This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.
Someone in your league used a valuable draft pick on the Chicago defense, planning to lock it in as an every-week start and finish the year with elite production from the position. They probably aren't reading this column right now, but they'll wish they had by the end of the season.
Last year, the Jaguars turned out to be a wasted pick, regularly drafted first among defenses and ultimately finishing 15th in fantasy points. Only a stubborn fool held them throughout the entire season, enduring an ugly stretch in October and November while competitors got more points by playing matchups.
Last year's top 10 for D/ST fantasy scoring included just one team, the Rams, that had a top-5 ADP at the position before the season. It was even worse in 2017, when the top 5 in ADP averaged a 16th-place finish in fantasy points.
Defensive performance is difficult to predict in the first place; fantasy scoring even more so because it largely depends on low-frequency events, namely turnovers and return touchdowns. Offensive performance is more stable year-to-year, likely due to the heavily weighted importance of two people — the quarterback and the play caller — in determining outcomes.
We all can agree the Bears still have a good defense. But history suggests they aren't likely to repeat the league lead in fantasy points, and even if they do, that doesn't make them a good play when they're facing a strong offense. I actually outscored the Bears in my home league last year, streaming the highest-ranked available defense from my weekly rankings (listed at the bottom of this page).
If you don't trust me, trust the oddsmakers. It doesn't take long to figure out that the lowest implied point totals each week belong to the teams with the worst offenses, not the teams that face the best defenses. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, playing in Chicago, have a Week 1 implied total of 21.5. Josh Allen and the Bills, on the road against the Jets, have an implied total of 18.75.
I'm not saying implied totals and point spreads are the only things that matter, but I will say that you'll do pretty well with fantasy D/ST scoring if you strictly rely on betting lines to make choices each week. My goal here is to highlight situations where the odds are favorable, and then relay any other information hinting at increased potential for sacks and turnovers.
For injury-related updates throughout the week, follow me on Twitter (@RotowireNFL_JD).
Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses with ownership under 60 percent on Yahoo or 30 percent on ESPN as of Tuesday morning. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't account for yards allowed.
Top Streaming Options for Week 1
1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
63% Yahoo ownership, 14% ESPN
Team implied total: 26.5 points (T-6th of 32)
Opponent implied total: 16.5 points (31st)
Estimated Future Rank: 25th for Week 2 (at PIT), 22nd for W3 (vs. NO)
The Bengals are the biggest underdogs (+10) of Week 1, and they briefly had the lowest implied total before the Dolphins traded Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills to the Texans. Pat yourself on the back if you used a late-round pick on the Ravens, who place first in my Week 1 rankings and second for Week 2 (vs. ARZ).
Getting back to the matter at hand, the Bengals already don't have A.J. Green (ankle) and now are in danger of losing starting left tackle Cordy Glenn (concussion) for their opener. Glenn moved to left guard early in the offseason, only to kick back outside after the team's first-round pick, Jonah Williams, suffered a season-threatening shoulder injury. The Bengals are headed for a third straight year of terrible line play, unable to recover from their failure to re-sign Andre Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler during the 2017 offseason.
You might say I'm burying the lede here, with Seattle recently trading for Jadeveon Clowney to bookend offseason signing Ezekiel Ansah, who should make it back from shoulder surgery for Sunday's game. The middle of the line is still a weakness with DT Jarran Reed suspended, but Clowney, Ansah, Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright give the front-seven more than enough firepower to overwhelm an injury-riddled Cincinnati offense.
2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)
64% Yahoo ownership, 27% ESPN
Team implied total: 26.5 points (T-6th)
Opponent implied total: 19.5 points (27th)
Future Ranks: 8th for W2 (at WAS), 1st for W3 (vs. MIA)
Along with Philadelphia and Baltimore, the Cowboys are a prime target at the end of fantasy drafts, opening their season with three consecutive cupcake matchups before things get dicey with a Week 4 visit to New Orleans. The Bears are the only other defense in my top 10 for each of the first three weeks, and they check in at No. 9 for Week 1 (Dallas is No. 4).
The Giants have a solid offensive line and a superhuman running back, but they also have Eli Manning under center and absolutely nothing behind Sterling Shepard at wide receiver (at least while Golden Tate is suspended). Zeke or no Zeke, the Dallas offense should be able to provide a lead for an underrated defense that finished ninth in DVOA last year.
The Giants' sorry excuse for a defense is part of our equation here, offering minimal hope for a pass rush after Olivier Vernon was dealt to Cleveland in the offseason. B.J. Hill and Lorenzo Carter are the only players on the roster who had more than two sacks last season, combining for 9.5 across 1,083 defensive snaps (hardly dominant stuff).
