This article is part of our DraftKings EuroLeague DFS Picks series.
Slate Overview
Another double-game week is nearly in the books, and I'd like to do a little recap and also throw in a lesson. First off -- wow -- the last two days of action were flipped on their head with injury-related news. It started with Nicolas Laprovitttola on Wednesday, which brought a bunch of Barcelona players into play. Then Thursday, the slate was thrown out of whack when two high-usage, high minute guys -- Serge Ibaka and Nigel Hayes-Davis -- were ruled out before lineup lock. Although I think we see a more mild day Friday, always be prepared to react to news like that, and feel free to reach out on Twitter via @kurtancall if you're wondering who benefits when a player is ruled out.
As for Friday's lesson, we're going to talk about completely crossing off games to consider. I bring this up because I believe the Barcelona/Zalgiris game is one of those if Laprovittola laces them up. If he returns he absorbs so much usage, and his teammates are already priced efficiently. On the Zalgiris side, you aren't getting any discounts either, they run a very deep rotation and Barcelona does not give up many points. Over half the teams playing Friday give up some of the most points in the league, so trying to pick the one player who returns value in the game we've been discussing is particularly tough.
Laprovittola's status is really the only one to monitor Friday, but be prepared regardless, and good luck!
Guards to Go After
Players listed in order of confidence
Preferred Plays
Lorenzo Brown, Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv ($10,300)
Wade Baldwin IV, Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv ($9,900)
I know how frustrating these two have been with their low-floor games, but I'll say it every week -- their usages are through the roof, and they're priced way more fairly than any other guard on this slate. Partizan plays fast and gives up points to guards. We just have to have one of them knocking down their shots. Brown found himself in a little bit of foul trouble Wednesday, which led to less than 30 minutes.
Shane Larkin, Anadolu Efes Istanbul ($11,500)
Larkin is now just a raw-points play for me. What I mean by that is with his team fully healthy and he is priced up, the ceiling games are going to be hard to come and he needs close to 40.0 DraftKings points to make a difference. I will play Larkin in lineups that I think my value play can get 4x his salary and just take Larkin as a safe pick for 30.0 DraftKings points.
Paris Lee, LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne ($10,700)
Major public service announcement: ASVEL played its first game under Pierric Poupet on Tuesday, and doomsday has arrived for fantasy players. The new coach went deeper into the rotation, and it looks like most starters will be limited to minutes in the high 20s. I think the days of ASVEL players getting at least 33 minutes are gone for the foreseeable future -- particularly because the strategy wound up in a win. It's worth noting that Gianmarco Pozzecco was sacked for using a short rotation, so Poupet has motivation to do the opposite.
Marco Belinelli, Virtus Segafredo Bologna ($8,900)
Daniel Hackett, Virtus Segafredo Bologna ($8,800)
It was Belinelli on Wednesday with the big game, but itcould easily swing back to Hackett, who couldn't get anything going in that one. Efes is one of the softest matchups in the league, so anyone in the Virtus backcourt is squarely in play.
Valuable Values
James Nunnally, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade ($8,600)
P.J. Dozier, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade ($7,100)
Jaleen Smith, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade ($5,400)
Speaking of backcourts to go after, Maccabi also gives up a lot of points to guards. Partizan runs a very odd, deep rotation, but the matchup is so good I think one of these guys could get there. Dozier generally starts while Nunnally and Smith work off the bench.
Matteo Spagnolo, ALBA Berlin ($7,200)
Matt Thomas, ALBA Berlin ($6,200)
These are two guys who have seen more consistent minutes lately and now get a friendly matchup. Both started last game and would be back in play if starting again. Teammate Sterling Brown is also in consideration, but I feel like one of these guards can outscore him at a far cheaper rate.
Isaiah Canaan, Olympiacos Piraeus ($7,000)
We've talked lately about how frustrating the Olympiacos rotation, is but I do like to pick on Baskonia with shooting guards, and Canaan starts and gets at least 20 minutes in most competitive games. He's been cold lately, but for the price I'll keep taking shots until he finds his groove.
Rokas Jokubaitis, FC Barcelona ($5,600)
I know we talked about fading the Barcelona game, but I wanted to mention Jokubaitis just in case Laprovittola is ruled out. Jokubaitis started his career with Zalgiris and is from Lithuania, so there's a bit of a narrative to consider if the news breaks the right way.
Frontcourt in Focus
Players listed in order of confidence
Preferred Plays
Alec Peters, Olympiacos Piraeus ($9,700)
The top spot on my chart Friday is occupied by stretch power forwards against Baskonia, and that just so happens to fit Peters to a T. He's shooting 55 percent beyond the arc this season, and this should be a competitive contest, so I feel he's pretty safe by Euroleague standards .
Tornike Shengelia, Virtus Segafredo Bologna ($10,900)
He frustrated a lot of people last time out so I understand if you don't want to pay the price. He couldn't get any shots or free throws to fall and had a true floor game. However, this could be a bounceback spot, as Efes bleeds points to almost every single position.
Tibor Pleiss, Anadolu Efes Istanbul ($9,200)
The stretch big man has not been stopped since returning from an extended absence, and even at this elevated price he returned at least 3x value in the last three Rounds. His three-point shooting makes him tough to guard and he gobbles up offensive rebounds. If he sees at least 28 minutes it's going to be tough for someone with his skill set to finish with less than 24.0 DraftKings points.
Johannes Thiemann, ALBA Berlin ($8,900)
ALBA has the most annoying rotations in the EuroLeague, and they refuse to play their best players 30 minutes, but if Thiemann is efficient in this soft matchup he could hit the 30-point mark on DraftKings.
Moustapha Fall, Olympiacos Piraeus ($9,000)
I love the matchup here but the re-emergence and health of fellow big man Nikola Milutinov has capped Fall's minutes a bit. However, if you told me Fall or Thomas Walkup would get at least 28 minutes I'd be using them in every lineup. We just never know when starters not named Peters or Canaan will be pushed.
Valuable Values
Bryant Dunston, Virtus Segafredo Bologna ($6,900)
Ante Zizic, Virtus Segafredo Bologna ($5,600)
I'm only throwing Zizic in here because sometimes coaches tend to switch up roles during the second leg of these double-game weeks. If Zizic starts I like him, but I fully expect Dunston to get the nod like he usually does, and this will be a bit of a revenge game against his former team. I like the floor Dunston provides in a soft matchup and he was very successful against them in their last matchup.
Derek Willis, Anadolu Efes Istanbul ($6,700)
The stretch big man returned Wednesday and didn't miss a beat, stepping right back into a 25-minute role. I think he's a very safe last piece provided Tyrique Jones remains out.
Matt Costello, Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz ($7,100)
Zach LeDay, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade ($7,200)
They play on different teams, but I want to talk about this price range and these two players are in similar spots. Both have incredibly low floors, but 30.0 DraftKings points are still possible, which would be 4x value.
Joel Parra, FC Barcelona ($5,100)
Parra is another Barcelona guy I'm mentioning just in case we get unexpected news. Either way, Parra continues to play well and get extra minutes with Alex Abrines out.
