This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a quarterback after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Upside
It took a long time, but the Ravens finally brought in an offensive coordinator who likes the passing game. As a result, Jackson's 3,678 passing yards last season were the most of his career. However, the star threw 24 passing touchdowns – good but nothing special. It should be noted Jackson seemed to get better as he got used to the new offense. After the Week 12 bye, the two-time MVP had four multi-TD games as a passer (in six games, including the playoffs). While Jackson was heating up, he was without his best pass-catcher (Mark Andrews). Now in Year 2 of the offense, we could see the former Louisville Cardinal have the type of season he had in 2019, when he 'broke' fantasy football. We didn't even
Most fantasy managers go into drafts with some type of cheat sheet, but let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. When comparing players, we'll break down players at the same position because fantasy managers typically have a good idea of which position they're targeting with a specific pick.
For those looking for a quarterback after the top-12 picks are off the board, this ADP battle is for you. We'll compare Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Upside
It took a long time, but the Ravens finally brought in an offensive coordinator who likes the passing game. As a result, Jackson's 3,678 passing yards last season were the most of his career. However, the star threw 24 passing touchdowns – good but nothing special. It should be noted Jackson seemed to get better as he got used to the new offense. After the Week 12 bye, the two-time MVP had four multi-TD games as a passer (in six games, including the playoffs). While Jackson was heating up, he was without his best pass-catcher (Mark Andrews). Now in Year 2 of the offense, we could see the former Louisville Cardinal have the type of season he had in 2019, when he 'broke' fantasy football. We didn't even spend time talking about his rushing skills. We likely can pencil in 800+ yards on the ground. In a best-case scenario, Jackson finishes as the top fantasy quarterback this season.
Downside
As much as the Ravens committed to the run, they have rarely had a (running back) rushing attack that can overwhelm opponents. With Derrick Henry on the roster, he may have a level of success that results in games Baltimore controls throughout. In those situations, Jackson may not be needed to dominate as a passer and runner. If the offense falls into a 50-50 run/pass split, Jackson may not have the volume to finish as a top-four quarterback.
The Bottom Line
Henry will add a new dynamic to the Baltimore offense. That said, the blend of running and passing may be so good the Ravens light up the scoreboard most weeks. As a result, there will be enough production for Jackson to be an elite fantasy option and the rushing attack does well. In most scenarios, Jackson should finish somewhere between QB2 and QB4.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Upside
Richardson was incredible in three of the four games he played as a rookie. In the two games in which he played a full snap share, Richardson scored 25.2 and 29.5 fantasy points. Even in the Week 2 contest where he played just 17 snaps, he scored 18.3 fantasy points. Richardson already proved to be an elite runner. Even though there were questions about his passing ability, Richardson threw three touchdown passes over the two games in which he played more than 21 snaps. Having Shane Steichen running the offense should ensure Richardson is often in a position to succeed. Still, the passing numbers could be a little light while the rushing numbers are through the roof. Best-case scenario? Richardson finishes as a top-three fantasy QB.
Downside
It may be easy to explain away, but Richardson did not finish three of the four games he started. In two of those contests, he didn't make it through 22 snaps. In another game, he was injured on the last drive, so it's unclear as to whether he could have returned. The injuries are based on a tiny sample, but it is the only sample we have. The downside is he either misses a significant chunk of time or has games in which he leaves early. On a per-game basis, the production should be fine, but missed time would be problematic.
The Bottom Line
Richardson could be a league-winner signal-caller. As noted earlier, the small-sample injury issues of 2023 must be considered. When drafting a high-end quarterback in single-QB leagues there is often no need to draft a backup. However, based on our experience with the Colts' quarterback, it would be highly advisable to draft a prominent backup in case Richardson misses time.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans
Upside
Stroud quickly showed he was a superstar. For fantasy, the former Ohio State star had just four games with at least 25 fantasy points. For the second-year player to compete with other elite fantasy options, he may need to throw more than the 33 passes per game of his rookie year. Also, if coach Bobby Slowik finds a way to optimize all three of the Texans' top receivers (Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell), it's difficult to think any defense in the league can stop those weapons. If Houston prioritizes the passing attack, Stroud could throw 40 touchdown passes. In that scenario, he would likely finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Downside
The Texans had an uninspiring running game with Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce last year. In the offseason, the team brought in Joe Mixon. If coach Slowik's offense is going to resemble that of San Francisco and Miami (Slowik is from the Shanahan coaching tree), we could see a much bigger commitment to the run this year. As a result, Stroud could see a decrease in pass attempts from last year. Also, if the running game clicks, we will see a decrease in three-receiver sets. In those cases, one of the star pass-catchers would be off the field, which will limit numbers. Finally, Stroud only rushed for 167 yards last year. If the rushing is similar, that would place Stroud behind many of the other top QBs in terms of upside.
The Bottom Line
Stroud is an amazing quarterback. However, I do expect the pass attempts to be limited. Also, rushing doesn't seem to be a major component of Stroud's game. He's more likely a top-eight fantasy QB than a top-five option. At ADP, he may lack desired upside.
The Final Word
Last year was the first time since his rookie year Jackson was not on a 1,000-yard rushing pace. Between the rushing ability and the improvement Jackson showed while learning the offense last year, he is the safest of these quarterback options. Although Jackson and Richardson both have the potential to finish at the top of the quarterback rankings, the small-sample size durability forces me to move Richardson below Jackson. Finishing third in the battle is Stroud. Without significant rushing production, the amount of passing stats Stroud would need to compete with Jackson and Richardson may not be possible.
