Job Battles: Ware Do We Go From Here?

Running Backs

Damien Williams vs. Spencer Ware (shoulder/hamstring), KC

Ware is the incumbent in this battle with not only a lead on the depth chart all year before missing last week, but also with a three-year head start in Kansas City generally. But it's anyone's guess how quickly Ware can bounce back from his injuries, and Williams played so well against the Chargers on Thursday that the Chiefs presumably aren't in any rush to get Ware back on the field before he's ready.

Even upon clearance for Ware's return, it's possible that Williams' strong play would dictate a split of some sort between the two rather than the workhorse arrangement Ware stepped into following the release of Kareem Hunt. Even at over 220 pounds, Williams theoretically offers a bit more lightning than the thunder Ware runs with at close to 230 pounds, and Williams possesses mid-4.4 speed in contrast to Ware's 4.6 speed. I would guess Ware is the more skilled player overall, and both players are plus pass catchers, but Williams really does offer something a bit different and the Chiefs might want to explore expanded usage for Williams, at least in hurry-up sort of scenarios, after posting 49 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries and six catches for 74 yards on six targets against the Chargers.

James Conner (ankle) vs. Jaylen Samuels, PIT

Conner seems like a good bet to return to the field in Week 16 after logging a limited practice Friday, and when he returns he will immediately retake the starting role in the Pittsburgh backfield. The question is whether Samuels played well enough in the last two weeks to earn a bigger role than the one he had prior to Conner's injury.

Samuels' two weeks as starter were uneven for sure, as Sunday's breakout rushing performance was preceded by one where he totaled just 28 yards on 11 carries against the Raiders of all teams. As he ran for 142 yards on 19 carries against the Patriots on Sunday, Samuels showed strong vision and running skills generally, but he also very obviously benefited from a combination of excellent run blocking and a Patriots game plan that dared the Steelers to beat them with Samuels. It didn't work out for the Patriots, needless to say. Despite the encouraging showing, Samuels still didn't seem fully confident in his reads, and at multiple points it looked like he almost doubted himself, as if he worried that the openings in front of him might have been too good to be true. Samuels will improve at that with more experience, but in the meantime Conner is a player more prepared to produce on the ground.

With that said, Samuels is already a menace as a receiver, and Pittsburgh might look to give him some of that usage specifically at Conner's expense. Conner turned himself into a good receiver this year, but Samuels was pretty much born one. For the year he's caught 16 of his 18 targets for 148 yards and two touchdowns – basically automatic production. There are very few players who can boast natural pass-catching talent on Samuels' level.

To be clear, Conner's owners should absolutely lock him back into their lineups this week if he's back in the lineup. Because Samuels is a polished route runner out wide there's a possibility that any increase in Samuels' usage might be subsidized by slashing the snaps/routes of players like James Washington and Ryan Switzer before it becomes Conner's problem.

Kenyan Drake vs. Kalen Ballage, MIA

I have no idea where this one is headed. The only time a coach's usage of his backfield seemed more arbitrary and insane to me than the 2018 Dolphins would be in reference to Green Bay's handling of Aaron Jones this year. What we know for sure is that Frank Gore (foot) is out for the rest of the season, and the Dolphins will need to turn to Drake and Ballage in some combination for the final two weeks.

Ballage is the more novel item of the two because he not only played ahead of Drake against Minnesota on Sunday, but he ran for a 75-yard touchdown that highlighted the rare speed he possesses for a runner listed at 237 pounds (at 228 pounds he ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at the combine). Ballage finished that game with 123 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, while Drake concluded with just a six-yard carry and three catches for 28 yards on three targets. Drake played 28 snaps, Ballage played 26.

As I mentioned previously, there is no basis for which Gase makes any of his personnel decisions. None. It's whim and nothing more, and you can't quantify or anticipate whim. So although I would say Drake is the very obviously better player between the two, Gase either rejects the premise or isn't curious enough to investigate the matter in the first place. It may be immaterial to him, I don't know.

But you should know that Ballage is more theory than practice as a prospect, more potential than results. In his carries this year aside from the 75-yard touchdown, Ballage has just 59 yards on 19 attempts. Going into his sophomore year at Arizona State, the coaches tried to split his time at defensive end. That's enough of a red flag for me, but then consider the fact that Ballage was never the best running back on his own team. That distinction would go to DeMario Richard, who I'm assuming you've never had reason to hear of. Richard finished his Arizona State career with 3,202 yards (4.9 YPC) rushing and 662 yards receiving in four years. Ballage's four years yielded 1,984 yards (4.4 YPC) and 27 touchdowns rushing, with 82 receptions for 684 yards.

