This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Betting Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football, Detroit Lions at Houston Texans
Two contenders from opposite conferences face off in this primetime matchup, a possible Super Bowl preview despite some of the Texans' recent struggles.
We may not know the available wide receivers for C.J. Stroud until shortly before kickoff, adding a level of difficulty to prognosticating this battle. Nevertheless, let's break down our best bets for the Sunday night showdown.
Detroit Lions at Houston Texans Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Lions -190 (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Texans +170 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Lions -3.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Texans +3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 49.0 points (Caesars Sportsbook)/ Over 48.5 points (-112 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread has seen a fairly significant swing over the last few days. The Texans have consistently sat as the underdog, going from +3.5 in the aftermath of Week 9 action to +4.5 shortly thereafter before a decline all the way back down to +3 and then a slight bump back to 3.5. The tenuous availability of both Nico Collins (IR, hamstring) and Tank Dell (chest) playing a part in the uncertainty, and an eventual confirmation of one or both players suiting up could lead to late movement.
The total has also fluctuated, but has essentially returned back to its original price. It bumped up to as high as 50.5 at midweek, but it eventually worked its way back down to 48.5. Once again, the uncertainty surrounding the Texans' top two receivers certainly plays a part.
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Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans Betting Picks
The Lions keep showing the nimbleness often required of championship-level squads. Detroit has proven capable of prevailing in a number of ways on the path to a 7-1 record. They have scored over 40 points on three occasions, including one 50+ total, and surrendered 14 points or fewer on four occasions. Additionally, Jared Goff has put the ball up as much as 55 times and as little as 15, a testament to play caller Ben Johnson and Detroit's extremely impressive depth at the skill positions.
The Lions' prefer to attack is via their two-headed ground pairing of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit averages 159.8 rushing yards per road game (152.6 RYPG overall). The opposing Texans, meanwhile, have shown more vulnerability against the run at home, where they've conceded 135.5 rushing yards per contest. That could set up another busy night for the pair of talented backs, especially if the Lions facie an offense that is missing at least one of Collins or Dell, and even more so if both are sidelined.
However, Goff and his talented group of pass catchers, which includes the returning Jameson Williams, also set up well on paper. The Texans have had trouble slowing down impact plays through the air, tying with the Jaguars for second-most TD passes allowed (19). Houston has also yielded the second-most touchdown receptions to wide receivers (14). So Amon-Ra St. Brown, who already has six touchdown grabs this season and 11 red-zone targets overall, is a player I'm targeting as part of a same-game parlay that also includes a Lions moneyline bet.
However, my main bet actually centers on the Under. At least one of Collins or Dell likely sits out this game, and the former looks like the prime candidate given he's only had one practice since having his 21-day window open . Stroud has struggled plenty without Collins and more recently sans Stefon Diggs (IR, knee) as well, throwing for under 200 yards in three of the last four contests.
Best Bets
- Under 49 points (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- SGP: Lions moneyline and Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD scorer (+198 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Detroit Lions at Houston Texans Prediction
Lions 24, Texans 21
The Lions brim with confidence and enter healthy, even getting Williams back from suspension. The Texans can't really claim the same, especially when it comes to its banged-up WR corps. Head coach DeMeco Ryans and his staff have been excellent at getting the team ready to play regardless of circumstances, but I can see the healthier Lions pulling out the close win thanks to their fuller roster.
