Dynasty Watch: Top 25 Rookie Rankings

This is my initial top-25 dynasty ranking for the 2020 rookie class. These rankings will be updated in subsequent articles in the next couple months, and the combine especially will force me to shake things up. Also, the underclassmen entrants aren't finalized for another week. This is my best guess with the incomplete information we have in the meantime.
 

1. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson* (5-foot-10, 210 pounds)

Needed just 503 carries to total 3,960 yards (7.9 YPC) and 55 touchdowns in 42 games. Almost certainly possesses speed in the low 4.4s at worst. Demonstrated plus pass-catching upside with 32 catches for 396 yards and four touchdowns on 38 targets in 2019. Future All-Pro as far as I can tell.

Projected round: 1

2. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin* (5-foot-11, 221 pounds)

Ran for 6,174 yards (6.7 YPC) and 50 touchdowns in 41 games. Likely to run a sub-4.5 40 at over 220 pounds, and maybe even as low as 4.40 or so. Unlike Etienne, there are unfortunately legitimate concerns about Taylor's pass-catching ability. Still, he's an All-Pro talent who compares trait-wise to Jamal Lewis.

Projected round: 1

3. J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State* (5-foot-10, 217 pounds)

Ran for 4,459 yards (6.2 YPC) and 38 touchdowns in 42 games. Convincing pass-catching production, turning 90 career targets into 71 receptions for 645 yards and five touchdowns (78.9 percent catch rate, 7.2 YPT). Probably not the kind of athlete that Etienne and Taylor might be, but Dobbins' skill set seems well beyond questioning.

Projected round: 2

4. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma* (6-foot-2, 189 pounds)

Immensely productive with a convincing playmaker skill set, Lamb projects as a high-upside WR1 prospect in the NFL. In 40 career games Lamb drew 251 targets, catching 173 for 3,292 yards and 32 touchdowns (68.9 percent catch rate, 13.1 YPT). He looks like a bigger, faster Brandon Lloyd to me.

Projected round: 1

5. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama* (6-foot-1, 192 pounds)

A blur with fast feet and production beyond doubt, Jeudy is probably no worse than a 50-50 bet to go ahead of Lamb. Jeudy drew 234 targets in 36 games, catching 159 for 2,742 yards and 26 touchdowns (68.0 percent catch rate, 11.7 YPT).

Projected round: 1

6. D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia* (5-foot-9, 215 pounds)

I would probably rank Swift third overall if I weren't worried about his durability. A shoulder issue led his college career to conclude with a whimper, but when on the field Swift's production and tape are convincing. He turned 440 carries into 2,885 yards (6.6 YPC) and 20 touchdowns in 43 games, adding 73 receptions for 666 yards and five touchdowns on 96 targets (76.0 percent catch rate, 6.9 YPT). Swift never averaged more than 14 carries per game in a college season and will face questions over what sort of NFL workload he could handle.

Projected round: 1-3

7. Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU* (5-foot-11, 195 pounds)

I think you'll see Reagor underrated generally, but he has his superfans and I'm one of them. Reagor is a uniquely explosive athlete, Bruce Feldman reported that Reagor boasts a 4.29-second 40 on a densely developed frame. Brutal quarterback play tanked his numbers a bit at TCU, but I think Reagor will generate hype with his combine presence and push for the first round.

Projected round: 1-2

8. Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama* (6-foot, 190 pounds)

Ruggs is a tough evaluation for me. He's incredibly fast, more likely to run a 4.20 than a 4.40, and his per-target production was shriekingly high at Alabama. On the other hand, he never drew consistent usage at Alabama and always played second fiddle at best behind Jerry Jeudy, but also DeVonta Smith. The question is whether Ruggs' modest target share was due to offensive design or due to simply not getting open as much as the other two. This is something I held against Terry McClaurin too much last year, and in hindsight it's safe to say that his meager target volume was simply due to Ohio State's excessive riches on offense. I'll need more time to go into his tape before I can offer any sort of verdict, but in the meantime there might be a valid concern that this is another James Jett case. I'm trying to err toward optimism, though.

Projected round: 1

9. Devin Duvernay, WR, Texas (5-foot-11, 210 pounds)

A burner who seemingly underachieved in his first few years at Texas, Duvernay went nuts in 2019, largely because Texas moved him to the slot position previously played by Lil'Jordan Humphrey. He was almost impossibly efficient in the new role, catching 106 of 130 targets for 1,386 yards and nine touchdowns (81.5 percent catch rate, 10.7 YPT). Even on a relatively dense frame, Duvernay should run something like a 4.35-second 40.

