This article is part of our IDP Analysis series.
As we near the start of training camp, it's a great time to get an early look at some players who could be in line to outproduce expectations and become excellent values on draft day. Some of these players stand to benefit from a change in scenery, while others appear on the verge of breaking out. We'll look at defensive linemen this week before covering the other positions in the following two editions of this article.
Vic Beasley – Falcons
After posting an amazing 15.5 sacks in 2016, Beasley fell to just five last year, and will likely go from a highly sought-after fantasy player last year to one who could be much more of a value in this year's drafts. One of the main reasons he likely underperformed last year was that the Falcons weren't playing with the lead nearly as much as they had in 2016, but after adding Calvin Ridley to their WR corps, they could easily see their offense bounce back this year. If the offense gets clicking again, even though Beasley may not reach his staggering sack total of two years ago, reaching double-digits should be very doable.
Myles Garrett – Browns
Sure, the guy was the top pick in the 2016 draft and that will be well-known by most fantasy owners. However, this may be the last time to get any type of discount on a player who could be one of the very best pass rushers in the NFL. Garrett had a solid,
As we near the start of training camp, it's a great time to get an early look at some players who could be in line to outproduce expectations and become excellent values on draft day. Some of these players stand to benefit from a change in scenery, while others appear on the verge of breaking out. We'll look at defensive linemen this week before covering the other positions in the following two editions of this article.
Vic Beasley – Falcons
After posting an amazing 15.5 sacks in 2016, Beasley fell to just five last year, and will likely go from a highly sought-after fantasy player last year to one who could be much more of a value in this year's drafts. One of the main reasons he likely underperformed last year was that the Falcons weren't playing with the lead nearly as much as they had in 2016, but after adding Calvin Ridley to their WR corps, they could easily see their offense bounce back this year. If the offense gets clicking again, even though Beasley may not reach his staggering sack total of two years ago, reaching double-digits should be very doable.
Myles Garrett – Browns
Sure, the guy was the top pick in the 2016 draft and that will be well-known by most fantasy owners. However, this may be the last time to get any type of discount on a player who could be one of the very best pass rushers in the NFL. Garrett had a solid, though unspectacular, seven sacks in 11 games as a rookie, but with the Browns playing most games with a deficit on the scoreboard, it wasn't like he had many chances to pin his ears back and get after the passer. Don't be surprised if Cleveland is significantly improved this year, and potentially playing either with the lead or in close games far more often than in the past. Favorable game scripts could provide the perfect scenario for Garrett to have a huge sack total that could help teams win fantasy titles.
Muhammad Wilkerson – Packers
To say that Wilkerson was a disappointment during his time with the Jets is an understatement. Although he notched double-digit sacks in 2013 and 2015, he failed to reach six in any of his other five seasons with the team. It certainly looks like he was a prime candidate for a player needing a change in scenery, and not only did he get out of New York, he goes to a perennial playoff contender in the Packers. Playing on a team with Aaron Rodgers should afford him plenty of opportunities to play with leads, forcing opponents to go pass-heavy. That seems to be exactly what Wilkerson needs to return to being an elite IDP by piling up big sack numbers.
Danielle Hunter – Vikings
Not many players were more disappointing last year than Hunter, who broke out in 2016 with 12.5 sacks, only to earn a lofty draft spot before generating just seven sacks, though defenses were certainly keying on him, which ultimately had much to do with his drop off in production. However, the Vikings were able to add Sheldon Richardson this offseason, and he gives this defense another elite-level player, which should help to take away some of the attention that seemed to slow down Hunter last year. He should come at a bit of a discount this year, and his enormous upside makes him a value selection.
Solomon Thomas – 49ers
After being selected third overall in the 2017 draft, Thomas played 14 games but only produced three sacks. It definitely didn't help that the 49ers were playing many games from behind, and opponents weren't forced to be one-dimensional on offense, so Thomas wasn't given an abundance of opportunities to make a huge splash. But, as the 49ers enter year two under head coach Kyle Shanahan with an offense on the rise with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, they could find themselves playing with many more leads than they had a year ago. Along with an anticipated second-year improvement from the DE, a more competitive team should help him to be in position for a big breakout campaign.
Michael Brockers – Rams
Brockers was only able to amass five sacks in seasons 2014 to 2016, but with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips calling the shots on defense last year, he had an impressive total of 4.5. However, he could be in line for a massive jump in production based on a much-improved situation this year, as the team added Ndamukong Suh to pair with Aaron Donald to create one of the most dominant duos ever to compose two-thirds of a three-man line. In addition, the Rams added CBs Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, which will make it difficult for opposing QBs to get rid of the football quickly, giving the pass rush more time to get in the backfield. The main beneficiary of the Rams' offseason additions should be Brockers, whom opponents won't be able to plan to stop, and it's not out of the realm of possibility for him to reach a career-high double-digit sack total.
Dion Jordan – Seahawks
After his failed tenure with the Dolphins in which Jordan notched just three sacks in 30 games, he found new life when the Seahawks acquired him last year. It wasn't until Week 10 that he saw his first action with his new team, but in five games he was able to post four sacks, including one in each of his last three games of the year. He'll be expected to return as one of the main components of the team's pass rush, and after finally playing to his potential, the former first-round pick could be a late selection who could return excellent fantasy value.
Wes Horton – Panthers
Especially in deeper leagues, Horton could be a strong, under-the-radar producer, especially after posting just 14 sacks over his five-year career. However, he had a mini-breakout, and he parlayed his first 16-game season since 2014 into 5.5 sacks last year. Not only will he benefit playing across the line from top pass rusher Mario Addison, but with Dontari Poe added to the interior line with mainstay Kawann Short, Horton projects to be the Panther pass rusher to receive the least attention from opposing offenses. At the very least, he has a good chance of topping his 5.5 sacks of a year ago, and in the best-case scenario he flirts with 10 sacks.
Tyrone Crawford – Cowboys
Over his first five years with the Cowboys, Crawford failed to exceed five sacks in a year. However, he flashed over the first seven games last season, when he collected four sacks, before failing to add to that total in the last nine games. It's certainly worrisome that he's already established his ceiling by averaging 4.5 sacks over the last three campaigns, but in deeper leagues, he could be worth a flier on the hope that he'll extend the early-season success of 2017 into a full season of consistent production.
