Dynasty Fantasy Football Strategy: Time to Rebuild

This article is part of our Dynasty Strategy series.

Some dynasty players hate it when a team that isn't already at the bottom of the league decides to tank/rebuild. Me, I don't mind, especially when I'm the one doing it. I also don't mind settings specifically designed to discourage this, as leagues admittedly becomes less fun when more than one or two teams per season are in the early stages of a non-competitive rebuild.

If multiple teams are tanking every year, it's probably a good idea to alter the playoff format or prize distribution in a way that discourages the behavior. There are other ways to go about this, like last-place penalties, but really that's a problem for another day/man.

For today, let's walk through the beginning part of a dynasty rebuild step-by-step, starting with my unusual decision to blow up a team that led the league in points last regular season. A team led by Tom Brady, Austin Ekeler, D'Andre Swift, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin and Darren Waller, with Saquon Barkley waiting on deck for 2022.

The Starting Point / The Decision

I'm an idiot, right? Well, yes, but probably for other reasons. Here there's context, starting with the unfortunate reality it's a 10-team, two-QB league with best-ball scoring. Nearly every other team in the league has three starting NFL QBs, and the better teams have four. I have two, plus Florida Man.

It's also a two-TE league, with two FLEX spots, so my star power at RB and WR isn't the beastly force it would be in many other formats (depth matters a lot here, and so do QBs and TEs). My squad was in decent enough shape at tight end with Waller and Higbee, but it was well below league-average at QB, and lacking depth at RB. 

My path to the playoffs was basically Brady playing another year (check), Kupp leading the league in receiving again and all three of Ekeler/Swift/Barkley staying healthy. Even then, I'd be vulnerable to a Tua/Brady/Waller injury, and with limited options to upgrade because I don't have a 2022 first-round pick.

That last part was another big factor in my decision to rebuild; I would need a third starting QB and didn't have a realistic path to getting one without trading away one of my star players or a ton of future draft capital. I did actually put out some feelers at one point, but nobody seemed interested in trading away starting QBs (even lower-end guys) for what I thought was a reasonable price.

Apart from whatever I'd add in the second and third rounds of our upcoming rookie draft in August, it felt like I was pretty much stuck with this team, which I ranked as fourth-to-fifth best in the league on paper (despite last year's relative success). Normally, that's not rebuild territory, especially coming off a successful season.

Why was this case different? Partly for the reasons mentioned above, and partly because two of the teams ahead of my beloved Baltimore Bad Kitties look to be far ahead. Moishe's Milwaukee Moonshiners have four starting QBs, five starting RBs and two killer tight ends (Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert), while Bob's Halifax Hippopotamuses trot out a QB quartet of Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins and a TE trio of George Kittle, Kyle Pitts and T.J. Hockenson.

That's enough to send even the baddest of kitties scurrying under the couch.

It's Trade Time

Now that we've decided to do this thing, it's important to get it done as soon as possible, right? 

Wrong. Much the opposite, in fact. The last thing we want is to be pinned in a position where we feel obligated to trade quality veterans and aren't getting much interest from league mates. That's how good men end up the victims of fantasy trade robberies, left to rot without recourse.

February is a good time to decide to rebuild. So is March. Or June. August is not, unless you have a time machine. September definitely isn't, unless it's Week 1 and your two best players just ran into each other and simultaneously tore ACLs. We already have to deal with other fantasy owners who won't want to give us what our players are worth; why add a time constraint that probably favors them in negotiations?

So, my first step was simply to update my 'trade bait' on MFL and wait. No need to seem desperate right away, especially not with players like Kupp and Ekeler whose names should broadcast loud and clear to any team in need of WR or RB help. Once an offer or two came in, I started to not only send out counter-offers but also send my own offers to other managers who hadn't shown interest.

The obvious place to start was the two big-dog teams mentioned above, perhaps playing one off the other, and then the two or three teams within punching distance (or so they'd like to think). Discussing the same players in different trades with different teams at the same time does get confusing, admittedly, but it probably falls in the 'good problem' category.

To weed out the pretenders from the contenders, I did something rather unusual (at least in North American culture) and simply said what I wanted. For Kupp, two first-rounders plus something. For Ekeler, slightly less than two first-rounders. For Waller... well, I don't exactly remember, but looking back it wasn't quite enough (my one regret).

Ultimately, I got my price, split between two different megatrades. When I was asked to come down from a price, I either said "no, I can afford to wait" or I offered an alternative that was barely diffrent from the original and with similar value from my standpoint. It didn't hurt that other teams were aware I was talking with multiple squads, i.e., they knew the cost of missing out on Ekeler wasn't just being stuck with a mediocre RB group, it was watching him put up points for one of the other top teams in the league.

