• I realize that Samaje Perine won't start over Rob Kelley to begin the year, but I still strongly believe it would be a mistake to think Kelley will win this in the long run. Kelley's current place in the lineup, I would argue, is entirely founded on coach familiarity rather than any sort of demonstrable merit. That familiarity may be valuable to coach Jay Gruden during the controlled setting of training camp, but that comfort would wane in the face of a production shortage, and there's plenty of reason Kelley will see such shortages early and often as his work sample grows.
Kelley finished his Tulane career having never earned a starting role, playing behind all of Orleans Darkwa, Dontrell Hilliard, and Sherman Badie at various points. Despite playing off the bench at a low level of competition, Kelley showed neither efficiency nor explosiveness as a runner, finishing with just 1,270 yards over 318 carries (4.0 YPC). Additionally, Kelley's poor workout numbers means he has no physical tools with which to project any substantial improvement. He ran a 4.68-second 40-yard dash despite running it in a pro day setting, otherwise posting a 110-inch broad jump and 11.82 agility score.
Perine ran a 4.65-second 40 at the Combine, adding a 116-inch broad jump and 11.63 agility score. More importantly, Perine was dominant even as a true freshman at Oklahoma, where playing time and production are much harder to come by than at Tulane. Despite competing for carries against much
• I realize that Samaje Perine won't start over Rob Kelley to begin the year, but I still strongly believe it would be a mistake to think Kelley will win this in the long run. Kelley's current place in the lineup, I would argue, is entirely founded on coach familiarity rather than any sort of demonstrable merit. That familiarity may be valuable to coach Jay Gruden during the controlled setting of training camp, but that comfort would wane in the face of a production shortage, and there's plenty of reason Kelley will see such shortages early and often as his work sample grows.
Kelley finished his Tulane career having never earned a starting role, playing behind all of Orleans Darkwa, Dontrell Hilliard, and Sherman Badie at various points. Despite playing off the bench at a low level of competition, Kelley showed neither efficiency nor explosiveness as a runner, finishing with just 1,270 yards over 318 carries (4.0 YPC). Additionally, Kelley's poor workout numbers means he has no physical tools with which to project any substantial improvement. He ran a 4.68-second 40-yard dash despite running it in a pro day setting, otherwise posting a 110-inch broad jump and 11.82 agility score.
Perine ran a 4.65-second 40 at the Combine, adding a 116-inch broad jump and 11.63 agility score. More importantly, Perine was dominant even as a true freshman at Oklahoma, where playing time and production are much harder to come by than at Tulane. Despite competing for carries against much better running backs, including second-round pick Joe Mixon, Perine finished his career as Oklahoma's all-time rushing yardage leader, totaling 4,122 yards (6.0 YPC) and 49 touchdowns.
Perine is going to take this job at some point this year. The question of when is a legitimate concern to raise with respect to whether Perine gets his touches early enough in the year to help his fantasy owners, but I'm expecting him to regularly hit double-digit carries by the season's second month, with a nearly complete displacement of Kelley from the starting lineup by the end of October. Waiting four to eight weeks for a player to break out can try one's patience, but what are you realistically getting out of your 11th or 12th-round running back pick, anyway?
• Wendell Smallwood hasn't received much attention this summer after a rookie season where he generally disappointed, and I'm among those who almost completely forgot about him. With LeGarrette Blount's struggles in the preseason and the departure of Ryan Mathews, however, there's been a renewed interest in the Philadelphia backup running back situation. Consider me one of those interested.
I was a fan of Smallwood when he entered last year's draft, and had high hopes for him when he got extended run last year. That he disappointed in that role is safe to say, but 77 carries isn't a big enough to sample to write off a prospect as solid as Smallwood, and 4.1 yards per carry isn't even that bad, either. Devonta Freeman finished his rookie year with an average of 3.8 yards per carry on 65 carries, and he bounced back well enough.
While I don't think Smallwood is as good of a prospect as Freeman was, I think their prospect profiles aren't far apart. Smallwood is actually the better athlete of the two, as Smallwood posted a 4.47-second 40-yard dash and 120-inch broad jump at the Combine while Freeman had a 4.58 and 118-inch broad jump. In addition to the solid athletic profile, Smallwood had excellent college production to point toward, finishing his final year at West Virginia with 1,519 yards (6.4 YPC) and nine touchdowns in 13 games, and his 68 career receptions for 618 imply upside as a pass catcher, too.
Smallwood's current projection in the Philadelphia backfield probably doesn't have enough initial playing time to make him worth more than a late-round pick in standard-sized leagues, but he's among my favorite dead-end options at the position, along with the likes of Robert Turbin and Javorius Allen around the 16th rounds and later in 12-team formats.
• I was only slightly unserious when I remarked a few weeks ago that 'Mike Gillislee signing with New England doesn't mean Gillislee will run for 18 touchdowns – it means Tom Brady is going to throw for 50.' Due in no small part to Gillislee missing about three weeks with a hamstring pull, the scenario has become more believable the more I've pondered it.
I certainly agree with the premise that Gillislee is the top between-the-tackles runner on the Patriots roster, but I'm old enough to remember the season where New England went 18-1, a year that ended poorly but was nonetheless probably the best team this already best-ever dynasty fielded at any point. That they're heading into this year with three pass-catching backs in James White, Dion Lewis, and Rex Burkhead with otherwise just Gillislee, an off-the-bench runner under 220 pounds who primarily worked out of the shotgun to this point – accumulating 605 of his career 865 rushing yards out of the formation – has me increasingly convinced that Bill Belichick intends for the 2017 New England offense to resemble the 2007 one.
Brady threw for 4,806 yards and 50 touchdowns that year. With a thin, pass-oriented running back rotation and a deep group of pass catchers in Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, and Malcolm Mitchell, Brady has been my QB1 over Aaron Rodgers for a while now.
As for the backfield, I'm anticipating something pretty close to a 25/25/25/25 snap split between Gillislee, White, Lewis, and Burkhead. Gillislee remains the top target – his career-long lack of pass-catching production implies his work will disproportionately occur as a runner, especially in scoring position – but I can imagine all four having their utility at appropriate ADPs in PPR leagues, especially in best ball formats. Guessing when these guys will produce will be a headache-inducing task, but knowing that they will at some point is pretty easy. I'd take Gillislee in the 7th/8th-round range, White in the 10th-to-12th, and Lewis and Burkhead in the 14th rounds and later in PPR formats.
