This article is part of our Job Battles series.
The blurbs sort by descending alphabetical order of the team location. The players within a blurb are listed from left to right in descending seniority, not favor.
Rex Burkhead vs. Sony Michel, New England
We know Burkhead has earned some substantial role in this backfield, and we can probably assume that James White will go relatively unchallenged in his specialist role as an in-space pass-catching back. What's less obvious is what will be done with the more traditional running back tasks that were left last year to Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Mike Gillislee. This blurb takes the liberty of presuming Gillislee and Jeremy Hill will not factor into that equation to any notable extent.
So if we imagine Burkhead vs. Michel, will it look the same as Burkhead vs. Lewis? Lewis had established himself as the team's lead runner in the second half of last year, but it took rib and knee injuries to Burkhead to precipitate that outcome. Lewis and Burkhead may have been thought of as equals despite the uneven box scores between the two at year's end.
Burkhead was excellent as a pass catcher, turning 36 targets into 254 yards and three scores on 30 receptions, but his lack of speed limits his upside as a runner, where he has just two career carries of more than 20 yards on 151 attempts. I think Michel could prove a substantial threat to Burkhead's rushing upside, because Michel is just better at it. He's better than
The blurbs sort by descending alphabetical order of the team location. The players within a blurb are listed from left to right in descending seniority, not favor.
Rex Burkhead vs. Sony Michel, New England
We know Burkhead has earned some substantial role in this backfield, and we can probably assume that James White will go relatively unchallenged in his specialist role as an in-space pass-catching back. What's less obvious is what will be done with the more traditional running back tasks that were left last year to Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Mike Gillislee. This blurb takes the liberty of presuming Gillislee and Jeremy Hill will not factor into that equation to any notable extent.
So if we imagine Burkhead vs. Michel, will it look the same as Burkhead vs. Lewis? Lewis had established himself as the team's lead runner in the second half of last year, but it took rib and knee injuries to Burkhead to precipitate that outcome. Lewis and Burkhead may have been thought of as equals despite the uneven box scores between the two at year's end.
Burkhead was excellent as a pass catcher, turning 36 targets into 254 yards and three scores on 30 receptions, but his lack of speed limits his upside as a runner, where he has just two career carries of more than 20 yards on 151 attempts. I think Michel could prove a substantial threat to Burkhead's rushing upside, because Michel is just better at it. He's better than Lewis was, too. I understand an I'll Believe It When I See It sort of stance toward rookies, but Michel is a first-round pick who ran for 1,226 yards and 16 touchdowns on just 156 carries last year (7.9 YPC). Burkhead will remain heavily involved and all three Patriots backs could yield fine fantasy returns at their current prices, but expect Michel to emerge as the go-to runner eventually.
Trey Edmunds vs. Jonathan Williams vs. Terrance West, New Orleans
Mark Ingram is suspended four games, and Sean Payton has shown hints of impatience with Ingram in the past that make it fair to wonder if Ingram ever gets his 2017 role back, even after suspension. It was only two years ago that we saw Payton pulling Ingram for Tim Hightower.
So the winner of the big back role in the first four weeks could stay involved all year if they play well. West is the most established name of this trio, but the least talented. Edmunds (6-foot-1, 224 pounds) is the brother of Tremaine and Terrell, and a strong athlete in his own right despite going undrafted out of Maryland. Williams (5-foot-11, 220 pounds) is a former fifth-round pick out of Arkansas, where he outplayed Alex Collins, who broke out with Baltimore last year.
Look for West to amount to little more than a camp body. He has less natural talent than Edmunds and Williams, and his greater level of experience is negated by the fact that he just arrived in June. Edmunds has a full year in the Saints organization, while Williams was poached from the Denver practice squad in November.
Boston Scott vs. Shane Vereen, New Orleans
Whereas the previously mentioned Saints runners are competing to play the Ingram role, Scott and Vereen should compete for the functions that normally go to Alvin Kamara. Vereen's situation is a lot like West's – his brand advantage is basically an illusion. Scott (4.40 40, 6.67 three-cone) possesses better athleticism than the aging Vereen ever did, and as a sixth-round pick he'll be much cheaper than Vereen would be as an eighth-year player. I expect Vereen and West to get cut.
Bilal Powell vs. Elijah McGuire vs. Isaiah Crowell vs. Thomas Rawls, New York Jets
If the other three stay healthy, Rawls is getting cut. So there's that.
Powell and McGuire played 401 and 267 snaps last year, respectively, while Matt Forte claimed 363. There won't be much to go around for them or free agent signing Crowell, whose three-year, $12 million contract indicates no substantial commitment, as much as some might hope to imagine otherwise.
The team has already all but identified McGuire as its third-down back, which figures to leave him with around 250 snaps again this year. McGuire has brilliant pass-catching skills, so this story checks out. Powell, meanwhile, will aim for his third season in a row with over 700 yards rushing, and for years has been trusted by the Jets in passing situations. Crowell is the new and perhaps flashiest name given his 1,800 yards rushing over the last two years, but his volume isn't evidence of superiority to Powell, who has 13 carries of more than 20 yards on his last 309 attempts, while Crowell needed 404 carries to reach the same mark.
