This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Wild Card Weekend
The NFL playoffs get underway with Wildcard Weekend. The first matchup in the AFC features the Houston Texans hosting the Los Angeles Chargers. Let's dive into the betting markets for this game and highlight some wagers that could prove profitable.
Mike Barner's season record: 52-54 (-7.84 units)
Texans vs. Chargers Betting Odds
Chargers: Spread -3 (-108), -154 Moneyline (FanDuel)
Texans: Spread +3 (-112), +140 Moneyline (bet365)
Game Total: Over 42 points (BetMGM) Under 42.5 points (bet365)
The Chargers won their final three games of the regular season and went 6-3 on the road this season. The Texans went just 1-3 over their final four home games.
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Texans vs. Chargers Betting Picks
Ladd McConkey 70+ receiving yards (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
McConkey concluded the regular season by posting at least 87 receiving yards in six of his last seven games. He was heavily involved in the Chargers offense during his rookie campaign, including targets on 23.3% of his routes run. That resulted in McConkey finishing with at least six targets in 14 of the 16 games that he played.
McConkey's receiving yards prop itself is set at 74.5 on DraftKings and 75.5 on FanDuel. Let's pay the juice here a bit and just need him to finish with at least 70 receiving yards for this to hit. During the regular season, the opposing team's leading wide receiver finished with at least 70 receiving yards in 11 of 17 games against the Texans.
Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Herbert finished with only 23 passing touchdowns this season. A lot of that is thanks to muted numbers over the first six games. He had just one game with multiple touchdown passes during that span. Since then, Herbert has recorded at least two touchdown passes in seven of his last 11 games. That included throwing for at least two touchdowns in each of his last four games.
The Texans allowed 31 passing touchdowns this season, the third-most in the league. Only the Panthers and Falcons allowed more scores through the air. With the combination of Herbert's recent performance, this favorable matchup and plus odds, this wager is well worth taking a chance on.
Chargers Moneyline (-152 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
The Texans went 10-7 this season, but they weren't that impressive. Their point differential was 0. By comparison, the Chargers had a +101 point differential. The Texans also went just 1-5 against teams with winning records. Despite not having homefield advantage, look for the Chargers to win and advance to the next round.
Texans vs. Chargers Prediction
We're already on the Chargers to win the game. It's worth paying the juice just for them to win, rather than to cover the spread on the road. Still, if forced to pick the side, taking the Chargers to cover is the way to go.