Projected round: 1-2

10. Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson* (6-foot-4, 215 pounds)

Higgins is a guy who could surge up the board with a strong combine showing, but I can't tell from his tape what would be a reasonable expectation for his athletic testing. He looks plenty athletic, but it's less obvious whether he's a true standout in that regard. The skill set is convincing, in any case, and his uniquely big frame gives him an edge for teams looking to improve their red-zone presence.

Projected round :1-3

11. Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado* (6-foot-2, 220 pounds)

Shenault was incredibly productive as a true sophomore in 2018, catching 86 of 110 targets for 1,011 yards and six touchdowns (78.2 percent catch rate, 9.2 YPT) in only nine games. His production fell off drastically in 2019, seeing just 82 targets in 11 games and catching 56 for 764 yards and four touchdowns (68.3 percent catch rate, 9.3 YPT), but that's still strong production. He also ran for 276 yards and seven touchdowns over the last two years. I'll move Shenault way up in these rankings if he tests well at the combine, and he's absolutely a candidate to go in the first round, but in the meantime I don't see the obvious standout athleticism to place him higher in a really strong class. There are also durability concerns after missing time each of the last two years. His NFL application might resemble that of Deebo Samuel.

Projected round: 1-3

12. K.J. Hamler, WR, Penn State* (5-foot-9, 176 pounds)

Hamler is one of the burners of this class, not quite as fast as Ruggs (who is?) but likely matching strides with the likes of Jeudy, Duvernay, and Reagor. His frame and athletic traits resemble those of T.Y. Hilton, but I couldn't tell from tape whether Hamler is as skilled on short routes as Hilton was out of FIU. His ability to kill after the catch is well established, though.

Projected round: 1-3

13. Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina (6-foot-3, 215 pounds)

Edwards is an interesting case because there's not much excitement around him in the mainstream, but he basically matched the productivity of Deebo Samuel in 2018 and was uniquely productive as a four-year starter at South Carolina. While there's no obvious star potential here, Edwards could make a push for the first round if he tests well enough at the combine.

Projected round: 2-3

14. Zack Moss, RB, Utah (5-foot-10, 220 pounds)

I feel sick listing Moss this low, but this is a really strong class. He could still push for the top of the rankings depending on how his athletic workouts and medicals go. He overcame a knee issue from this spring and went nuts in his final season with Utah, running for 1,416 yards (6.0 YPC) and 15 touchdowns while posting highly encouraging pass-catching production (28 catches for 388 yards and two touchdowns on 31 targets). On tape, Moss shows truly rare anchor talent, especially with regard to balance. His speed might be modest, but the functional athleticism is quite clear.

Projected round: 2-3

15. Cam Akers, RB, Florida State* (5-foot-11, 212 pounds)

The top running back recruit of his class, Akers didn't quite live up to the hype but still showed enough to qualify as a Day 2 prospect in the NFL draft. Early on it looked like he might go the way of Lorenzo Booker, another No. 1 running back recruit at Florida State, but Akers withstood brutally difficult playing conditions and made a good NFL case despite a horrible offensive line.

Projected round: 2-4

16. Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU* (6-foot-3, 192 pounds)

Teammate J'Marr Chase is probably the bigger name, but Jefferson is convincing in his own right, and the only of the two currently draft eligible. Jefferson was impossibly productive in 2019, turning 122 targets into 102 catches for 1,434 yards and 18 touchdowns (83.6 percent catch rate, 11.8 YPT), and he was strong as a true sophomore in 2018 as well, catching 54 passes for 875 yards and six touchdowns on 93 targets (58.1 percent catch rate, 9.4 YPT). His athletic testing could prove important, as he's rather skinny at his listed height weight. Weighing in over 200 pounds would be a way for him to push higher in the rankings.

Projected round: 2-3

17. Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota (6-foot-2, 205 pounds)

The Senior Bowl, run by a clown car as it is, apparently didn't extend an invitation to Johnson. Ridiculous, borderline unforgivable negligence on their part. Johnson can play, even though he didn't play receiver until he got to Minnesota. The guy caught 86 of 121 targets this year for 1,318 yards and 13 touchdowns, that's a 71.7 percent catch rate at 10.9 YPT in an offense that completed 65.6 percent of its passes at 10.2 yards per attempt. To me, Johnson looks something like a faster Tyler Boyd.