As the only one over 220 pounds, Crowell could emerge as the highest fantasy producer of the trio if that weight advantage translates to red-zone carries, and he's otherwise capable for the most part. The obstacle in the meantime is that Powell and McGuire are also mostly competent, so it might take injury for clarity to emerge in this backfield.
James Conner vs. Jaylen Samuels, Pittsburgh
Conner is the incumbent backup to Le'Veon Bell, and the 2017 third-round pick probably has a sizable advantage over Samuels, a rookie fifth-round pick, as the Steelers head into training camp. There is no meaningful distinction between the two as far as pedigree goes, though – Conner was regarded as a reach in the third round and Samuels a steal in the fifth – and Samuels otherwise is both a better athlete and the more versatile of the two.
Conner (6-foot-1, 233 pounds) ran a 4.65-second 40-yard dash at the 2017 combine, while at the 2018 combine Samuels (6-feet, 225 pounds) ran a 4.54-second 40. Pass-catching ability is a limitation for Conner, while Samuels is so advanced in that regard that he often played tight end and slot receiver at North Carolina State. If Samuels can pick up the play book in camp, his advantages regarding skill and athleticism may negate Conner's experience advantage. In Conner's defense, there's a good chance he's a better pure runner between the tackles than Samuels is.
Chris Carson vs. Rashaad Penny, Seattle
I nearly decided to skip this blurb, lest I dignify the idea that it's a competition at all and in the process unintentionally grant more oxygen to the chatter that Carson might win, but it probably bears addressing.
Carson has seniority, but that seniority isn't much. He's a second-year seventh-round pick with 49 career carries. He played four games, only one of them promising, and that was against a 49ers defense hung out to dry by a Brian Hoyer offense. Carson's 208 rushing yards (4.2 YPC) is otherwise unremarkable, and that the rebuilding Seahawks used a first-round pick on Penny should wash away the idea that Seattle is especially attached to Carson.
Carson (6-feet, 218 pounds) ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash compared to a 4.46 for Penny at 5-foot-11, 220 pounds, and the comparison only gets worse for Carson when you start to look at production. Carson ran for 1,076 yards (5.1 YPC) and 13 touchdowns in 21 career games at Oklahoma State. Penny ran for 1,133 yards and 13 touchdowns in the last five games of last year alone. While Carson spent his senior season mostly working as a backup behind Justice Hill, a 171-pound true freshman, Penny concluded his by totaling 2,248 yards (7.8 YPC) and 23 touchdowns, adding two more touchdowns as a receiver and three more yet between kick and punt returns.
For Carson to come out ahead of Penny it would have to be due to some sort of substantial character complication. It sure would make the Seahawks look stupid if they spent a first-round pick on a player like that, right?
Peyton Barber vs. Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay
Barber has some tenure as a third-year player who showed reasonably well to close out last year, and as a high-motor power runner he does indeed bear some resemblance to his cousin Marion. The former undrafted back out of Auburn has just 646 yards (4.0 YPC) and four touchdowns on 163 career carries, however, and will need to put forth a better showing if he's to hold off Jones, the explosive second-round pick out of USC.
Barber said he lost some weight this offseason in the hopes of adding speed, and it's not a bad idea if he wants to keep up with Jones. Barber ran a 4.64-second at his combine, while Jones managed to run a 4.66 despite pulling a hamstring about 15 yards into it. Jones might not be a Jamaal Charles-style burner, but he's still very fast and elusive. A former blue chip recruit before running for 3,619 yards (6.1 YPC) and 39 touchdowns at USC, Jones' big-play ability should grade among the highest in the league at the position.
If Barber can maintain fantasy value despite Jones' arrival, it might have something to do with Jones' relatively light frame at 5-foot-11, 205 pounds. As a 220-pound grinder, Barber may be able to poach some short-yardage touchdowns even if it's Jones getting Tampa into scoring position in the first place.
Derrick Henry vs. Dion Lewis, Tennessee
Rather than one winner and one loser, this backfield is likely to see a rather reliable split between Henry and Lewis, their usage largely dictated by the circumstances.
If Tennessee is playing with a lead, you would think it a good sign for Henry's workload as a 6-foot-3, 247-pound beast with 4.54 speed – a faster time than Lewis ran at 193 pounds (4.57). If Tennessee is playing catch-up, you would figure it good for Lewis, whose 85 receptions for 696 yards on 109 targets in the last three years illustrate a standout skill set in passing situations.
The idea of Lewis pushing aside Henry is probably far fetched. Yes, new coach Mike Vrabel is clearly fond of Lewis after signing him to a four-year, $19.8 million contract in free agency, but the signing was likely little more than an acknowledgment of Henry's pass-catching limitations. Even if Vrabel intended to leave Henry on the bench, there's no evidence that Lewis can hold up under such a workload at 5-foot-7 and in the 190-pound range. His 180 carries last year were a career high, and more than he totaled in the prior six years combined (149).
Both players should benefit from the arrival of offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, who last year worked under Sean McVay. High tempo, frequent motion, and increased misdirection should help create openings for the running game, and both Henry and Lewis have shown the talent to capitalize. Rather than one or the other, the correct answer in this case might be 'both,' not unlike Michel and Burkhead in New England.
