Job Battles: Trent Taylor Time

After addressing the Detroit RBs, Washington RBs, and Philadelphia WRs, this article will break down the Indianapolis RBs, and then the RBs and WRs both for San Francisco. Click here to read the previous article.

Indianapolis Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor
Marlon Mack
Nyheim Hines
Jordan Wilkins

Darius and Bruce Anderson are on the roster too, but we can expect them to get cut if the four named above remain healthy before the season's start.

Taylor, Mack, and Hines are roster locks. Wilkins is a third-year former fifth-round pick who's shown valuable elusiveness off the bench (643 yards on 111 carries, 5.8 YPC), so the Colts could decide to keep him too, especially if Taylor or Mack miss any training camp reps due to injury.

With all that noted, the main story with this backfield is of course the arrival of Taylor, the second-round pick out of Wisconsin. Mack had been the team's workhorse runner the prior two years, amassing 442 carries for 1,999 yards (4.5 YPC) and 17 touchdowns on 960 snaps, but there's reason to believe that Mack is merely a replacement-level talent rather than a truly standout running back. The main reason is that the Colts offensive line is one of the best in the league, and Mack's otherwise decent numbers don't do as much lifting as they would on a team with a worse rushing baseline. The superior rushing efficiency of Wilkins and 2019 back Jonathan Williams gives further reason to suspect that Mack's talent is replaceable.

If Mack is dispensable, then Taylor is the last player he wants to compete against. Rather than a mid-range runner, Taylor projects as a top-five pure runner in the NFL, right off the bat. Taylor ran for 6,174 yards and 50 touchdowns in 41 games at Wisconsin, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. At 5-11, 226 pounds, Taylor ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the combine. Playing at a lower level of competition at South Florida, Mack ran for 3,609 yards and 32 touchdowns in 36 games (6.2 YPC). At 5-11, 213 pounds, Mack ran a 4.50-second 40. The production illustrates the skill disparity of the two players, and the athletic metrics illustrate the raw athletic talent disparity. Even if Mack is decent, the disparity in both cases is jarring. There's no shame in that – as previously mentioned, very few players have a prayer of projecting as well as Taylor does as a pure runner.

With an ADP at 32.4 overall in NFFC drafts since June 26, the price to acquire Taylor is perilously steep. It's easier to rationalize this cost if you're chasing upside, because Taylor is a fine candidate to run for 2,000 yards in a single season before his NFL career is over. The risk at this price can't be ignored, however, because it might take as little as a Week 1 fumble to set Taylor back a few weeks in his quest to claim the backfield. At a third-round price tag he needs to do that no later than Week 4 or so, and even a wait that long could make it difficult for a team to make the fantasy playoffs. Of course, there's a good chance Taylor owns this backfield going into Week 1, in which case he would likely return a first-round value for those bold enough to select him. Just understand that none of these scenarios are assured – there is a wide rage of outcomes possible.

If Taylor fails to overtake Mack as a pure runner in the Colts offense – a role that frequently saw Mack meet or exceed the 20-carry mark in games over the last two years – then it would almost certainly be related to ball security. Taylor fumbled a ton at Wisconsin, once every 53.8 touches from scrimmage. He'll avoid some of those in the NFL simply because he won't break so many tackles, thus avoiding the college scenarios where three or four guys are punching at the ball in a single play, but there's no doubt that Taylor needs to fix that to stay on the field.

If Mack is displaced from the running game by Taylor then he might compete for more reps in passing situations, which would necessarily be at the expense of Hines. Mack hasn't been an effective receiver in the NFL, though, so he's at real risk of total obsolescence if he loses to Taylor in the ground game. Mack's targets per snap rate has dropped in each of his three NFL seasons, his career 76 targets yielding just 52 receptions for 410 yards (68.4 percent catch rate, 5.4 YPT).

