Football Draft Kit: Running Back Renaissance?

This time last year, Antonio Brown was widely touted as the smart No. 1 overall pick, followed by Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones as the most popular choices at the second and third spots. The rest of the opening round usually included four or five running backs from the group of Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Lamar Miller and Ezekiel Elliott, but wide receivers tended to dominate the second and third rounds. A typical draft saw about 15 receivers taken within the first 30 picks, while expert drafts often had closer to 20 come off the board.

The rush for top wideouts certainly made sense, especially in PPR leagues, as the year before nine receivers totaled at least 80 catches, 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns, with Julio Jones becoming the first wideout in the fantasy football era to lead the NFL in scrimmage yards. It seemed a rare collection of elite talent at the position was contributing to a growing production gap between WR1/2s and WR3/4s.

Meanwhile, Gurley's 1,106 rushing yards placed him third in the league in 2015, and Peterson and Devonta Freeman were the only running backs to top 1,400 scrimmage yards and score more than seven touchdowns. Three of the top six running backs in per-game standard scoring – Bell, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster – disappointed fantasy owners because they played six or fewer games.

The 2015 results added fuel to the fire of pre-existing narratives about an increasingly pass-happy league, committee backfields and the difficulty of staying healthy as an NFL running back. Never mind that the previous season, 2014, ended with seven running backs and only three wide receivers in the top 10 for scrimmage yards, with each of the top-10 backs in per-game standard scoring playing at least 13 games.

RETURN OF THE RUNNING BACK

As fate would have it, the upper echelon at running back not only bounced back in 2016, but also reached a level of productivity that hadn't been seen since the mid-aughts. For the first time since 2006, three running backs topped 19 points per game in standard formats, with Johnson, Elliott and Bell easily hitting that mark on their way to finishing 1-2-3 in scrimmage yards – followed by DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard and Freeman, before T.Y. Hilton finally repped the wideouts at No. 8 on the list.

And it wasn't just a matter of the elite performers reaching a higher level than usual, as 14 backs averaged more than 12 fantasy points (min. 12 games) – compared to seven in 2015, nine in 2014 and 11 in 2013. Six of those produced 15-plus per game, up from just one in 2015, five in 2014 and four in 2013.

This wasn't a blip so much as an explosion, producing results so jarring that they couldn't merely be dismissed as a small-sample fluke. Of course, it wouldn't be any smarter to assume one year of stats equates to an unwavering trend, so we're left to parse through logical explanations and data with the hope of finding something actionable to help us with fantasy decisions in 2017 and beyond.

Theories on Running Backs

One popular theory behind 2016's outburst is that running backs have increasingly become a key part of passing games. This one can be debunked pretty easily, as league-wide totals for RB targets (3,365) and catches (2,512) hit their lowest point since 2012 last season, after reaching high-water marks of 3,656 and 2,705, respectively, during the fantasy running back abyss of 2015.

The receiving numbers for backs in 2013, 2014 and 2016 were essentially the same, with 2015 sticking out a bit for a minor jump in production even as the position cratered in the fantasy world. This was unexpected to find, but it does perhaps makes sense, as the NFL's general preference for pass-catching backs is far from a new development, and the lack of workhorses in 2015 probably left a few more snaps for receiving specialists.

So, maybe what's happening isn't teams targeting running backs more often as a whole, but rather that more of those targets are going to backs that also get heavy rushing workloads?

While Bell and Johnson obviously fit the bill, Murray was the only other player last season to finish top 10 at the position for carries and targets, with six others (nine total) finishing in the top 20 for both stats. Those numbers are similar to results from recent seasons, as there were at least 10 backs with 200 carries and 50 targets each year from 2012 to 2014; the number dropped to six in 2015, but then rebounded to nine last season.

Another theory proposes that the NFL, like a capitalist economy, is cyclical in nature. What the theory essentially suggests is that the growth of passing games results in defenses gearing up to stop the pass, which in turn allows offenses to run the ball more effectively and more often. The first part may partially be true – league-wide YPC now fluctuates around 4.2 instead of 4.0 – but the second part definitely is not, as teams across the league averaged an all-time-low 26 rush attempts per game last season, marking the fourth consecutive year a record low was set. Last year's 108.9 rushing yards per team game was the sixth-lowest ever and second lowest since 1999, though it did represent the slightest of upticks from 2015's 108.8.

So where did all this extra fantasy value come from, if not from an overall rise in rushing production or added involvement of backs in the passing game? Part of the answer lies in the painted part of the field, where last year's 443 rushing touchdowns league-wide was a significant jump from 2015 (365), 2014 (380) and even 2010-2013 (399-410 each year). The production was backed (and largely caused) by goal-line volume, with teams attempting 580 rushes inside the 5-yard line – compared to 483 in both 2015 and 2014, 541 in 2013 and 512 in 2012.

