Exploiting the Matchups: Unleash the Beast

In football, much as it can be in life, sometimes you have to lose something to gain something new, perhaps something even better.

In a season wrought with injuries, after a week that saw some extremely big ones, that's the mantra we need to keep reminding ourselves of. That's what needs to drive us to find new ways to improve. After all, we're not even at the halfway point of the season and suddenly, for one week at least, Roger Lewis might be the No. 1 receiver for the Giants. Odell Beckham (ankle) became the second top-10 draft pick to hit injured reserve – following David Johnson (wrist) – and hopefully he'll be the last. But he certainly won't be the last guy to land on IR. So we must train our minds to be forward-thinking, planning for how we will compete as much as possible weekly while also keeping the long term in mind with some well-studied stashes. To best prepare for the next domino to fall, we must keep league format top of mind when carefully planning those bench stashes – is your league PPR scoring, 2QB, a superflex, a return yardage format, or my favorite, a keeper league?

Here's a quick look at my favorite stashes at each position before getting to why we're here:

QB – Jared Goff

In any formats that allow two starting quarterbacks, Goff is undoubtedly owned already. He's otherwise there for the taking in many leagues, and given what we can surmise from five games, there are only about 8-to-10 quarterbacks you should without question start ahead of Goff every week. Translation: he's already among the best backup fantasy quarterbacks, even if he's not getting that credit yet. He has a diverse group of underrated weapons at his disposal and one of the best play callers in the game helping him to average a healthy 8.3 YPA. With the stellar Jaguars pass defense on tap, it's safe to wait a week to add him, and perhaps even through his Week 8 bye. But if he continues his improvement, rostering him down the stretch when he plays two of the worst pass defenses in football in the fantasy playoffs (Philly in Week 14 and Tennessee in Week 16) may pay huge dividends.

RB – D'Onta Foreman

There are a lot of trendy names in this rookie running back class right now, but Foreman is one that may still be available in the free agent pool. If he is, whether you're a Lamar Miller owner or not, he's a must-add. The nimble bowling ball is getting work in a modest timeshare now, but his upside is huge in an offense with Deshaun Watson at the helm should anything happen to Miller. With a fantasy playoff slate that includes three of the 10 friendliest defenses to opposing tailbacks, Foreman could be a season-winner down the stretch if the backfield becomes his.

WR – Josh Doctson

There's no telling how good this 2016 first-rounder can be, but if his first catch of the season – a 52-yard scoring grab in Week 3 – is any indication, the sky's the limit for Doctson. Boasting size, long-striding speed and the hops and hands to be a red zone terror, his role in the Washington offense coming off a bye week could be a game-changer for a lucky fantasy team willing to roll the dice with a stash. Over the next eight games Doctson gets to work his acrobatics against the weak secondaries of the 49ers, Eagles, Saints and Cowboys (twice), so there's starter upside if he comes along quickly.

TE – Tyler Higbee

Spoiler Alert! You'll read plenty more below about why I love Higbee's upside. One thing not mentioned in his upgrade though: he draws a Giants defense that's ultra-friendly to tight ends coming out of his bye in Week 9. Gronk owners take note – your dude needs a replacement that week. Invest now.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are players you wouldn't roll out every week while Downgrades are generally lineup mainstays but for whom you might want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Philip Rivers, LAC at OAK

The Raiders have not allowed a lot of passing scores this year (only six), but they have also failed to intercept a single ball, have given up the fourth most YPA (8.1) and are bottom six in both completion percentage (68.7) and passer rating allowed (106.6). For his part, Rivers only has one blemish – an ugly three-interception effort against Kansas City – on a resume that otherwise has him fifth in passing yards and seventh in touchdowns. Coming off two outings in which he has totaled over 600 yards and five TDs, the gunslinging vet is poised to torch a division rival.

Kevin Hogan, CLE at HOU

In less than a full 60 minutes of action Hogan has passed for 377 yards and three touchdowns while adding 35 on the ground and completing 68.4 percent of his throws for 9.9 YPA. A highly underrated athlete (he ran for over 100 yards in less than three quarters of action versus Cincinnati last year), Hogan has improved dramatically as a passer this year to become an intriguing dual-threat quarterback. Now he gets to step in for an ineffective DeShone Kizer and go toe-to-toe with one of the premier dual threats in Deshaun Watson. When Houston builds a leads against an overmatched Browns team, Hogan will be dropping back plenty to pile up points against a suddenly vulnerable Texans defense minus sack artists J.J. Watt (leg) and Whitney Mercilus (chest).

Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN

With a live arm and great escapability and open-field running, Brissett has displayed a surprisingly good fantasy floor. Heading into another bye week, he's an ideal replacement option for anyone who owns Marcus Mariota (hamstring) and usually backs him up with Andy Dalton or Tyrod Taylor. Brissett plays against Mariota's Titans on Monday Night Football, so if the Tennessee star's availability is a game-time decision again this week, Mariota owners are not forced to play a different backup on Sunday. Moreover, Brissett's ceiling could resemble one of his two big weeks (a 300-plus yard throwing day with a running score or a three-score game versus Cleveland) considering the Titans are tied for the most passing scores allowed and rank 10th in yards given up through the air.

Josh McCown, NYJ vs. NE

The 73-year vet (I kid) is starting to settle in with his new team. In his last three outings McCown has averaged 222.3 yards and a score per game while completing a fantastic 75 percent of his throws. The thing is, he didn't attempt more than 31 passes in any of those contests. Facing Tom Brady and the Patriots offense coming off a bye week, and with both Bilal Powell (calf) and Matt Forte (toe) dinged up, that figures to change. New England has allowed all four quarterbacks they've faced to top 300 yards, and if McCown reaches 40 attempts for the first time all year, he may join that club.

Running Back

Marshawn Lynch, OAK vs. LAC

The Giants, in a game in which they had FOUR wide receivers leave with injury, blasted the Chargers for 152 yards and a score on the ground at 6.1 yards a clip. The "vaunted" duo of Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman gashed them for 126 yards on only 19 carries (6.6 YPC). A defense like this cannot tackle the man they call "Beast Mode." And sure as heck not in his own backyard in a must-win for Oakland.

Chris Thompson, WAS vs. SF

The 35 receptions the 49ers have allowed to running backs are the third most in the league, while the 163.6 scrimmage yards per game they've given up to the position rank as the seventh most. Coming off a bye week, the Redskins' leader in scrimmage yards (by a mile) will be piling them up again with Rob Kelley (ankle) likely sidelined and rookie Samaje Perine anything but efficient (3.1 YPC).

Mike Gillislee, NE at NYJ

Even Isaiah Crowell, who had previously cracked the 40-yard mark just once, produced 60 yards on the ground versus the Jets. A low-scoring affair helped him to see 16 carries, his second most of the season. For Gillislee, however, he likely does not have to worry about the Patriots offense struggling to put up points. A comfortable lead should equate to the most carries he's seen since Week 2 when he produced season highs of 18 attempts and 69 yards while hitting paydirt once.

Elijah McGuire, NYJ vs. NE

Every No. 1 running back to face the Patriots has tallied more than 60 scrimmage yards while each backfield has topped the century mark collectively. With McGuire the healthiest of the Jets' tailbacks, he's likely to be the de facto top option for Gang Green this weekend. Although his 39 touches are a small sample size, McGuire's efficiency (5.2 YPC, 11.0 per catch) suggests that he's up to the challenge of being the lead dog and a flex-worthy candidate.

Wide Receiver

Devin Funchess, CAR vs. PHI

This is a PSA for anyone who has been sleepwalking the last two weeks: Devin Funchess does not belong here. He no longer requires an "upgrade" after garnering at least eight targets in every game Carolina has played without Greg Olsen (three straight) while also notching three scores in the last two outings. He's here to make sure all are aware that he needs to be in the lineup. With Kelvin Benjamin opposite him he's going to consistently draw a lesser corner and fewer double teams, and in case anyone was unaware, he too is a towering target at 6-4, 225. Facing a Philly defense that's allowed a disgusting 763 yards to wide receivers the last three weeks, Funchess is a must-start despite a nagging knee ailment.

Terrelle Pryor, WAS vs. SF

It's time for a wide receiver to take over the receiving yards lead for the Redskins. And after getting the bye week to figure out why Chris Thompson and not Pryor holds that designation after four weeks, The 6-foot-4 physical specimen Washington signed away from the Browns is going to feed off his season-best 3/70/1 performance from Week 4 against the Chiefs. With the 49ers' overmatched secondary having allowed 684 yards to wide receivers and four 100-yard performances in the last three games alone, that shouldn't be too difficult.

J.J. Nelson, AZ vs. TB

Picking just one Cardinals wide receiver to start feels an awful lot like playing roulette, as four of them are averaging at least 6.2 targets per game. Fortunately, there's plenty of action to go around with Carson Palmer averaging five more attempts per game than the next closest quarterback, while ranking behind only Tom Brady in passing yards. So why Nelson over Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Jaron Brown? In a word: efficiency. Nelson is averaging the highest catch rate (65.4%) and YPT (10.7) of any receiver on the team, with the latter being by a wide margin. While all have upside against a Buccaneers defense allowing a ridiculous 228.0 yards per game to wide receivers (easily most in the league), Nelson has the highest floor.

