Proper free agency still doesn't start until March 13, when contracts expire, but thanks to cuts a few notable players were free to sign with new teams as of Saturday evening.
The headline, of course, was Jacksonville's release and Kansas City's subsequent signing of Carlos Hyde on a one-year deal worth just short of $3 million. Hyde's arrival two years removed from consecutive seasons over 900 yards and six touchdowns on the ground figures to rattle the market for Damien Williams, whose ADP sat at 25.5 on DRAFT and 31.88 on BestBall10s as of this publication. Hyde has uncommon athleticism for someone with a 229-pound frame and all the anchor strength you'd expect otherwise. Particularly as a short-yardage and red-zone threat, Hyde isn't easily dismissed.
With that said, it's difficult to see Hyde threatening Williams' general distinction as the team's top running back. Both running backs are cheap and the Chiefs are committed to neither in an investment sense – their contracts both contain only $1.6 million in guaranteed money – but Williams fits the offense better and has recent production in his favor. The Hyde signing is probably best understood as insurance against the chance that Williams' excellent seven-game audition at the end of 2018 turns out to be a flash in the pan.
There are reasons to lean either way. Williams' career rushing average was ugly in Miami, where he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in four years. But the biggest of those
Proper free agency still doesn't start until March 13, when contracts expire, but thanks to cuts a few notable players were free to sign with new teams as of Saturday evening.
The headline, of course, was Jacksonville's release and Kansas City's subsequent signing of Carlos Hyde on a one-year deal worth just short of $3 million. Hyde's arrival two years removed from consecutive seasons over 900 yards and six touchdowns on the ground figures to rattle the market for Damien Williams, whose ADP sat at 25.5 on DRAFT and 31.88 on BestBall10s as of this publication. Hyde has uncommon athleticism for someone with a 229-pound frame and all the anchor strength you'd expect otherwise. Particularly as a short-yardage and red-zone threat, Hyde isn't easily dismissed.
With that said, it's difficult to see Hyde threatening Williams' general distinction as the team's top running back. Both running backs are cheap and the Chiefs are committed to neither in an investment sense – their contracts both contain only $1.6 million in guaranteed money – but Williams fits the offense better and has recent production in his favor. The Hyde signing is probably best understood as insurance against the chance that Williams' excellent seven-game audition at the end of 2018 turns out to be a flash in the pan.
There are reasons to lean either way. Williams' career rushing average was ugly in Miami, where he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in four years. But the biggest of those samples was only 46 carries, and Hyde's 3.7 YPC average over the last two years is its own cause for concern. That's particularly true if you take in William's previously mentioned seven-game stretch to close out 2018, when he ran for 414 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 5.05 yards per carry.
Williams is far superior to Hyde as a pass catcher, on the other hand, which can help you segue into a better understanding of why Williams is a better running back for this offense in general. For his career, Hyde's 168 targets yielded just 119 catches for 667 yards and three touchdowns (70.8 percent catch rate, 4.0 YPT). Despite whatever concerns there might be with Williams' career rushing efficiency, he never struggled to produce as a pass catcher with the Dolphins. With Miami he posted a totally solid 85 catches for 733 yards and six touchdowns on 115 targets (73.9 percent catch rate, 6.4 YPT), which highlights the fact that all Williams needs to thrive is space.
Williams' effectiveness behind the average offensive line is unclear, but his ability to track the ball and then act in the open field is pretty much beyond doubt. Particularly with Patrick Mahomes conducting it, the Andy Reid offense is built more around exploiting space than trying to overpower the opponent. Perhaps Williams has vision limitations that explain his lagging pre-KC rushing average, but Reid's ability to create space helps offset it. When Williams has room to run, he's always a problem. He's stronger than you might assume at over 220 pounds, yet his 4.45 speed gives him the wheels to exploit openings, and as a defense you tend to concede those every so often while worrying more so about how Mahomes might embarrass you. Hyde will likely run well, and he's a good bet to poach carries in scoring range, but there's not much reason to think he can match Williams as a pure runner in this offense. If the pass-catching comparison is no contest and the rushing comparison unclear, then that's very reassuring for Williams in this offense.
The whole point of the Kansas City offense is to maximize Mahomes' incredible talent, and Williams' presence meaningfully improves Mahomes' effectiveness. That can only take Williams so far given that Hyde will likely prove an effective runner off the bench and from scoring range, but the idea of Hyde playing early in games between the 20s just doesn't fit the blueprint. It remains possible that Kansas City adds a running back in the draft, but this is a weak one for runners and it's difficult to imagine the Chiefs selecting one early.
However much of a threat Hyde might be for short-range touchdowns, the looming decrease in Williams' price could easily account for it. The running back pool thins quickly, and by the mid-third round you're already liable to be down to a group of flawed candidates. If his BB10 ADP falls from 32 to 42 he'll be going at roughly the same price as Derrius Guice (41.53), and lower than Derrick Henry (37.4) or Phillip Lindsay (39.58). If that's the scenario, give me Williams 10 times out of 10.
As a general idea I don't like fading the starting running back in the league's best offense, especially if I can get him in the fourth round. It generally seems to me that the market is already losing sight of the fact that Williams totaled 602 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage in his last six games. He'll be a little more difficult to utilize in re-draft perhaps, but I'm still buying desperately if that's the new price. If William's price surprisingly does not drop then that would perhaps be more complicated, but I think I'm still buying. I'll compare it to Fred Taylor and Stacey Mack if I have to.
Hyde will in any case warrant a jump in ADP, and probably a major one. Even if he can't beat Williams for the starting role, the previously mentioned goal-line opportunity should be enough to justify a pick in the top 150 rather than his current BB10 ADP of 217.86. If Williams were to get hurt, Hyde would be a league-winner.
