IDP Analysis: Turn Down for Watt

RISING

Blake Martinez, (3-4) ILB, GB

When Martinez arrived to Green Bay as a rookie fourth-round pick out of Stanford, he was just one part of a four-person logjam of unproven youngsters vying for a starting role on the inside of Green Bay's 3-4. But the Packers have since cut Carl Bradford and Sam Barrington, leaving just Martinez and Jake Ryan as the starting inside linebacker candidates for Week 1. With Ryan catching up after missing training camp time with a hamstring injury, Martinez should actually function as the Packers' top inside linebacker for the foreseeable future. He's on the LB2 radar in most formats as a result. So long as the snaps are there for Martinez, so too should be the tackles. He finished his 2015 season at Stanford with 140 tackles in 14 games, and his Combine workout was quite good, with his 40 (4.71), 20-yard shuttle (4.2) and three-cone drill (6.98) indicating standout athleticism.

Ibraheim Campbell, S, CLE

Campbell is unproven and should therefore be viewed more as a speculative investment than a safe one, but he heads into Week 1 listed as Cleveland's starting strong safety. Campbell was a fourth-round pick in 2015 after serving as a four-year starter at Northwestern, where he most notably totaled 100 tackles as a freshman in 2011. His ability to immediately earn a three-down role in college and produce prolifically in that capacity bodes well for his general developmental trajectory, even if he has only modest pedigree. Given that starting free safety Jordan Poyer is a former cornerback, Campbell could see steady work defending the run this year, making him a dark horse to push for triple-digit tackles despite posting just 16 as a rookie.

Mario Williams, DE, MIA

As a first overall pick and generally successful NFL end, Williams has relatively high expectations going into any given year, and rarely comes at a discount in IDP formats. He therefore evades "sleeper" status, but going into 2016 he looks like a player who might prove a bargain in IDP leagues. The public likely soured on Williams after last year, and understandably so – his five sacks were weak and his 19 tackles was an almost impossibly low total. He turned 31 this winter, and conventional wisdom says a decline after the age of 30 generally indicates a more drastic decline yet to come. If Williams' assurances mean anything to you, though, there's reason to think he'll bounce back in a big way in 2016. He headed to Miami in the offseason, leaving behind a scheme where he was miscast for one that he says is a better fit for his skill set – one where Williams is allowed, as he says, to "just go." Williams is basically implying that his gap responsibilities have been scaled back compared to what he had in Buffalo, and the lesser gap responsibility directly results in more freedom to just beat the blocker directly in front of him and chase after the ballcarrier. Considering he's only two years removed from a 14.5-sack season, Williams is a smart bet to more than double the sack total he posted in Buffalo last year.

J.J. Watt, (3-4) DE, HOU

When news broke in July that Watt underwent back surgery to repair a herniated disk, the thinking was that his Week 1 availability would be unlikely. Indeed, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported, according to a source, that, as of July 21, an eight-week absence was the best-case scenario for Watt, implying a minimum of one missed game and an indefinite spell of limited snap counts. Well, Week 1 has arrived and Watt is all but confirmed to start Houston's opener against the Bears on Sunday, even though Sunday marks roughly the 7.5-week mark. It's not clear whether the initial prognosis was merely ill-informed or if Watt is just some kind of physical marvel in the midst of a superhuman recovery, but at this point it's fair to wonder whether he'll even be limited in Week 1. Watt has in any case reestablished his status as the top defensive line IDP heading into the first week.

Kyle Van Noy, OLB, DET

Van Noy has been a major disappointment since the Lions took him in the second round of the 2014 draft, playing in just 23 games and totaling a meager 16 tackles while almost exclusively playing special teams. It's not as if the linebackers playing ahead of him were all-stars – Josh Bynes, Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis among them – so Van Noy's failure to earn playing time was especially concerning. It appears that he might have turned a corner this offseason, however, as he's projected to start alongside Whitehead and DeAndre Levy. Van Noy isn't guaranteed IDP relevance in light of this – he still needs to beat out Whitehead for nickel formation snaps to realistically push for triple-digit tackles – but at least it's now within the realm of possibility.

FALLING

Pernell McPhee, (3-4) OLB, CHI

McPhee was placed on the PUP list due to his ailing knee, keeping him out for at least the first six games of 2016. That development is troubling enough on its own, but the long-term outlook for McPhee looks especially troublesome when you note that the knee surgery he's recovering from – referred to as a scope – occurred all the way back in February. We're closing in on seven months since that surgery, yet the average scope would leave a player week-to-week, not month-to-month over a span of more than a half year. It seems like something may be amiss with McPhee's recovery, be it a setback or a mischaracterization of his condition. At this point it seems that while it's safe to say McPhee will miss the first six games, it's not safe to say he will play in the seventh.

Cameron Wake, DE, MIA

Wake is not expected to start for the Dolphins in 2016, as Miami will use Wake as an off-the-bench pass-rushing specialist. It's not an especially surprising outcome given that Wake is 34 years old and making a return from an October Achilles' tendon tear, but it's still noteworthy for the fact that it will significantly limit Wake's IDP upside. Even if he manages to push for double-digit sacks, he'll likely struggle to approach 30 tackles. Wake was never much of a tackle source in the first place, as he had just nine in seven games last year, and just 75 in the two prior years combined. Jason Jones is expected to start over Wake opposite Mario Williams, but Jones is unlikely to make an IDP impact in most formats, due to both durability and production issues throughout his career.

Paul Worrilow, Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, ATL

Weatherspoon was one of the league's rising stars at linebacker before a swarm of injuries set him back three years ago, and Worrilow as an elite IDP as recently as 2014, but both players appear doomed to general IDP irrelevance in 2016. The Falcons announced that, while Weatherspoon and Worrilow will both play this year, it will be off the bench behind a pair of rookies – second-round pick Deion Jones (LSU) and fourth-round pick De'Vondre Campbell (Minnesota). Worrilow and Weatherspoon are off the IDP radar in most cases for the time being, and unfortunately for prospective IDP owners, a resulting rotation might make this a case where Jones and Campbell disrupt the value of Worrilow and Weatherspoon without necessarily creating much value in themselves, at least as long as Worrilow and Weatherspoon are still rotating in.