Exploiting the Matchups: Hibernation Time for Bears' Howard

In the spirit of giving thanks and on the eve of a holiday that celebrates the wonders of family, food and football, I'm going to keep things short and sweet. You can give thanks for a reprieve from my usual rambling intros.

I wrote those exact words last year. And the year before that.

So my only advice this week is to go back to the well. Re-use. If it worked before, stick with it. Be thankful for your best players and play them. Words, fantasy stars, beers. All these wonderful things can be repeated. And I can't think of a better weekend for them to be. Set those lineups, enjoy some food and be thankful for the glorious gift of football. Since I can't be thankful for my Packers as a whole, I'll be grateful that Davante Adams is still a bright spot on nearly all my fantasy teams, and hopefully (spoiler alert!) going to continue racking up numbers this week despite a tough road test.

I wrote almost those exact words last year too. The re-use advice, however, applies more to the beers this year, since unfortunately so many stars are injured. Nevertheless, regardless of someone's standing as a proven "star," if he's produced in even three of his last five games don't be afraid to roll with him.

As always, this is not intended as a traditional start/sit piece. Upgrades are guys you wouldn't roll out every week while downgrades are generally lineup mainstays for whom you may want to consider an alternative based on elements of their opponent/situation. With that out of the way, let's get to it.

I write those exact words every week. But this week I'm more thankful that I get to do so. Enjoy the holiday everyone!

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Andy Dalton, CIN vs. CLE

Calling all Aaron Rodgers owners! If you can still get your hands on Dalton, do it and do it now. Now that the bye weeks are over, if your regular starter was Rodgers or is an unsteady option, Dalton is your guy. Excluding a miserable two games to open the season, he's produced at least 328 yards or multiple scores in every game in which he did not face the smothering Jaguars defense. And that tally includes a three-score effort at Denver last week. He now draws a Browns defense that has allowed multiple scores to opposing quarterbacks in all but two games. Dalton burnt them for an easy four touchdowns on only 30 attempts in the first meeting between these teams.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB at ATL
Fitzpatrick has made two relief appearances and two starts, and regardless of how long he's been on the field, he's thrown a touchdown in each of his four games with two efforts of at least 275 yards and multiple scores. With weapons like Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and the tight end duo of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, the scrappy journeyman who is just two years removed from a 31-touchdown season will always be a threat to produce. When the game script goes south on the Bucs in a visit to the suddenly hot Falcons, Fitzpatrick will need to reach into his bag of tricks to make some plays. Considering that Atlanta has allowed three of the last five QBs they've faced to throw for at least 249 yards and two TDs, here's betting he can do just that.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. DEN

Carr stunk it up (237 yards, 4.8 YPA, one garbage-time score) against a Patriots defense that ranks last in passing yards allowed to QBs, but now he's going to bounce back against the Broncos. Wait. What the? How's that? Yes, it's a tad confusing. Denver's typically stingy secondary has limited opposing signal callers to the third fewest yards, but they've forgotten how to defend the red zone, as they're tied with Houston for the most passing scores allowed (22) and have given up a generous 10 in the last three games, including three to Andy Dalton last week. And for what it's worth, before Denver broke Carr's back in their last meeting (literally), the up-and-down passer had averaged a shade under 8.0 YPA with a score through two-thirds of the action.

Joe Flacco, BAL vs. HOU

Flacco is averaging less than a touchdown per game and has only two multi-score efforts this season (one fewer than he has scoreless outings). That all goes out the window this week, given that Houston has allowed 24 total scores to quarterbacks to lead the league in that inglorious category. Heck, they even gave up three touchdown passes to Blaine Gabbert last week – a mark the seven-year pro had not accomplished in 43 previous career appearances. Flacco has a defense that can set him up with short fields and a healthy contingent of Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace and Danny Woodhead to help him rack up some yards. Owners in two-quarterback and superflex leagues could do much worse.

Running Back

Alfred Morris, DAL vs. LAC

Morris has established himself as the clear No. 1 runner in Ezekiel Elliott's absence, ripping off three runs of at least 20 yards while averaging 5.1 YPC over the past two games. A decisive runner with the vision to see lanes develop and the burst to get to the second level, Morris will make the Cowboys thankful for having such a capable backup in a game they sorely need to win. And considering the way Morris churned out 91 yards on 17 carries against the Eagles' top-ranked run defense, he looks like a sure bet to be fed plenty versus a Chargers group that's allowed the most rushing yards in the league (138.9 per game) and just relented another 131 and a score to Buffalo running backs on only 16 carries.