If Hines can hold off Mack and whatever other challengers for the passing snaps then he could have a busy 2020 season, especially if new quarterback Philip Rivers throws to the running back position as often as he did with the Chargers in recent seasons. Hines can't run out of the backfield (3.7 YPC over 137 attempts) and pass-catching returns have been modest to this point, totaling 107 of 139 targets for 745 yards (77.0 percent catch rate, 5.4 YPT), but he's still young (24 in November) and definitely has the jets to run away from a defense (4.38-second 40). Even with Taylor in the fold, we probably should expect Hines to play upwards of 350 snaps this year.

San Francisco Running Backs

Raheem Mostert
Tevin Coleman
Jerick McKinnon
JaMycal Hasty
Jeff Wilson
Salvon Ahmed

Mostert was utterly convincing in the stretch run last year, generating 715 yards and 11 touchdowns on 117 carries in his last eight games, good for 6.1 yards per carry. Formerly unknown special teams ace or not, that kind of production will grandfather you into the starting lineup when the calendar changes. The question we have to figure out is whether he has room for growth, and whether his chances of regression are properly accounted for in the ADP.

Mostert (5-10, 205) is a legitimate burner, logging a 4.38-second 40 out of Purdue, where he played as much receiver as running back. Mostert's skill set as a pass catcher is a little unclear all the same, to this point catching 69 percent of his targets at 7.1 yards per target over 29 career targets, but there's a chance that he's more capable as a pass catcher than many suspect. With an ADP of 48.77 in the past week, 25th among running backs, it seems that fantasy drafters are understandably concerned about regression as a runner, and with minimal expectation of pass-catching growth to offset it.

If you're skeptical of Mostert but still expect the 49ers to run well in 2020, then you might want to consider buying Coleman at around the much cheaper ADP of 112.57. Coleman's results tend to fluctuate quite a bit from carry to carry and week to week, but despite his consistency issues there are few running backs more capable of scoring on any given touch. Coleman and Kyle Shanahan know each other well, and Shanahan trusts him. If Mostert falters, Coleman is likely to get the first chance at replacing him, and Coleman will likely play regularly off the bench anyway since Mostert is expected to cap around 200 carries.

McKinnon is the biggest wildcard of the group, because he was supposed to be the 49ers' top running back all this time over the past two years. His cruel injury luck has his career in question at this point, however, and there's simply nothing to guarantee as far as the health of his knee. If McKinnon can get back on the field and look like his former self, though, then perhaps he will yet secure the destiny that was presumed two years ago.

If McKinnon can't regain his pre-injury form, then the trio of Hasty, Ahmed, and Wilson will get to fight over the remaining opportunity. Wilson has NFL experience and was a good player at North Texas, but at 6-foot, 208 pounds he is by far the least athletic 49ers running back (4.57-second 40, 11.49 agility score). Wilson is a classic case of a skilled player who lacks athletic talent, meaning he offers floor but not much in the way of ceiling. With just 371 yards on 93 carries to this point (4.0 YPC), the 49ers can probably do better.

Hasty (Baylor) and Ahmed (Washington) are both undrafted rookies, but both are probably superior prospects to Wilson. Hasty (5-8, 205) is novel among the 49ers running backs because of his density and explosiveness. With a 39-inch vertical, 123-inch broad jump, and 4.03-second 20-yard shuttle, Hasty offers a lot of pop at a low build. Ahmed (5-11, 197) was a solid runner at Washington but one who never amassed much volume, playing behind workhorse Myles Gaskin before last year. Gaskin looked less than convincing for the Dolphins last year, so it's concerning that Gaskin never displaced him more. It's also concerning that Ahmed tanked at the combine, running a 4.62 40. It seems like Ahmed must have just had poor training or form – he was credited with a 40 in the 4.3 range in Washington's offseason training, and on tape he obviously looks more like a 4.4 guy. It's probably worth noting that Hasty ($15,000) received a slightly bigger signing bonus than Ahmed ($10,000). 

