This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was frustrating with the Colts losing on Gary Kubiak's bad FG decision and then the unlucky fumble-six and the Giants (my best bet) winning by only three because Odell Beckham dropped a sure TD pass, and their coach decided to run the ball 28 times against a Saints team that gave up nine yards per passing attempt. I'm sure I got lucky on some others that don't stick in my mind, so I won't belabor it. All told, I went 7-9, 1-3 on the "easy" ones and 2-3 on the coin flips.
This week was tough. Coin flips include the Saints, Bears, Colts, Jaguars, Titans and Patriots. My easiest ones were the Bengals, Seahawks and Steelers. No best bets as of yet, but I might add one in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Texans -1 at Patriots
If Jimmy Garappolo could look like Tom Brady, maybe Jacoby Brissett will be John Elway. Seriously, though, as tough as the Texans have played, I'll take the Patriots as a mild home dog on a short week. Back New England.
Patriots 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Broncos +3 at Bengals
The Broncos defense is great, but the Bengals are no slouches, they're at home, and they should have their way with Trevor Siemian. Lay the points.
Bengals 20 - 10
Raiders +1.5 at Titans
I hate both these teams. The Raiders with their annoying, fiery overrated quarterback and the Titans with their troglodyte coaching staff and front office. I suppose I'll
Last week was frustrating with the Colts losing on Gary Kubiak's bad FG decision and then the unlucky fumble-six and the Giants (my best bet) winning by only three because Odell Beckham dropped a sure TD pass, and their coach decided to run the ball 28 times against a Saints team that gave up nine yards per passing attempt. I'm sure I got lucky on some others that don't stick in my mind, so I won't belabor it. All told, I went 7-9, 1-3 on the "easy" ones and 2-3 on the coin flips.
This week was tough. Coin flips include the Saints, Bears, Colts, Jaguars, Titans and Patriots. My easiest ones were the Bengals, Seahawks and Steelers. No best bets as of yet, but I might add one in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Texans -1 at Patriots
If Jimmy Garappolo could look like Tom Brady, maybe Jacoby Brissett will be John Elway. Seriously, though, as tough as the Texans have played, I'll take the Patriots as a mild home dog on a short week. Back New England.
Patriots 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Broncos +3 at Bengals
The Broncos defense is great, but the Bengals are no slouches, they're at home, and they should have their way with Trevor Siemian. Lay the points.
Bengals 20 - 10
Raiders +1.5 at Titans
I hate both these teams. The Raiders with their annoying, fiery overrated quarterback and the Titans with their troglodyte coaching staff and front office. I suppose I'll take the home team laying less than three. Back Tennessee.
Titans 27 - 23
Cardinals -4 at Bills
The Cardinals should destroy them, but every square must be thinking that, so I'll take the Bills out of principle.
Cardinals 24 - 23
Ravens pick em at Jaguars
This is a coin flip. The Ravens are probably the better team, but they're not as good on the road, and I'll buy low on the Jaguars.
Jaguars 24 - 20
Browns +9.5 at Dolphins
This is probably the sucker side, but I'll lay the points here. The Dolphins had success throwing against the Patriots in the second half, and they can build on that against a weak Cleveland defense. The Browns should have trouble moving the ball with Cody Kessler under center in his first game. Lay the wood.
Dolphins 27 - 10
Redskins +4.5 at Giants
The Giants have the personnel of a playoff team and the coach of high school one. Their defense should slow the Redskins, but I'd expect Ben McAdoo to play it much too close to the vest and unnecessarily send it down to the wire. Take the points.
Giants 23 - 20
Lions +7.5 at Packers
Maybe the Packers get it together this week, but I've been saying that for a year now. It's on them to show it before I'm laying a TD against a league-average team. Take the Lions.
Packers 27 - 24
Vikings +7 at Panthers
I'm more worried about the loss of Matt Kalil than Adrian Peterson against the Panthers' stout front, but seven is a lot of points with the Vikings defense. Take Minnesota.
Panthers 20 - 16
LATE GAMES
49ers +9.5 at Seahawks
The Seahawks have problems on offense, particularly with Russell Wilson gimpy and the offensive line unable to protect him, but the 49ers are probably still a doormat, and Seattle's at home. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 24 - 7
Rams +5 at Buccaneers
This seems like a good buy-low, sell high. Take the Bucs who are likely to throw more with Charles Sims replacing Doug Martin.
Buccaneers 27 - 17
Steelers -3.5 at Eagles
Carson Wentz passes the eye test, but his receivers drop passes, and I don't think the Eagles defense will slow the Steelers down enough. Lay the wood on the road.
Steelers 30 - 17
Jets +3 at Chiefs
I could go either way here, but I like the Chiefs defense at home to force Ryan Fitzpatrick into a couple turnovers. Back Kansas City.
Chiefs 23 - 17
Chargers +3 at Colts
The Chargers looked great last week, but it's time to sell high. Andrew Luck will play better at home against someone other than Denver. Lay the points.
Colts 31 - 27
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bears +7 at Cowboys
The Bears with Brian Hoyer on the road? Sign me up! Seriously, I can't imagine anyone wanting to back Chicago, so in a game I don't want any part of, this has to be the side. Take the points.
Cowboys 24 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Falcons +3 at Saints
These teams typically play close games, but I have a hard time getting away from the Saints at home against a weak Falcons defense. Take New Orleans.
Saints 27 - 23
I went 7-9 last week to go 17-15 on the season. I'm 0-1 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
