile could warrant consideration as soon as the draft's second day if he tests high enough above the average at the Combine.

WR

Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky
Shelton Gibson, WR, West Virginia
Carlos Henderson, WR, Louisiana Tech

These guys are all in the same boat for me in that they're big-play wideouts who I think are severely overlooked by the general public. Assuming their ages aren't prohibitively high – I've been unable to determine the age of any of the three – a merely adequate Combine showing would result in Day 2 prospect grades for these three.

But there's also a good chance that they will test better than adequately. Gibson's speed jumps out on tape, Henderson finished his career as one of the most lethal big-play wideouts in college football history, and Bruce Feldman once passed along word that Taylor could run in the 4.3-second range in the 40-yard dash. If the explosiveness these guys showed on tape shows up in their Combine testing, expect the 'Riser' narrative to stoke up in a hurry.

Chris Godwin, Penn State

Listed by NFL.com as 5-foot-11, 205 pounds, but it's worth mentioning that he's listed 6-foot-1 wherever else I've looked. Anyway, Godwin is a player whose film and production are of A-grade quality, yet the hype from the general public just isn't there yet. I don't know why that's the case, but I think there's a good chance it changes once Godwin has his showing at the Combine.

His athleticism doesn't really jump out on tape, but Godwin shows enough suddenness and the ability to convert anchor strength into burst to give me hope that he'll surprise with his athletic testing. Despite dealing with Christian Hackenberg for two of his three seasons at Penn State, Godwin turned 263 targets into 2,421 yards and 18 touchdowns with the Nittany Lions, and a strong Combine could push him as high as the first round in my grading.

Josh Malone, Tennessee

Malone (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) is a former top recruit who reportedly dominated Tennessee practices even as a true freshman. His career started slowly, however, and ever since then he's been unable to shake labels like 'underachiever' and 'inconsistent.' I think those labels may be ill-conceived, and a good Combine performance would force people to reevaluate their thoughts on Malone.

When Malone declared for early entry into the draft, his decision was met with takes implying that he might not even be drafted. I think that was always off, but if Malone excels at the Combine – a plausible if not probable condition given his recruiting pedigree – I think he could push for the second day of the draft. Malone is very young -- he won't even be 21 for almost another month -- yet he broke out for 972 yards and 11 touchdowns on 50 catches in 2016.

TE

Adam Shaheen, Ashland

Shaheen is an exceptionally odd prospect to scout, because he's simply far too good for the level of competition he's playing against. Shaheen looks like a Rob Gronkowski/Travis Kelce sort of athlete – someone who should have been a five-star recruit – and yet he's playing at Ashland of all places.

If Shaheen is the player he looks like on tape, he's not falling out of the second round. All he needs to do at this point is confirm that the athleticism he showed on film was not an illusion created by the substandard talent of his competition.

MOST TO LOSE

QB

Nothing especially comes to mind.

RB

D'Onta Foreman, Texas

Foreman is likely a fine prospect and one I expect to do well at the Combine, but I have to acknowledge that, if Foreman should disappoint at the Combine, it would potentially send his stock into a tailspin.

The problem for Foreman is that it would be easy for him to disappoint. Expectations are high after he showed rare burst and long speed for a 240-pound back, and at this point anything worse than a 4.50 40-yard dash might be a bit of a letdown. If he doesn't have strong workout metrics to supplement his elite production (2,028 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground in 2016), Foreman's film would otherwise invite some doubts of his prospect profile. Foreman's tape shows a player who relies more on his speed than his power, so that speed variable needs to be assured with a strong Combine showing.

Foreman has generally been regarded as a lock for the second or third round, but I think a fall into the fifth could happen if he runs a 4.55 or worse.

WR

Mike Williams, Clemson

Widely regarded as a top-10 pick (not by me), Williams heads into the Combine as the consensus No. 1 wideout in the draft. Such a projection presupposes workout metrics above the average, but Williams' film doesn't imply a standout athlete. Indeed, I don't see the meaningful distinction between Williams and a player like Juju Smith-Schuster, who's widely projected to fall as far as the third round.

I think the Combine is a setting where Williams is at risk of making their similarities more obvious. I don't see a player with much better than 4.55 speed which, while perfectly adequate, is generally the sort of athletic profile you see in a mid-to-late first-round pick, not a guy going in the top 10. Meanwhile, if Williams does better than I'm expecting, all he'll have to show for it is the status quo.

John Ross, Washington

Not only will Ross be held to a high workout standard – rumors of 4.25 speed have swirled around him for years – but Ross also has a high hurdle to clear with his medical checks. He tore both meniscuses and one ACL over his Washington career, resulting in microfracture surgery in one case, and he heads into the Combine having recently undergone shoulder surgery as well. Ross has little to gain and a great deal to lose.

K.D. Cannon, Baylor
Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma

These two are in the same situation heading into the Combine – they're both short, light receivers who are ostensibly big-play wideouts in the NFL. Cannon (6-feet, 180 pounds) and Westbrook (6-feet, 176 pounds) were both great college receivers, but their minuscule frames leave them in a situation where they'll need to significantly outperform their bigger WR counterparts in order to merely check the boxes.

Running a 4.45 at 210 pounds is very impressive. Running a 4.45 at 180 is barely good enough. Running a 4.50 at 180 might be a problem. I'm not worried about Westbrook logging a disappointing time, but I found some concern in the fact that Baylor reported a 4.46 40 for Cannon – those school-timed 40s tend to be generous, so I'm worried that Cannon might run a 4.50 or worse at the Combine. If he does, that pushes him in the third day for me.

