Beating The Book

I had all four favorites last week, something that looked good on Saturday, but on Sunday not so much, including my best bet, the Saints. 

This week I don't have any strong leans, as I set both lines at three, and it turns out that's what they are. 

Buccaneers +3 at Packers

The Buccaneers destroyed the Packers in Tampa Week 6, the only game where Aaron Rodgers looked bad and during which he threw two of his five interceptions. It's possible the Buccaneers happen to match up especially well against the Packers, but more likely that game was an anomaly, as the Packers offensive line has played well the rest of the year, and while the Bucs' pass rush (48 sacks, 5th) is good, it's by no means an outlier. 

The Buccaneers offense has been a machine the last few weeks, as Tom Brady spread the ball around to his entire complement of future Hall of Fame or current Pro Bowl-level targets. The Packers defense has been solid against the pass (6.6 YPA, 10th) with 41 sacks (T-10th) and barely worse than the Bucs (6.4 YPA.) The biggest difference between the two defenses has been on the ground: the Bucs held teams to a league-low 3.6 YPC, while the Packers allowed 4.5 (21st.) The Packers offense was the best in the NFL this year (31.8 PPG, 1st and 6.3 YPP, 2nd.) The Bucs weren't too far behind, though (30.8 PPG, 3rd and 6.0 YPP, 7th.) 

Bottom line, these are roughly equal teams, both largely healthy and playing the game in cold weather conditions (temperature is expected to be about 22 degrees), which favors the Packers. It's essentially a coin flip, but I'll take the home team and lay the wood. 

Packers 31 - 27

Bills +3 at Chiefs

I'm assuming Patrick Mahomes is healthy for this game -- he not only suffered a concussion last week, but also was playing through an injured toe. The Bills are a great story -- Josh Allen looks like a star in Year 3, and Stefon Diggs was one of the free agent signings of the year. Both teams are extremely pass heavy, and both are effective -- the Chiefs averaged 6.3 YPP (3rd), while the Bills managed 6.1 (6th.) On defense the Bills allowed 5.5 YPP (15th) while the Chiefs allowed 5.6 (20th.)

Like the NFC teams, these squads are roughly equal with home field advantage, and maybe having a recent bye week, largely accounting for the line. Give me the Chiefs because of Mahomes, but again, this is a coin flip. 

Chiefs 31 - 27

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 2-2 last week during the Wild Card round, to go 6-4 so far in the playoffs and lost my best bet, the Saints. My season-long record was 118-130-8, my best bet record was 5-12 and I finished the Supercontest 35-48-2. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2020, I've gone 2,808-2,626 (51.7%), not including ties.