San Francisco Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel (foot)
Brandon Aiyuk
Trent Taylor
Kendrick Bourne
Jalen Hurd
Travis Benjamin
Jauan Jennings
Dante Pettis

There may be more early-season reps available here than previously imagined, because it's impossible to know for sure how Samuel's foot will respond in its recovery to the Jones Fracture he suffered June 18, which is expected to carry a 10-to-12 week prognosis. The 10-week mark from then would be August 27, and the 12-week mark Sept. 10. San Francisco's Week 1 opponent is Arizona, scheduled for Sept. 13. If Samuel can trend toward the lower end of that prognosis then he should be ready for upwards of 30 or 40 snaps by Week 1, and within a month of that point he should push for 60 snaps or so per game. If we trends toward the later range of his prognosis then he might miss Week 1 entirely and then take upwards of a month to get into competitive form. Particularly given his presumed WR1 function, a lot is at stake with Samuel's recovery.

If Samuel misses any time it would primarily open up snaps outside, where Aiyuk, Bourne, and Hurd are the top candidates to pick up the slack. Aiyuk is the first-round rookie out of Arizona State, and he's something of a speed specialist in this group. Bourne was the team's primary slot wideout last year and is a bit slow, but he's a favorite of Shanahan's and projects to swing between the outside and slot as needed. Hurd spent last year on the IR as a third-round pick out of Baylor, but the former star Tennessee running back is probably the one of these three who is most capable of running like Samuel does after the catch. YAC was the main driver of Samuel's success last year – his average of 8.5 yards after the catch per catch is all but impossibly to imitate, but Hurd's tackle-breaking ability clearly stands above that of Aiyuk or Bourne.

That's not to say one of Aiyuk, Bourne, or Hurd necessarily are the best candidates to take up the actual targets that might vacate in the event that Samuel is absent. They're the best candidates to take his snaps, but it might be Taylor who's the best candidate to claim Samuel's actual targets. Taylor was expected to serve as San Francisco's lead slot receiver last year before his season was ended by a broken foot, and if healthy he's expected to usurp Bourne as San Francisco's primary slot receiver in 2020. Although Taylor's lack of size (5-8, 180) truly restricts him to the slot, his lack of versatility is somewhat offset by how extremely well-suited he is to his one specialty. Taylor was impressive as a rookie fifth-round pick in 2017, catching 43 of 60 targets for 430 yards and two touchdowns on 493 snaps, which was production above the team's base line. The 49ers completed 59.6 percent of their passes at 7.0 yards per attempt that year, but Taylor caught 71.7 percent of his targets at 7.2 yards per target. Taylor was utterly dominant at Louisiana Tech in college, too, generating 136 receptions for 1,803 yards and 12 touchdowns on 176 targets his senior year (77.3 percent catch rate, 10.2 YPT).

Benjamin's days of relevance may be gone after turning 30 in December, as the former standout speedster and return specialist has become more so known for his drops and durability struggles. If his jets are still in tact then we might think of Benjamin as injury/preparedness insurance behind Aiyuk, who's otherwise expected to serve as the main field-stretching threat in this group. On a one-year, $1.05 million deal with no guaranteed money, Benjamin is not expected to make the roster.

Jennings was selected in the seventh round of the 2020 draft, and at 6-3, 215 he's a bully perhaps in the mold of how the 49ers intend to use Samuel and Hurd. Jennings' ability to break tackles could prove useful in the Shanahan scheme despite registering brutal workout numbers (4.72 40, 29-inch vertical, 119-inch broad jump).

Pettis is supposed to be as talented as any wide receiver on the 49ers, but he and Shanahan appear to be alienated from each other. After a promising rookie season as a second-round pick, Shanahan criticized Pettis constantly through both anonymous and on-the-record complaints, and Pettis stayed in the dog house all year afterward. If he isn't traded then he might get cut, because as much as it's hard to tell what went wrong here, it's equally difficult to tell why it would suddenly resolve itself.