Anyway, here's what I ended up doing:

Trade #1 w/ Oconomowoc Five Os

Trade #2 w/ Milwaukee Moonshiners

My only regret is that I essentially settled for Ridley plus some loose ends in exchange for Waller, who is extra valuable in this two-TE format. I think I could've gotten two firsts for Ekeler, two seconds for Brady, and then something better than Ridley plus picks swaps for Waller (perhaps trading with a different manager). Or maybe the trade never happens if we break it down like that into smaller parts with Waller sent elsewhere. Either way, I need to think of it in those smaller parts in order to function without a headache.

The second trade is perfect. I traded Kupp for what he's worth, and then we tacked on a couple details that made sense for a non-competitive team trading with a contender (I got a low-end prospect and more late-round draft capital; Moishe's Moonshiners got most of my BBID). 

You'll notice I didn't get any 2022 first-rounders, which isn't a coincidence. I found other managers surprisingly hesitant to part with current-year picks, even though this is a lousy rookie class for a two-QB, two-TE league. Then again, not exactly surprising that teams trying to win this season have a strong time preference for picks. But I'm fine with stinking it up this year; better last place than eighth... last gets me the No. 1 overall pick!

Look at Me Now / What's Next?

With one starting QB and limited 2022 draft capital, I have no chance to compete this season and no real chance to do a warp-speed rebuild. The realistic timeline? Competitive in 2024, dominant in 2025. My buy-ins for 2022 and 2023 should be thought of as gone, even if there is some low-probability series of events wherein I might compete as early as next season (it's probably more practical to pretend there isn't). So, now what?

1. Trade Away More RBs

Given my timeline and the lifespan of NFL running backs, it isn't just Ekeler I should be moving. Barkley, too, be it now or during the season. In his case, I'll probably gamble that he has some big games and gets back toward his old value.

With the 23-year-old Swift, it won't be easy to say goodbye, but that's exactly what I should do if someone is willing to give me a full-value package headlined by a 2023 1st-round pick or a premium young WR. The latter might be wiser if I'm still thinking 2024 and not 2025... a team entirely comprised of first and second-year players isn't going to go far, even if they're all first-round picks.

Not that it's my primary concern, but there is a risk of pushing the timeline to 3-4 years instead of 2-3 if I really trade away all the good players for picks.

2. Get rid of 2024 3rd-rounder / Add later picks in 2022-23

Basically, I like to have late-round picks in obvious tanking years but only earlier picks toward the end part of my rebuild timeline. That's specific to best-ball scoring, where it really hurts a competitive team if back-end roster spots are being used on mid-level prospects instead of mid-level right-now contributors.

Today, I'm fine with rostering the Brian Robinsons and Khalil Shakirs of the world. I have time (at least two years) to wait for them to develop, without caring if they put up any points in the current week/season. By 2024, it'll hopefully be somewhat of a burden to have that type of player on my roster (if I'm competing for a playoff spot, as I hope to be). If I draft late-round picks in 2024, there's a good chance I end up dropping them within the first weeks of the season to accommodate a waiver addition.

Long story short: I like late picks when I'm tanking, but don't really want anything after Round 2 once I plan to be in a competing cycle. That doesn't mean I'm in any huge rush to get rid of that 2024 third-rounder, but it'll at least be in the back of my mind when discussing trades.

3. Squat on Handcuffs

I mostly want to populate my roster with rookies or second-year players, but one of the exceptions I'll make is for backup running backs, many of whom will experience temporary spikes in value during the season. If Cam Akers gets hurts again, I'll instantly look to trade Darrell Henderson. And if anything happens to make Myles Gaskin relevant, I'll take whatever I can get (if he's still on my team by then).

In this league, we get "extra picks" at the very end of the draft if we don't have enough players to fill a 27-man roster. The rookies left at this point are mostly sixth/seventh-round picks or undrafted guys, so I'll also consider veteran backup running backs who might later be tradeable for low-level prospects or late 2023 picks.

Another option, at least in this league, is to squat on backup QBs, though the injury rate at the position obviously is much lower.

4. Account for Differences in Positional Aging/Development

Tight ends tend to develop slower than other positions, as do quarterbacks, and even wide receivers come along slower than running backs, on average. Given that RBs are quickest to peak and also have the shortest peaks, we'll ideally be adding most of our talent there during the later stages of a rebuild.

For now, the preferred draft picks are QBs and TEs, followed by wide receivers. Unfortunately, the 2022 draft class doesn't offer a ton of hope for me at those first two positions — part of why I wasn't stressed about my lack of a first-round pick even in Year 1 of a rebuild. The 2023 class should be much better, and I'll have all the picks I need to take advantage. Let's hope the 2024 class brings some stud RBs to top things off for me.

5. Lose Games

I don't want to be the guy pulling shenanigans throughout the season in order to finish last. I just want my team to be so young and so weak at one or two positions that it naturally glides into last place without resistance.

Really, I think more leagues should do pick lotteries, but until then... I'll keep playing to maximize my chances of winning championships under the rules as they're written. Last place or bust!