Projected round: 2-3

18. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State (6-foot-1, 206 pounds)

Aiyuk only played two years at Arizona State as a JUCO transfer, but he was impressive in his brief stay. He caught 98 of his 152 targets at Arizona State, producing 1,666 yards and 11 touchdowns (64.5 percent catch rate, 11.0 YPT). Aiyuk's explosiveness is made more convincing yet by his production as a returner, where he averaged 31.9 yards per kick return and 16.1 yards per punt return in 2019.

Projected round :2-3

19. Lynn Bowden, WR, Kentucky* (6-foot-1, 199 pounds)

Forced to play quarterback much of this year, it's almost impossible to avoid the Randall Cobb comparisons for Bowden. Bowden was a worse passer than Cobb but an even better runner, eclipsing 200 rushing yards in his final two games with Kentucky and finishing 2019 with 1,468 yards on 185 carries (7.9 YPC). His exact fit and skill set development are up to some question, but Bowden is a menace with the football.

Projected round: 2-4

20. AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College* (6-foot, 250 pounds)

Dillon is an insanely well-built athlete, pushing 250 pounds but boasting rare speed, quickness, and balance for a player that size. Dillon would be a compelling athlete even by 220-pound standards. Dillon carried the Boston College offense the past three years, running for 4,382 yards (5.2 YPC) and 38 touchdowns in 35 games. Unfortunately, his pass-catching ability is at best untested, as he caught just 21 passes on 31 targets in three years.

Projected round: 2-4

21. Joe Burrow, QB, LSU (6-foot-4, 216 pounds)

Burrow seems awfully good, his 2019 production quite easily the best I've ever seen. To complete 77.6 percent of your passes at 10.9 YPA just doesn't make sense. It shouldn't be possible. It's worth noting that Burrow can also make an impact as a runner, so he could be a top-five fantasy quarterback in due time, assuming the Bengals don't break him. I wouldn't argue against ranking him higher than this – I'm just high on the runners and wideouts in this class.

Projected round: 1

22. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama* (6-foot-2, 230 pounds)

Harris is an uncommonly smooth and springy athlete for a running back of his build, and he was effective as a runner throughout his Alabama career, posting 2,377 yards (6.1 YPC) and 20 touchdowns. He notably played ahead of Josh Jacobs, who of course has done quite well for the Raiders so far. Harris' final weigh in and workout metrics will help me determine how high I am on him, but for now I'm a little concerned that he might have a less than ideal density-adjusted speed grade. Apologies in advance if he's actually a terror on the track, it's hard to tell from tape.

Projected round: 3-4

23. Quintez Cephus, WR, Wisconsin* (6-foot-1, 207 pounds)

Carries an asterisk for potential character reasons, but it's also possible that NFL teams will be completely comfortable with him given the one-off nature of his troubles and the dubious circumstances around them. Cephus doesn't jump out as an obviously elite athlete, but his production in 2017 and 2019 was spectacular, turning 133 targets into 89 receptions for 1,402 yards and 13 touchdowns (66.9 percent, 10.5 YPT).

Projected round: 3-5

24. Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Oregon State* (6-foot-4, 209 pounds)

Hodgins struggled as a true freshman in 2017, but in the two subsequent years he went on to establish himself as one of the nation's top wideouts, drawing 216 targets and securing 145 of them for 2,047 yards and 18 touchdowns (67.1 percent catch rate, 9.5 YPT). His athletic testing could really put him on the map if he does well enough, because he'd have a sterling profile if the athleticism variable grades as plus.

Projected round: 3-4

25. Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty (6-foot-4, 220 pounds)

I might be a little higher on Gandy-Golden than some, but he seems like a quick study to me, at least pending workout metrics. He has an ideal frame to play outside receiver, and he posted three consecutive 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown seasons to close out his career. He caught 79 of 142 targets for 1,396 yards and 10 touchdowns this year, good for a 55.6 percent catch rate at 9.8 YPT in an offense that completed 56.9 percent of its passes at 8.3 yards per attempt. If he tanks at the combine then he might fall off the map, but I'm optimistic for now.

Projected round: 3-5