I already said this once on Twitter, but Ballage is basically if you took Derrick Henry, gave him worse size-adjusted speed, and then made him a mediocre Pac-12 back instead of the best player in the SEC. Ballage's disappointing production was not for lack of opportunity. Ballage was a blue chip recruit at Arizona State, but he was overshadowed by Richard and D.J. Foster anyway. Aside from a 10-game stretch in 2015 where he ran for 653 yards and four touchdowns at 5.2 yards per carry, Ballage otherwise averaged 4.1 yards per carry in his other 36 games. Brutal.

For those still alive in the fantasy playoffs or consolation brackets, though, Ballage is still a player who probably needs to be picked up, just in case Gase decides to feed him against Jacksonville. I just would caution people to presume a low floor, both because I bet Ballage fizzles out in the longer term, and because the whims of Gase could just as easily work against him with no notice whatsoever.

Derrick Henry vs. Dion Lewis, TEN

Well, this one appears to be a wrap. There might be some fluctuation yet according to matchup-specific game plans, and certainly if the Titans fall into a trailing game script, but the RB1 role in Tennessee is Henry's.

It of course took run-heavy game scripts for this to happen, but Henry has 408 yards rushing and six touchdowns against the Jaguars and Giants over the last two weeks. He's improbably up to 882 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground (5.0 YPC), while Lewis has somehow been left far behind at 512 yards and one touchdown (3.4 YPC). The good news for Lewis is that despite Henry's two-week rampage, Lewis has 17 carries and eight catches in those games, which constitute close to the worst-case scenario for him. Washington's offense probably can't force Tennessee to abandon the Henry offense in favor of the Lewis one, but Week 17 against Indianapolis should be a situation where Lewis is called upon for more.

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton vs. DaeSean Hamilton vs. Tim Patrick, DEN

While it's not working out great for Case Keenum, this trio is an interesting collection of wideout prospects who make a compelling case study in how prospects of varying pedigree, skill sets, builds, and origins apply to NFL football when unexpectedly thrust into three-down roles.

Patrick has the least pedigree of the three as a second-year undrafted player out of Utah. He's primarily an outside receiver, same as Sutton, and their builds are about the same too. But Sutton is one of the most prized prospects league-wide, a player who slipped into the second round but could easily have gone in the first. Despite that, it's been Patrick who's served Keenum better the last two weeks, as Patrick turned 18 targets into 12 receptions for 150 yards while Sutton turned 12 targets into seven catches for 56 yards. This looks like a case where the advanced age of one player (Patrick, 25) simply dictates greater short-term polish than the other (Sutton, 23), even if no one mistakes the present leader as the better player generally.

Hamilton is in any case in something of his own world since he primarily plays in the slot, which is generally Keenum's favorite place to throw to. As the plug-in replacement for the injured Emmanuel Sanders, it was widely figured that Hamilton might be busy off the bat. Sure enough, Hamilton's two starts resulted in 21 targets, of which he's caught 14 for 93 yards and a touchdown. The per-target yardage is brutal, and clearly Hamilton's usage right now is not a symptom of a functional offense, but the targets should stay flowing.

It basically appears that we have two high-floor guys with limited ceilings in Patrick and Hamilton, while Sutton is a high-ceiling guy whose consistency might lack in the short term. Any or all of the three could do something useful against the Raiders defense this week, but I think for now you have to consider Hamilton and Patrick a bit safer than Sutton, especially in PPR scoring.

Equanimeous St. Brown vs. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB

The head injury and potential concussion suffered by Randall Cobb on Sunday might make this competition moot if Cobb misses time, but so long as Cobb is on the field it appears that MVS will get pinched out of the wideout rotation due to his frequent placement in the slot, where Cobb plays almost exclusively.

The Packers might not even necessarily consider St. Brown the better player between himself and MVS, but if Cobb is out there they evidently prefer St. Brown outside over MVS outside. MVS finished the Bears game with just 21 snaps – the same number as Jake Kumerow. St. Brown, meanwhile, finished with 42, outpacing MVS' snap count for the second week in a row. With the Jets and Lions up next Aaron Rodgers figures the finish the season on some sort of positive note, so whoever holds the distinction as his second outside receiver could prove useful in fantasy.