Jermaine Kearse, NYJ vs. NE

In games in which Kearse was not smothered by the elite Jacksonville corners he's averaged a very respectable 9.2 YPT and caught 81.8 percent of his looks with three scores and a low outing of 42 yards in a game in which the Jets manhandled Miami and Josh McCown threw only 23 passes. Volume has yet to consistently be there for the Jets' most productive receiver, but when Tom Brady forces a backfield-depleted Jets offense to unleash upwards of 40 passes, Kearse will be in line for a busy day. Though he's not in the same company with the heady No. 1 receivers the Pats have faced thus far – Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans – it's still worth noting that top wideouts to face New England have averaged 90.2 yards per contest.

Tight End

A.J. Derby, DEN vs. NYG

Death, taxes, tight ends against the Giants. The streak continues. Little Blue has allowed at least 40 yards and a score to a tight end in every game, with six total tight ends having achieved that feat in five contests. Derby is coming off a career performance (4/75/1) and a bye week, so he'll be rested and ready to take advantage of the most exploitable defensive weakness in football.

Tyler Higbee, LAR at JAC

Built like a Travis Kelce clone, Higbee could be sneaking up on the fantasy community en route to similar levels of stardom to the Chiefs' best receiving weapon. Hitting Kelce level is likely, if ever, more a development for Year 3, but the sophomore tight end is on the rise at the right time. His 14 targets over the last two weeks are tied for second on the team, while his 145 yards in that span are easily first. With a 6-foot-6, 257-pound frame that can blaze the 40 in the 4.6 range, Higbee is a quarterback's and play caller's best friend. In a Sean McVay offense that loves to feature the tight end (see Reed, Jordan from McVay's Washington days), and against a Jaguars defense that eliminates throws to the perimeter, Higbee should keep building off his 10.4 YPT the last two weeks.

Zach Miller, CHI at BAL

If there was a key takeaway for fantasy purposes from rookie Mitchell Trubisky's pro debut it was that he doesn't have a reliable, go-to wide receiver. Which, of course, is why Miller is an intriguing option this week and going forward. Miller's seven targets, including an end zone grab for Trubisky's only scoring strike, led the Bears. Now he gets to play the security blanket, easy-read role for the rookie when he faces one of the most frenetic and confusing defenses in football, one that coincidentally has allowed the third most TDs to tight ends (four).

David Njoku, CLE at HOU

The announcement that Kevin Hogan is stealing DeShone Kizer's starting spot is good news to Njoku owners. The supremely athletic rookie tight end has caught two of his three touchdowns – both from more than 20 yards out – from Hogan, who is not afraid to test the crazy catch radius of the 6-foot-4 specimen with 4.64-speed, a 37.5-inch vertical and an 82-inch wingspan. The Texans have faced some of the best at the position in recent weeks, but that still does not forgive them for giving up over 300 yards to tight ends in their last three games. Against a depleted Houston defense that might struggle to cause their usual backfield havoc, don't be surprised when Hogan is taking shots to Njoku all day.

George Kittle, SF at WAS

No defense has allowed more yards per game to tight ends than the Redskins, who have surrendered 90.3 per contest. Kittle is Kyle Shanahan's moveable chess piece whose 4.5-speed is often too much for linebackers and safeties to handle. Coming off a 7/83/1 line that included the game-tying touchdown on 4th-and-goal in the final seconds of regulation (indicating heavy coach and quarterback trust), Kittle is set up to stay hot versus a Washington defense that may be without top linebacker Zach Brown (hamstring).

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at KC

It shouldn't have to be said, but just in case someone drafted Roethlisberger and any of Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Andrew Luck or really any other QB not playing this week, here's the reminder that rolling out the washed up statue that used to be a Hall of Fame talent in Arrowhead of all places is absolutely begging to lose this week. With all his weapons, Big Ben may have a higher floor than some, but his struggles on the road are well documented, he himself is questioning whether or not "he has it any more" and Arrowhead just so happens to be one of the most difficult stadiums to play in for the opposition. There could be garbage points here, but then again, there should have been plenty against Jacksonville too.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. LAC

This downgrade is of course predicated on Carr returning this week after a one-week absence with a back fracture. Should he suit up, he should do so on the fantasy bench. The Chargers are not an elite pass defense, but the problem they present to opposing quarterbacks from a fantasy perspective – aside from the wicked pass rush duo of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa – is very simple. There's no room for volume against them. Only the Texans and Raiders have had fewer passes attempted per game against them, and those two defenses have allowed roughly 20 more yards per game through the air. The Chargers are dead last in stopping the run and have not held a double-digit lead for a single second this season, so expect plenty of Marshawn Lynch and scatback Jalen Richard while Oakland tries to limit Carr's exposure to big hits from Ingram and Bosa.

