Beating the Book: NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread

Welcome to the Divisional Round edition of Beating the Book!

We emerged from Wild Card Weekend with a 3-3 mark ATS, hitting on the Bills, Commanders and Eagles and losing on the Vikings, Ravens and Chargers.

While the Texans ultimately blowing out the Chargers was perhaps the biggest surprise of the weekend, the one that really hurts is trusting the Steelers – the Pittsburgh Steelers – to cover in Baltimore. Divisional matchup, third meeting of the season, Mike Tomlin as a dog, etc. etc. As it turns out, none of that matters when the Ravens are the vastly superior team and Pittsburgh has been on a month-long slide.

We now turn the page to the Divisional Round – perennially one of the best weekends of the NFL season. I will admit, I already miss having a 16-game slate as our disposal, but this weekend's four-gamer is packed with intriguing matchups.  As of publication, the Lions are the biggest favorite on the board, with the Chiefs close behind. Philly, meanwhile, is laying 6.5 at home to the Rams, who are fresh off of a decimation of the Vikings on Monday night.

But those three games all feel like somewhat of a preamble for the Ravens-Bills showdown to cap off the slate on Sunday evening. After opening as a 1.5-point favorite, Buffalo now finds itself as a home dog against Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and a Ravens team that's won five straight games by at least two touchdowns.

You can find my thoughts on all of those games, and the entire Wild Card slate, below. As will be the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Wild Card Weekend:

• Commanders +3.0 at Bucs: Washington was able to control the clock, convert third downs and once again come through with a game-winning drive behind another impressive performance from Jayden Daniels.
• Eagles -4.5 vs. Packers: The Eagles didn't even need to play a good offensive game to comfortably handle a Packers team that feels like it fell apart over the final three weeks of the season.

Worst calls of Wild Card Weekend:

• Steelers +9.5 at Ravens: It turns out going home chalk was the play for both big favorites on Wild Card Weekend. Pittsburgh hit a couple of long passing TDs but never truly threatened to make it a game.
• Chargers -2.5 at Texans: Justin Herbert and the Chargers picked a tough time to come out with their sloppiest game of the season.

Last week: 3-3 ATS; 3-3 SU; best bet won (PHI -4.5)

On the season: 143-131-4 ATS; 191-87 SU; 5-11-2 best bets

Saturday Doubleheader

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -8.5

Total: 41.5

Houston winning at home last week wasn't necessarily a shock, but the degree to which the Texans dominated the game certainly was. In terms of yardage, it was the Texans' second-highest output of the season, while C.J. Stroud's 261 net passing yards were his most in any game since Week 8. But the offense almost feels like a footnote compared to a defense that forced four turnovers and held the Chargers to just 261 total yards. 

That defense will be tested again this week against a Chiefs team that comes in well-rested after earning a Round 1 bye. Patrick Mahomes, and most of KC's regulars, haven't played since Week 17. That should be an advantage for an experienced postseason group, but there could be some rust concerns for an offense that's mostly failed to live up to expectations.

Even with the Texans riding some level of momentum, I don't have much concern about Kansas City winning outright. But of the Chiefs' 15 wins this season, only four have come by more than eight points. Ultimately, I think KC is able to force some mistakes – Houston did commit three turnovers of its own last week – and win by two scores, but I won't be surprised if Houston is able to come up with enough stops to make this a legitimate sweat. 

We'll take Kansas City to cover, but the U41.5 is my favorite play.

The pick: Chiefs 24 – Texans 14

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -9.5

Total: 55.0

Washington's reward for pulling out a walk-off win in Tampa on Sunday night? A date with the top-seeded Lions coming off of a first-round bye. As you'd expect, the Lions are heavy home favorites and should be getting at least a couple of key pieces back, including David Montgomery, who hasn't played since Week 15.

Even with their slew of defensive injuries, the Lions should have plenty of advantages, and that defense's dominant performance in Week 18 against Minnesota is still fresh in the mind. With that said, Jayden Daniels presents some unique matchup issues, and the Lions have mostly struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks this season (6.2 YPC allowed; 31st in NFL). Daniels' poise and continued ability to extend drives and help the Commanders control the clock have been key, but he'll likely need to put up at least 27-to-30 points for Washington to have a chance.

I like Daniels to challenge this defense and force the Lions' offense to respond, but we do need to keep in mind that he's still making just his second career playoff start. The Washington running game also found little to no success last week against Tampa Bay. They won't be able to get away with that again.

Ultimately, Washington can make this a competitive game, but the Lions should eventually pull away.

The pick: Lions 35 – Commanders 24

Sunday Doubleheader

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -6.5

Total: 43.5

After easily dispatching the Packers despite a sluggish offensive performance, the Eagles now welcome in a Rams team coming off of a dominant defensive showing Monday night. Much like the Chargers-Texans game, LA winning wasn't necessarily a surprise, but the way the Rams won absolutely was. 

Offensively, the Rams played well, but it was far from an elite performance. They punted six times and went just 2-of-10 on third downs. But the defense came through with pretty easily its best showing of the season, holding the Vikings to just 3.8 yards per play, cashing in a sack-fumble-six and bringing down Sam Darnold nine times in total to tie an NFL single-game postseason record. 

Based on how the Eagles looked last week, there's a case to be made that the Rams may be catching Jalen Hurts and Co. at the right time, but we need to keep in mind that Hurts essentially missed three weeks heading into the postseason. He didn't play poorly either – it was more of a general grind for the Philly offense at large.

I'm inclined to believe that we'll see a more aggressive approach this week, and chances are the Rams will not be able to generate as much pressure against one of the NFL's best offensive lines.

I like the Rams to put a scare into the Eagles and threaten to win outright, but Philly is accustomed to grinding out these games. In his three career playoff victories, Hurts has never thrown for more than 154 yards. 

The pick: Eagles 23 – Rams 20

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Ravens -1.0

Total: 51.5

Fittingly, we finish off the Divisional Round slate with what may be the most-anticipated game of the entire postseason. Both Baltimore and Buffalo took care of business in impressive fashion last week, setting up a showdown between MVP candidates and a rematch from Week 4 of the regular season.

Baltimore dominated that first meeting 35-10, ripping off 271 rushing yards behind a monster day from Derrick Henry. In the time since, it feels as though both teams have only improved. Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in 10 of its last 11 games (excluding Week 18), while the Ravens entered the postseason as the No. 1 team in the NFL by both EPA and DVOA. Fittingly, both teams finished the regular season with the exact same, plus-157 point differential.

Even with the Ravens dominating the first matchup, it goes without saying that this is a complete toss-up game between perhaps the top two teams – upside-wise – in the NFL. The Bills have reason to believe their best game is better than anyone else's, and the Ravens should feel the same.

The game being in Buffalo – unlike that Week 4 clash – is certainly an advantage for the Bills. Josh Allen is 5-2 SU in home postseason games. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson's postseason shortcomings have been well-publicized, and he has just one road playoff win on his resume (2020, at TEN). But this is the best supporting cast Jackson has ever had, and the Ravens' defense has played about as well as any unit in the NFL over the last two months.

My lean is on the Ravens here. Baltimore's running game feels borderline-unstoppable, and as long as Zay Flowers is able to play, the Ravens should find ways to exploit a Bills secondary that has some holes. 

With the total hanging north of 50.0, I also like this as another under spot, despite the firepower on both sides. Both teams – Baltimore, in particular – will try to control the game on the ground, and Jackson has never played in a postseason game that finished above 44 total points. The conditions in Buffalo could also play a factor, as we're looking at temperatures in the low-teens with a chance for some snow.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Bills 23