Kareem Hunt, KC vs. BUF

Since he registered his last game with over 100 yards rushing in Week 5, the rookie dynamo has been, well, far less dynamic. In fact, over his last five appearances Hunt has produced 433 scrimmage yards and precisely zero touchdowns (he has not found paydirt since Week 3). For comparison's sake, Orleans Darkwa has tallied 435 yards and one score during that same stretch. Darkwa has consistently been a flex option but certainly not a must-start. So, although Hunt's scintillating start to his career earned him a long leash, his owners need to legitimately give thought to benching him moving forward. This week, however, a visit from the Bills makes him a no-brainer and figures to remind his owners of his potential. After all, Buffalo has allowed six different tailbacks to tally an eye-popping nine touchdowns in their last three games. That means for at least one week you can resume confidently, rolling him out in daily lineups as well as your season-long leagues.

Latavius Murray, Jerick McKinnon, MIN at DET

The Lions simply cannot stop running backs lately. They've allowed at least 80 yards and a score to opposing backfields in five straight and just gave up a combined 385 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns to the Browns and Bears tailbacks, with Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson each averaging at least 4.9 YPC. Murray has racked up four touchdowns in his last four outings, and McKinnon has just as many scores in the six contests since the Vikings lost rookie Dalvin Cook to an ACL injury in their last meeting with Detroit. Since taking over for their fallen teammate, this backfield duo has been the most productive pairing in the league north of New Orleans, and they will each remain thankful for double-digit touches on Turkey Day against a Lions defense that'll make their week gravy.

J.D. McKissic, SEA at SF

McKissic has won (at least temporarily) the Seattle backfield's battle of attrition/suck. With Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy seemingly incapable of running for more than 2.0 yards per carry and every other Seahawks running back having been hurt (the semi-promising Mike Davis is the latest victim), McKissic has managed to touch the ball more than any other Seattle offensive player not named Russell Wilson the last two weeks. McKissic turned those 21 touches into 99 scrimmage yards while averaging nearly 5.0 YPC on 12 rushing attempts. Coming off a season-high 50 snaps, the fleet-footed tailback will be licking his chops at the chance to face a 49ers defense that's allowed nearly 1,800 scrimmage yards to opposing running backs, including a league-high 617 receiving yards and four receiving TDs.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams, GB at PIT

Only six teams have allowed fewer yards to wide receivers than the Steelers have, but one of those teams is the Ravens, who Adams just schooled for 126 yards (12.6 YPT) on eight grabs. And that effort followed up an impressive outing with 90 yards and a score at Soldier Field, highlighted by a back-shoulder touchdown snag and a 42-yard one-handed catch. While the rest of the receiving options have suffered in Aaron Rodgers' absence, Adams has managed to rise above Brett Hundley's often below-replacement-level play. Considering the typically stingy Steelers secondary has allowed three touchdowns to wideouts of at least 60 yards in their last two outings, it seems quite possible Adams, the Packers' best deep threat, will continue rising above.

Demaryius Thomas, DEN at OAK

Thomas has just one 100-yard game and three touchdowns in 10 appearances. But somehow, confusingly, his stock actually took a sharp turn up with Brock Osweiler under center. In the three games this duo played together Thomas caught exactly five passes and scored in each. The yards (just under 60 per game average) have not been there yet, but the Raiders' 27th ranked pass defense can fix that. And if you're worried about the switch from Osweiler to Paxton Lynch, you shouldn't be. Thomas' play with Osweiler proved that he can thrive despite a wild-armed, no-touch passer, and his owners should also take comfort in the fact that Lynch's only touchdown pass in two starts last year landed in Thomas' strong mitts.

Mohamed Sanu, ATL vs. TB

Consummate underneath chain mover Jarvis Landry has topped a measly 8.8 yards per catch just twice all year, and the tackling-allergic Buccaneers back seven just let him post 15.8 en route to 95 yards and a score. Landry has averaged that many yards per catch or better only six other times in 59 career games (counting playoffs). Sanu, a similar possession target in a bigger body, has at least 65 yards or a touchdown in six of his last eight appearances and will have no trouble keeping up his steady play against a Tampa D that's allowed the most receptions and yards to wide receivers.

Sammy Watkins, LAR vs. NO

Robert Woods and his team-leading 70 targets (including 11 against the Vikings) will be out for the foreseeable future with a shoulder injury. That means that just like his days in Buffalo when he was the unquestioned No. 1 target, Watkins will step into a featured role. With the Saints' star cover man Marshon Lattimore fighting an ankle injury, the window is open for Watkins to explode for the first time since he turned six grabs into 102 yards and two scores in Week 3. Given the magnitude of the matchup, Lattimore will do everything in his power to play, but considering that he could not return to the Washington game when the Saints were losing the entire second half, the injury seems significant enough to at least limit him or decrease his snap count.