Matt Ryan, ATL vs. MIA

It's hard to imagine that with the bye week there will be a bench option with a higher floor than Ryan, but it's hard to get too excited about him in this spot. The Dolphins have had the third fewest total passes attempted against them and given up only five scores through the air in four games, and it's no surprise when considering the state of Miami's offense. Jay Cutler and Co. have generated only three offensive touchdowns and have only led by double digits for roughly six minutes of game action. Ryan, who has his top two wideouts at less than full strength (if he even has Mohamed Sanu at all), can rely on his stud backfield and speedy defense to put this game to bed early. The results should be fairly similar to his averages thus far: 262.5 yards, 1.25 TD's, 1.25 INT's. A fine floor, sure, but without any volume there's little room for upside.

RB

Todd Gurley, LAR at JAC

The Seahawks established the model for slowing down the explosive Rams offense, and it all started with being more physical up front and gang tackling Gurley. It's possible, too, that Los Angeles coach Sean McVay felt concerned about feeding Gurley as heavily as they had through four games given the tight nature of the divisional contest and the fact that a fumble going into the end zone on the Rams' first drive was Gurley's fifth in as many games. No matter how productive a tailback may be, a fumble per game average is the quickest way to a reduced workload. The Jaguars defense has allowed the second most rushing yards to opposing runners, but that number was boosted by two Jets' home runs of 75 and 69 yards. Jacksonville absolutely has the personnel to stone runners, however, with a loaded front seven and the hard-hitting Barry Church at safety, and they just proved it by holding Le'Veon Bell to 3.7 yards per touch, despite the All-Pro registering a whopping 10 catches. Coincidentally, the six fumbles Jacksonville has forced this year are fifth most in the league.

Lamar Miller, HOU vs. CLE

With at least 63 scrimmage yards in every contest, Miller has proven to be the same high-floor, steady producer he was last year, his first in Houston. Cleveland will be a stiff test, however, with their active and beefy front seven that has quietly allowed just 2.9 YPC to opposing tailbacks. If Deshaun Watson's arm pushes the Texans to an early lead but Miller struggles to get much going on the ground, D'Onta Foreman may be called upon more than usual to provide a change of pace and keep Miller from getting battered.

Duke Johnson, CLE at HOU

After registering at least 60 scrimmage yards and a score in three straight, Johnson has demanded he be in starting lineups. His owners, however, should know when to fold 'em rather than push all their chips to the middle this week. With just 56 of his 247 yards in this hot streak coming on the ground, Johnson's production, as expected, is dependent on what he does as a receiver. Unfortunately for his owners, a Texans back seven that flies to the football and snuffs out screens before they can develop has allowed the NFL's fewest receiving yards to running backs (107 at 5.4 yards per catch). And it's not like they've played a bunch of slugs. They held Giovani Bernard, Joe Mixon, James White, Dion Lewis and Kareem Hunt to a meager 53 combined receiving yards on 10 catches.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper, OAK vs. LAC

This is a self-inflicted downgrade. Nothing in particular about the Chargers defense suggests a wideout is unlikely to produce versus them. But the fact is, at his current rate of play, nothing about Cooper suggests he can produce against anybody. Michael Crabtree has more than doubled him up on yards this year despite missing a game. Cooper has generated a deplorable 23 yards over his last 15 targets in THREE games, with none topping even 10 yards. Suffering from a serious case of stone hands, he's caught an anemic 39.3 percent of targets on the season and is another dreadful performance away from being entirely droppable in all leagues.

Mike Evans, TB at AZ

Patrick Peterson simply does not let top outside receivers do what they're supposed to do. So far he's limited Marvin Jones, T.Y. Hilton, Dez Bryant, Pierre Garcon and Alshon Jeffery to a combined 165 yards, with none of them topping 50. Meanwhile, Evans has struggled some versus other quality corners, having been held to a combined 116 yards and no scores by Xavier Rhodes and Malcolm Butler. With him averaging just 7.1 YPT, as hard as it is to sit Evans, it might be the right move if there are higher floor options available.

Davante Adams, GB at MIN

Adams' game-winner in the closing seconds versus Dallas completed a heartwarming story given the scary hit he suffered the week prior, but his best performance of the season may quickly be followed up with his worst. Xavier Rhodes has stymied all of the top receivers he's faced, with the physically overwhelming Mike Evans' seven grabs for 67 yards being the best performance against him thus far. And the slate has not been easy otherwise, as Rhodes has also limited Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. Jordy Nelson will certainly draw attention, but given how often he's playing out of the slot these days, Larry Fitzgerald-style, Rhodes probably won't be checking him much. Instead, he'll likely be glued to Green Bay's new top outside weapon.

Tight End

Evan Engram, NYG at DEN

In theory, Engram could be a top-10 tight end from here on out with the Giants decimated at wide receiver. After all, Engram is basically a jumbo wideout who can run most routes from outside the numbers as well as dominate the middle of the field. The problem with this week, however, is that although he may get a boost in targets, he's also going to get a huge boost in defensive attention. So the question becomes, who really wants to bet on the rookie "tight end" to best the likes of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris in one-on-one coverage?