This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Conference Championship Best Bets and Live Betting Strategies
Three games remain in the NFL 2023-24 season. Two of them occur on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes storm into Baltimore to take on the Baltimore Ravens and their All-Pro quarterback Lamar Jackson who will decide the AFC Conference Champion. That game is set to start at 3:00 EST and finds the Ravens favored by 4 points and with a posted total of 44.5 points. The second game will determine the NFC Conference Champion and features the upstart Detroit Lions led by Jared Goff squaring off with the host San Francisco 49ers at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, California, and scheduled to start at 6:30 PM EST. The 49ers are priced as 7-point home favorites with a posted total of 51.5 points.
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NFL Conference Championship Betting History
The winner of these two conference Championship games will meet in two weeks at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada for Super Bowl LVIII set to start at 6:30 PM Sunday, February 11 and will be televised by CBS.
The following list of situational angles is my starting point to handicap these games and ultimately identify any potential betting opportunities. They are listed in no order of importance.
- Home teams that had the BYE to start the playoffs are 27-13 SU (68%), 21-19 ATS (63%), and 23-16-1 O-U (59%) since 2002.
- Home favorites that earned the BYE are 25-10 SU (72%), 19-16 ATS (54%), and 20-14-1 O-U (59%) since 2002
- Home teams that win the NFC Championship earned a 10-4 ATS (71.4% record and 10-3-1 O-U (77%)
- Home teams that win the AFC Championship earned a 13-3 ATS (81%) record and 8-8 O-U (50%)
- If the total in these games is between 42.5 and 49 points, the home favorite has gone 11-1 SU (92%), 8-4 ATS (67%), and 6-6 O-U (50%) | Supports betting on Ravens
- Teams, like the Chiefs, that trailed at the half in their divisional round win are 3-6 SU, 6-3 ATS (67%), and 6-3 O-U (67%)
- Teams that had won more regular season games are 23-12 (66%), 17-18 ATS (49%), and 18-16-1 O-U (53%) | Ravens
- Teams that have won more games including the playoffs are 0-3 SU and ATS and 2-1 O-U | Detroit 14 wins | 49ers 13 wins | Supports betting on 49ers
- Favorites of 3.5 or more points that failed to cover the spread in their divisional round win are 5-1 SU (83%), 4-2 ATS (67%), and 0-5-1 Under | Supports betting on 49ers
- The team that has the lower (more efficient) Yards-Per-Point ratio and averaged 7.8 or more yards per pass attempt has earned a 12-3 SU record (75%), 8-7 ATS (53%), and 10-5 O-U (67%) since 2002. Supports betting on the 49ers.
- The home team that has the higher (better) defensive Yards-Per-Point allowed and has a defense that has allowed 6.5 or fewer yards-per-pass attempt has earned a 22-8 SU (73%),
18-12 ATS (60%), and 18-12 O-U (60%) | 49ers Ravens - If that home team allowed fewer than 6 yards-per-pass attempt has seen them go 16-4 SU (80%), 13-7 ATS (65%) and 13-7 (O-U) | 49ers Ravens
- When the Favorite has averaged 3 or more rushing attempts per game than the foe the Over has gone 10-2 for 83% winning bets in the Conference Championship.
A Situational Betting Algorithm in the NFC Conference Championship Game
- The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 14-2 straight-up (SU) record and an 11-5 against-the-spread (ATS) record for 67% winning tickets. The requirements are:
- In the Playoff Rounds
- Teams that won 6 or more games, but were outgained in the stats (smoke and mirrors)
- That team is a road dog.
Now, if our team is playing in the Conference Championship Game they have gone
0-5 SU | 0-5 ATS | 3-2 O-U and is a solid betting opportunity on the 49ers.
So, fading these road underdogs has produced exceptional results.
NFL Live Betting Strategies for Conference Championship Games
The most important requirement for a solid LIVE betting strategy is to have the plan in place before the game starts. My plan for betting the 49ers will be to bet 50% of my amount on the 49ers preflop and then look to get 25% more on the 49ers at -4.5 points and 25% more at -1.5 during the first half of action. I do not bet after the half simply because time is working against you. If you bet in the fourth quarter, you must be right almost immediately for the best to cash. It is like options trading in the financial markets as time decay increases as the trade approaches the expiration date of the options.
In the AFC Championship Game, I plan to not bet the Ravens preflop or before the kickoff. My plan is to bet the Ravens at pick-em during the first half of action. Since 2018, the Chiefs have played in five AFC Championship games and have gone 3-2 SU, ATS, and Over. They have averaged 30.2 PPG and allowed 26.4 PPG. The road to scoring 30.2 points per game has started with an anemic first quarter in which they averaged just 3.4 PPG. They turned up the offensive engines in the second quarter scoring 11.8 PPG. Generally, the third quarter sees both teams in a Championship game score fewer points mainly because of the defensive adjustments that are made at the half. The Chiefs have scored 4.8 PPG in the third quarter and then the fourth was much like the second quarter in which they scored 10.2 PPG.
In the 16 playoff games that the Chiefs have played since 2018, they have gone 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS with an even 8-8 Over-Under record. All 16 of those games were played at home at Arrowhead Stadium or a neutral site for the Super Bowls. The same pattern has existed in the Chiefs quarterly with the first and third seeing an average of 4.9 and 5.4 respectively and the second and the fourth quarters seeing an average of 11.2 and 9.2 points respectively.
Since 2018, the Chiefs have experienced 50 lead changes in their 16 playoff games and the most lead changes of any NFL franchise. Second-most led changes goes to the Buffalo Bills with 32 spread out over 10 games. So, on average there have been three lead changes in the Chiefs playoff games since 2018.
In the Chiefs' 16 playoff games, there have been seven of those games in which they and the opponent both enjoyed 6 or greater point leads. These seven games lead the NFL in this category by more than double.
I do see multiple lead changes in the game leading to an increase in scoring volatility on the scoreboard. So, it is reasonable to think that at some point during the first half, the Chiefs will have a three or more-point lead which will cause the LIVE betting line to approach or reach pick-em.