Speedy Noil, Texas A&M

Noil is caught in something of a lose-lose as he heads to the Combine. If he does great, people will merely shrug at him doing what was fully expected. If he does poorly, everyone will rightly conclude that this immensely talented player simply hasn't applied himself. Noil is a former five-star recruit who headed into college with workout numbers similar to that of Odell Beckham, so anything less than brilliance will be framed as a disappointment for Noil, who squandered his incredible talent and proved unproductive at A&M due to character issues.

POSITIONAL PRE-COMBINE DYNASTY RANKINGS

QB

1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson (Rd. 1)
2. Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech (Rd. 1-2)
3. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame (Rd. 1)
4. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina (Rd. 1)
5. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech (Rd. 3-6)
6. Seth Russell, Baylor (Rd. 6-UDFA, I expect him to move to WR)
7. Brad Kaaya, Miami (FL) (Rd. 2-3)
8. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh (Rd. 3-4)
9. Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee (Rd. 6-UDFA, I expect him to move to WR or RB)
10. Davis Webb, California (Rd. 3-6)

RB

1. Dalvin Cook, Florida State (Rd. 1)
2. Leonard Fournette, LSU (Rd. 1)
3. Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (Rd. 2)
4. Samaje Perine, Oklahoma (Rd. 2-3)
5. Alvin Kamara, Tennessee (Rd. 2-3)
6. Kareem Hunt, Toledo (Rd. 3-4)
7. Jeremy McNichols, Boise State (Rd. 3-4)
8. Joe Mixon, Oklahoma (Rd. 4-5)
9. Elijah Hood, North Carolina (Rd. 2-4)
10. D'Onta Foreman, Texas (Rd. 3-4)
11. James Conner, Pittsburgh (Rd. 3-4)
12. Aaron Jones, UTEP (Rd. 5-7)
13. Elijah McGuire, Louisiana-Lafayette (Rd. 4-6)
14. Corey Clement, Wisconsin (Rd. 4-6)
15. Marlon Mack, South Florida (Rd. 4-6)
16. Jamaal Williams, BYU (Rd. 4-5)
17. Matt Dayes, North Carolina State (Rd. 5-6)
18. Stanley Williams, Kentucky, (Rd. 5-6)
19. Brian Hill, Wyoming (Rd. 5-7)
20. Chris Carson, Oklahoma State (Rd. 6-UDFA)
21. I'Tavius Mathers, Middle Tennessee (Rd. 6-UDFA)
22. Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State (Rd. 4-6)
23. Joe Williams, Utah (Rd. 6-UDFA)
24. T.J. Logan, North Carolina (Rd. 5-UDFA)
25. Taquan Mizzell, Virginia (Rd. 7-UDFA)

WR

1. Corey Davis, Western Michigan (Rd. 1)
2. John Ross, Washington (Rd. 1-2)
3. Juju Smith-Schuster, USC (Rd. 1-2)
4. Mike Williams, Clemson (Rd. 1)
5. Curtis Samuel, Ohio State (Rd. 1-2)
6. Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky (Rd. 2-3)
7. Carlos Henderson, Louisiana Tech (Rd. 2-3)
8. Shelton Gibson, West Virginia (Rd. 2-3)
9. Chris Godwin, Penn State (Rd. 2-3)
10. Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech (Rd. 3-4)
11. Josh Malone, Tennessee (Rd. 3-4)
12. ArDarius Stewart, Alabama (Rd. 2-3)
13. Cooper Kupp, Eastern Washington (Rd. 2-3)
14. Zay Jones, East Carolina (Rd. 2-3)
15. Travis Rudolph, Florida State (Rd. 3-4)
16. Josh Reynolds, Texas A&M (Rd. 2-4)
17. K.D. Cannon, Baylor (Rd. 3-4)
18. Malachi Dupre, LSU (Rd. 2-3)
19. Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma (Rd. 4)
20. Chad Hansen, California (Rd. 3-5)
21. Speedy Noil, Texas A&M (Rd. 4-UDFA)
22. Fred Ross, Mississippi State (Rd. 4-6)
23. Trent Taylor, Louisiana Tech (Rd. 4-6)
24. Stacy Coley, Miami (FL) (Rd. 4-6)
25. Jalen Robinette, Air Force (Rd. 4-6)
26. Artavis Scott, Clemson (Rd. 4-5)
27. Amba Etta-Tawo, Syracuse (Rd. 5-7)
28. Ishmael Zamora, Baylor (Rd. 4-UDFA)
29. Ryan Switzer, North Carolina (Rd. 4-5)
30. Keon Hatcher, Arkansas (Rd. 5-UDFA)

TE

1. O.J. Howard, Alabama (Rd. 1)
2. David Njoku, Miami (FL) (Rd. 1)
3. Adam Shaheen, Ashland (Rd. 2)
4. Evan Engram, Mississippi (Rd. 2)
5. Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech (Rd. 2-3)
6. Jake Butt, Michigan (Rd. 3-4)
7. Gerald Everett, South Alabama (Rd. 3-4)
8. Jordan Leggett, Clemson (Rd. 3-4)
9. Cole Hikutini, Louisville (Rd. 4-6)
10. Jonnu Smith, Florida International (Rd. 4-6)
11. Michael Roberts, Toledo (Rd. 3-5)
12. Billy Brown, Shepherd (Rd. 4-6)
13. George Kittle, Iowa (Rd. 5-6)
14. Jeremy Sprinkle, Arkansas (Rd. 5-UDFA)
15. Darrell Daniels, Washington (Rd. 6-UDFA)