3. New York Jets (vs. Buffalo Bills)
14% Yahoo ownership, 13% ESPN
Team implied total: 21.75 points (T-21st)
Opponent implied total: 18.75 points (28th)
Future Ranks: 23rd for W2 (vs. CLE), 31st for W3 (at NE)
Offseason additions Quinnen Williams and C.J. Mosley give the Jets some hope for an above-average defense for the first time since 2015, though the argument admittedly took a hit when linebacker Avery Williamson suffered an ACL tear during the preseason. What's left is an odd mix of high-end talent and glaring weaknesses, with the cornerbacks and outside linebackers appearing especially problematic.
In any case, the Jets should be able to hide those deficiencies Week 1, facing a quarterback who finished his rookie season ranked 32nd in interception rate (3.8), 26th in sack rate (8.0), 32nd in yards per attempt (6.5) and 33rd in completion percentage (52.8)....among 33 qualified passers. Josh Allen's scrambling may be entertaining, but it didn't prevent the Bills from giving up a league-high 181 fantasy points to team defenses last year.
4. Detroit Lions (at Arizona Cardinals)
3% Yahoo ownership, 3% ESPN
Team implied total: 25 points (T-11th)
Opponent implied total: 22.5 points (T-18th)
Future Ranks: 27th for W2 (vs. LAC), 27th for W3 (at PHI)
D/ST scoring is dominated by turnovers and sacks, with points and yards playing a much smaller part in the equation. A fast-paced offense in Arizona may lead to some shootouts, but any increase in snap volume also increases the opportunity for sacks and turnovers on both sides of the game.
The Lions upgraded their defense with the signings of DE Trey Flowers and slot corner Justin Coleman, while the Cardinals failed to sufficiently address their biggest weakness — an offensive line that places 32nd in the 2018 end-of-season rankings from Pro Football Focus. The Cardinals are 30th in PFF's 2019 pre-season line rankings, hoping injury-riddled RT Marcus Gilbert — the big offseason addition — can reach 400 snaps for the first time since 2016. Even if Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray turn out to be great together, the first season of their marriage will involve lots of sacks and turnovers.
5. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Detroit Lions)
2% Yahoo ownership, 2% ESPN
Team implied total: 22.5 points (T-18th)
Opponent implied total: 25 points (T-11th)
Future Ranks: 26th for W2 (at BAL), 16th for W3 (vs. CAR)
You can do better, or at least I hope you can. But just in case you can't, the Cardinals are a tolerable option with near-zero ownership on all major fantasy sites. Part of the appeal is the aforementioned possibility of elevated snap volume; the other part is a home matchup against a mediocre offense. The cornerbacks are a major issue with Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg) both unavailable, but the Cardinals at least added some talent to their front seven with the offseason signings of Terrell Suggs and Jordan Hicks. (Disclaimer: conventional wisdom from betting lines would put the Chiefs here instead of the Cardinals.)
Week 1 Rankings
1. Baltimore Ravens (at MIA)
2. Seattle Seahawks (vs. CIN)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (vs. WAS)
4. Dallas Cowboys (vs. NYG)
5. Cleveland Browns (vs. TEN)
6. New York Jets (vs. BUF)
7. Denver Broncos (at OAK)
8. New Orleans Saints (vs. HOU)
9. Chicago Bears (vs. GB)
10. Detroit Lions (at ARZ)
11. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. IND)
12. New England Patriots (vs. PIT)
13. Kansas City Chiefs (at JAX) - moved up w/ JAX LT Cam Robinson listed as doubtful
14. Los Angeles Rams (at CAR)
15. Minnesota Vikings (vs. ATL)
16. Buffalo Bills (at NYJ)
17. Arizona Cardinals (vs. DET)
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. KC)
19. San Francisco 49ers (at TB)
20. Oakland Raiders (vs. DEN)
Looking Ahead to Week 2
1. New England Patriots (at MIA)
2. Baltimore Ravens (vs. ARZ)
3. Houston Texans (vs. JAX)
4. Chicago Bears (at DEN)
5. Denver Broncos (vs. CHI)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (at OAK)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (at DET)
8. Dallas Cowboys (at WAS)
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (at HOU)
10. Indianapolis Colts (at TEN)
11. Carolina Panthers (vs. TB)
12. Tennessee Titans (vs. IND)
13. Buffalo Bills (at NYG)
14. Cleveland Browns (at NYJ)
15. Green Bay Packers (vs. MIN)
16. San Francisco 49ers (at CIN)
17. New York Giants (vs. BUF)
18. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. SEA)
19. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. SF)
20. Philadelphia Eagles (at ATL)
Rest-of-Season Rankings
1. Chicago Bears
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. Cleveland Browns
7. Minnesota Vikings
8. New England Patriots
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
10. New Orleans Saints
11. Denver Broncos
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. Buffalo Bills
14. Indianapolis Colts
15. Tennessee Titans
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
17. Houston Texans
18. Detroit Lions
19. Seattle Seahawks
20. Washington Redskins