The increase here 2015 to 2016 is too drastic to simply write off as a fluke, but at the same time there isn't a clear explanation and it isn't a multi-year trend, which suggests we'll need at least another season of data to reach any solid conclusions. Maybe teams developed an even greater preference for running from in close than they used to have, or maybe they just took advantage of a favorable season health-wise among running backs.

Speaking of which, the impact of health can't be ignored when discussing last year's RB boom, as each of the top-12 per-game scorers played at least 12 games, with C.J. Anderson (No. 13) and Theo Riddick (No. 20) the only backs among the top 20 per game to miss the mark. Of course, that stat doesn't include disappointing early draft picks like Peterson, Charles, Doug Martin, Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls – all of whom were typically selected in the first five rounds, lost significant time to injures and didn't produce at a high level even when they played.

So, injuries still took a big toll on the position, just not to the same massive extent as in 2015. A quick glance at 2013 and 2014 shows similarly favorable health among the top per-game scorers, albeit with the usual assortment of early round busts who missed time and also struggled on a per-game basis. This shouldn't be too much of a surprise, as players who miss a bunch of games due to injury typically aren't at their best even when on the field.

WHAT HAPPENED TO NO. 1 RECEIVERS?

2015 was a feeding frenzy for the league's elite wideouts, but unlike 2016's RB boom, the WR production was part of a multi-year trend. 2014 saw eight players – just one fewer than in 2015 – record at least 80 catches, 1,200 yards and nine scores, after nine players did so in 2013 (compared to four each season in 2011 and 2012). The high-end WR1s might have produced at an unprecedented level in 2015, but the upper echelon at the position had already been thriving for a few years.

Then came 2016, when just four wideouts reached the 80-1,200-9 mark. Hilton led the league with 1,448 receiving yards and Mike Evans finished as the lowest-scoring overall WR1 (208.1 fantasy points) since 2006. There wasn't an obvious, immediate explanation, as A.J. Green, Dez Bryant and Sammy Watkins were the only elite talents to miss more than a couple games, while Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, Demaryius Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald each dropped by at least two fantasy points per game despite playing full or nearly full seasons.

Following three consecutive years in which at least five receivers had 200 fantasy points and at least 16 had 150, last season saw those marks drop to three and 11, respectively. In PPR formats, the drop was a bit less pronounced, yet still glaring.

Theories on Wide Receivers

We've already shot down one theory – that 2015 simply created unrealistic explanations and 2016 wasn't actually so bad for WR1s – by looking at 2013 and 2014, both of which featured plenty of big seasons from elite receivers. Yes, 2016 really was that bad for WR1s by modern standards.

And as was the case at running back, an overall change in volume for the position isn't the answer, as wideouts actually accounted for more targets, catches and yards in 2016 than in 2015, albeit with a nearly identical cumulative fantasy point total due to a drop in touchdowns (from 521 to 499). While league-wide passing numbers were essentially the same in terms of yards, completions and attempts the last two seasons, passing touchdowns dropped from 842 in 2015 to 786 in 2016, a four-year low.

A dip in passing/receiving scores – which relates to the increase in RB goal-line usage and touchdowns – can perhaps partially explain the WR1 struggles last season, as top receivers typically account for a disproportionate number of receiving touchdowns even beyond what would be expected based on their lofty percentages of team receptions and yards (don't tell Julio Jones). But it still added up to a loss of only 22 touchdowns from the previous season; not nearly enough to explain the entire phenomenon.

The larger contributing factor was a spread in production across the wideout position in 2016, with more players reaching levels like 70, 60, 50 and 40 receptions, covering a range that stretches from WR3 material to waiver fodder. In fantasy terms, there were 49 wideouts with 100 or more points (standard scoring) and 65 with 75-plus, compared to 44 and 58, respectively, the previous season. 2016 was a good year for plucking serviceable receivers off waivers as bye-week or injury replacements, but the glut of mediocrity came at the expense of stars.

It's a result we'd expect in a season full of injuries to the position's top names, but as mentioned, that wasn't really how it played out in 2016. Looking at the top-20 wideouts in standard scoring from 2015, only Green (No. 8), Eric Decker (No. 10), Allen Hurns (No. 14), Watkins (No. 15) and Jeremy Maclin (No. 17) played fewer than 14 games last season – and Hurns and Maclin were held back by decreased usage and poor performance more so than injuries.

There was actually more injury-related turnover at running back, where nine of the 20 leading scorers from 2015, including three of the top four, played 13 or fewer games in 2016. And yet, 2016 still ended up as the year of the RB1, led by Johnson, Elliott and Bell.

BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER

We might end up looking back at 2016 as the year when running backs reasserted their dominance over wideouts in the fantasy world, but it seems just as likely, if not more so, that what actually happened was a perfect storm of circumstances that led to a peculiar season in defiance of trends from previous years.

Part of the RB re-emergence narrative is a result of 2015 being a bit of an oddball campaign in the opposite direction, with the split between high-end wideout and high-end running back production reaching a level that isn't sustainable even in a league in which passing has increasingly taken control. Some level of bounce back was inevitable, and the pendulum ultimately swung much further than anyone expected.

It would be a whole lot easier to have confidence that last year's results were the beginning of a trend if the overall league-wide production at the two positions had significantly changed from previous years. But as noted, that wasn't actually what happened, with the exception of a sizable increase in rush attempts near the goal line. Perhaps that's the start of its own trend, or maybe at this time next year we'll be chalking it up as another single-season oddity.

It's also possible defenses around the league responded to the previous few seasons (2013-2015) by putting a great emphasis on shutting down top wideouts in 2016, which in turn caused offenses to rely more heavily on their No. 2 and 3 receivers, and on their running backs near the goal line. But again, there isn't any hard evidence to support such a theory, and one season worth of stats isn't enough to reach a definitive conclusion.

With no clear answer to the RB/WR dilemma one way of the other, we're left to do what we as fantasy owners do best: assess each commodity on an individual basis.

Skepticism about last year's running back rebirth doesn't mean Brown, Jones and Beckham should jump back to the top of drafts ahead of Johnson, Bell and Elliott. After all, the three aforementioned backs each combine elite running ability with plus pass-catching skills, and they play in offenses with solid quarterbacks, strong offensive lines and complementary weapons that occupy the attention of opposing safeties. And each of the three is 25 or younger, with only Bell having a questionable injury (and suspension) history. It's been a long time since we entered an NFL season with three running backs in such incredible spots to produce huge numbers.

But while the "big three" deserve their spots at the top of drafts, the excitement over running backs should probably be tempered thereafter. The other backs touted as potential top-20 picks come with at least one major drawback, whether it's age and career workload (Murray, McCoy, Marshawn Lynch), competition for carries (Murray, Freeman, Miller), competition for passing-down snaps (Gurley, Freeman, Jay Ajayi, Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette) or recent struggles with rushing efficiency (Gordon, Gurley).

Keep in mind that Brown, Jones and Beckham have each produced three consecutive top-eight finishes among wideouts in standard scoring leagues – there's no similar level of consistency at running back. The wide receiver spot also features four others (Hilton, Evans, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders) looking to build on streaks of three or more consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Again, there aren't comparably consistent performers at running back, where Freeman is the only player who topped 1,000 rushing yards in both 2015 and 2016.

Given the inherently high injury risk at the position, along with the reliance on offensive line play, it isn't difficult to imagine a scenario in which 2017's top 10 at running back only includes two or three holdovers from 2016. That was the case the last two years, with only Freeman and Johnson finishing top 10 in both 2015 and 2016, while only Miller and Matt Forte earned a spot in both 2014 and 2015.

A LESSON FROM THE PAST

Looking deeper into the past, we can take a valuable lesson about making assumptions based on a single season's results by examining the 2011 campaign, when Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham led a tight end group that had 14 players surpass 750 yards. It was the first season of the fantasy football era in which more than nine tight ends eclipsed that number, with Gronkowski (1,327 yards) and Graham (1,310) producing what still stands as the position's two most prolific single-season yardage marks.

There was talk of tight ends becoming nearly as important as backs and receivers in the fantasy world, following a long stretch of seasons in which Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten had been the only reliable commodities at the position. In addition to Gronk and Graham, the position was led by promising young players like Aaron Hernandez (910 yards), Dustin Keller (815), Fred Davis (793), Brandon Pettigrew (777), Jermichael Finley (767) and Jared Cook (759).

So what happened in 2012? Gronk and Graham remained productive, but the former missed five games and the latter dropped to 982 yards. Among the six aforementioned young tight ends, not a single one finished among the top 15 in standard scoring at the position, and none ever re-emerged as a particularly useful fantasy starter. Only seven tight ends topped 750 yards that season, with 10 then reaching the mark in 2013, nine in 2014, eight in 2015 and six in 2016.

Gronk and Graham were the real deal, but the position's upper echelon otherwise consisted mostly of the familiar Gates-Gonzalez-Witten trio for a couple more seasons, with a slew of other players mixing in and out until Greg Olsen emerged as a reliable asset. We're still waiting to this day for the position to provide more than five or six year-to-year bankable commodities.

This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.