Corey Coleman, CLE at CIN

If Coleman can manage 80 yards against the Jaguars elite secondary in just his second full game playing with DeShone Kizer, chances are he can repeat such a feat against an also-talented Bengals secondary. After all, Coleman became just the third wide receiver all year to tally better than 60 yards against Jacksonville, and his effort was the most by any wideout not named Antonio Brown to square off with Jalen Ramsey and Co. With the Browns' receiving corps outside of Coleman resembling a CFL roster, it's at least a good bet the former first-round draft pick sees double-digit targets again.

Kenny Stills, MIA at NE
Stills had at least 65 yards or a touchdown in five of his last six games, with four catches in each of those, four total TDs, two 20-point games in standard scoring and 39 combined targets in those five outings. He's been especially effective working with Matt Moore, catching three second-half touchdowns between his two huge performances when Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler. This time Cutler was sidelined by a concussion, and as of late Wednesday night he's yet to be cleared. Regardless of who Stills is catching balls from, however, he's a strong flex option versus a Patriots defense that, despite their recently improved play, has still allowed the second most yards and ninth most touchdowns to wide receivers.

Tight End

Jared Cook, OAK vs. DEN

Cook managed only 46 yards on eight targets in a Week 4 loss to Denver, but since that time the Broncos have been a tight end's best friend. During the six-game losing streak they've been on since their last meeting with Oakland, the Broncos have given up at least 73 yards or a touchdown to a tight end in every game, with the No. 1 tight ends they've faced in that stretch compiling a combined 415 yards and four touchdowns. All told, Denver has given up the second most yards in the league to the position. Meanwhile, Cook has concurrently stepped up his play while Denver has struggled against the position. He's twice reached triple-digit yardage in his last four outings and leads the Raiders in receiving yards on the season.

Coby Fleener, NO at LAR

Fleener has largely been a ghost in the Saints' offense during their eight-game winning streak, with just 109 yards in the first seven prior to last week's surprise 91-yard effort in the wild comeback victory over Washington. His involvement in losing efforts, however, was a very different story. He scored in both of their losses to start the year and was a huge factor when Drew Brees picked apart the Redskins in the fourth quarter of Sunday's comeback win. So, the question to ask oneself is simple: do you think the Rams can get a second-half lead? With star cornerback Marshon Lattimore nursing an ankle injury, Los Angeles may be able to take advantage of a susceptible defense and put up enough points to warrant Fleener running downfield instead of sitting on the sideline yawning. Here's betting that Todd Gurley and Jared Goff can at least make Fleener run some extra routes this week.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. MIN

With at least 249 yards in five straight and multiple scores in five of his last six, Stafford has made a ton of plays with his usual gunslinger moxie since the last time he clashed with the NFC North leading Vikings. That battle was unique in that it was Stafford's worst fantasy day of the season – just 209 yards and no touchdowns – while also being the last time Minnesota lost. Of course, it's no coincidence that Stafford failed to find the end zone in that meeting, considering the loaded Vikings defense is one of only four that's held opposing QBs to fewer than 10 passing scores on the season. In fact, Minnesota's D has managed to limit Stafford in their past three showdowns dating back to last year. Although Detroit won each of those contests, Stafford didn't top 232 yards in any of them and averaged only a score per game.

Alex Smith, KC vs. BUF

Smith is having a career year statistically, but for fantasy purposes he's become Mr. 50/50. In half his games he has one or fewer passing scores. His arm has also produced 251 yards or fewer half of the time. Last week he bottomed out versus a Giants team that looked like the dead horse the league kept beating, failing to hit 250 yards or score even once – the first time he's done both in a game yet – while also tossing multiple interceptions for the first time. It's fair to expect a bounce back against a Bills team that has allowed 101 points in their last two "efforts," but it should not be overlooked that of those 101 points, only 12 came via touchdown passes. In fact, the Buffalo defense is one of only four that has yet to allow double-digit passing scores, and it's tie for seventh with 11 interceptions. With only Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill doing anything in the passing game, Buffalo is equipped to limit KC's aerial attack.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. LAC

In two games without Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith, the Cowboys offense has been arguably the worst in football. Prescott has taken 12 sacks in that timeframe and turned it over six times while leading just one touchdown drive. With a banged up and aging Dez Bryant incapable of producing a big play, there simply are too few receiving weapons for Prescott to thrive without the threat of Elliott in the backfield and superb protection of Smith. While he may get Smith back for this Thanksgiving affair, it won't necessarily matter. The bookend tandem of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram represent the league's top pass rushing duo, one that has spearheaded a defense ranking third in sacks (30) and tied for fourth in interceptions (12). With or without Smith, Prescott is going to continue struggling against a defense that held both Carson Wentz and Tom Brady to one touchdown apiece while the pair of MVP frontrunners combined to average only 7.4 YPA on 78 throws.

Running Back

Jordan Howard, CHI at PHI

The Eagles have given up 200 fewer rushing yards to opposing tailbacks than the second-stingiest run defense. They're also tied for the fewest ground scores allowed to running backs (three). Although Howard is coming off his third effort with at least 125 yards rushing, he's poised to re-visit a floor he established just a week prior when he managed only 54 yards against a subpar Packers defense. In a Bears offense that lacks the weapons to provide him many scoring opportunities, Howard is set to start a new streak against Philadelphia of failing to find the end zone (last week ended a five-game scoreless stretch).

Ameer Abdullah, DET vs. MIN

A three-game scoring streak – the best of Abdullah's career – is poised to end on Thanksgiving. Although his recent usage at the goal line is highly encouraging, his chances at punching in a fourth straight against the stout Minnesota front seven feels overly optimistic even though Abdullah's best game of the season (119 scrimmage yards) and first touchdown came against Minnesota. After all, no defense has allowed fewer than the four touchdowns the Vikings have given up to tailbacks, and since they were hit hard by Abdullah in their first meeting, they have not let a single tailback top 76 yards rushing. In total, they've limited opposing backfields to 69.5 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry in that span, including holding Todd Gurley to just 37 yards last week on 15 carries (2.5 YPC).

Marshawn Lynch, OAK vs. DEN

In his last four full games, Lynch has at least 63 yards or a touchdown in each, with three scores in that stretch while averaging 4.6 YPC and looking much more like the Beast Mode of old. The problem is, however, that he's simply not getting the workloads he used to. In those four contests he tallied just 50 total carries with no more than 14 in any one game. In fact, he has not topped that number of rush attempts since Week 1 when he saw 18 and produced a season-high 92 scrimmage yards. Against a Denver defense that – outside of losses to the Eagles and Giants – has completely smothered the run (3.3 YPC allowed to tailbacks), Lynch simply offers very little upside. After all, the Broncos have allowed more touchdowns receiving (five) than rushing (four) to tailbacks this year, and it's not exactly like Lynch is going to be confused with Danny Woodhead anytime soon.

Wide Receiver

Larry Fitzgerald, AZ vs. JAC

Fitzgerald has racked up at least nine grabs in three of the last five games, but when Jacksonville rolls into town this weekend that fantasy train will come to a halt. It's just awfully hard to imagine the under-the-radar Blaine Gabbert revenge narrative playing out positively for any Cardinals skill players. Jacksonville has given up fewer than 10 points in six games and has not given up a touchdown to a wide receiver since Week 1 when it took DeAndre Hopkins 16 targets to get 55 yards and one score. At a time of the year when a high floor is as important as a high ceiling, Fitzgerald doesn't fit the bill in this one.

Robby Anderson, NYJ vs. CAR

In their last six games the Panthers have fared pretty well against some darn good receivers that stand 6-foot-2 or taller. The likes of Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery, Marvin Jones and DeVante Parker combined for 49 targets and a pedestrian 7.5 YPT with only the Falcons' star topping 71 yards. None of them scored. So, although the 6-foot-3 Anderson has clearly established himself as the Jets' No. 1 wideout while posting a touchdown in four straight outings, the lanky speedster is likely to be held in check by easily the toughest defense he's faced since tallying 59 yards against Jacksonville in Week 4.

Marvin Jones, DET vs. MIN

In four of his last five games Jones has compiled 23 grabs off a whopping 43 targets for 416 yards and four touchdowns. Sandwiched in his torrid stretch was a mysteriously silent meeting with the Browns. Beyond that anomaly against Cleveland, the last time Jones either caught fewer than six passes or failed to find the end zone came way back in Week 4 when the Lions last squared off with the Vikings. Xavier Rhodes held Jones to two grabs and 42 yards that day, and during the Vikings' six-game win streak that has transpired since, no receiver has produced better than 60 yards or found the end zone against Rhodes. So, when Stafford slings it, count on him looking at Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay and TJ Jones.

Tight End

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ vs. CAR

Seferian-Jenkins posted a season-best 67 yards in a loss prior to the Jets' bye week, but he's unlikely to build off that effort against the Panthers. Carolina, led by one of the league's best linebacking corps, has limited tight ends to fewer yards than any defense. And it's not like ASJ is a legitimate threat to produce yards anyways, given that he has just 288 on 50 targets. Moreover, with his three-game touchdown streak having ended more than a month ago, his floor is looking awfully subterranean this Sunday.