This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Oregon vs. Utah Best Bets
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Temperatures are supposed to drop below freezing over the course of the night at Autzen Stadium, and for the #12 Oregon Ducks (8-2) revenge is a dish best served cold. Saturday night's meeting with the #10 Utah Utes (8-2) is a rematch of last November's 38-7 win by the Utes which knocked then #4 UO out of the CFP rankings.
To add insult to injury, Utah went on to rout the Ducks again 38-10 in the Pac-12 Championship Game, sending the Utes to the Rose Bowl where they eventually lost a close 48-45 meeting with Ohio State. There's a lot of congestion in the rankings ahead of either Oregon or Utah to make it to the CFP this year, but whoever loses this game is definitely eliminated from playoff contention.
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Utah at Oregon Odds for Week 12
Spread: Utah -2 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 60.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Utah -125 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Oregon +115 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
Oregon is a home underdog on Saturday night, which actually isn't all that surprising considering Utah spanked the Ducks twice last year in clutch situations and by a combined 59 points. Oddsmakers have wised up after making Oregon a -12 point favorite in Eugene last week only to have them lose 37-34 to Washington for their first home defeat of the season. Utah has lost by three at Florida in the opener and by 10 at then-undefeated UCLA so they are just 2-2 in road games this season.
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Utah @ Oregon Betting Picks This Week
It would seem like until the Ducks can get over the hurdle that is Utah, they cannot be the play in this head-to-head series. One angle you could take here is that these teams are just flip-flopping ruining each other's CFP hopes, as Utah did it to #4 Oregon last season but the Ducks beat then #5 Utah in the 2019 Pac-12 Championship costing them a bid for the final four.
Aside from the triple revenge angle, the #1 factor in this game is Oregon's defense - or lack thereof. Washington threw for 408 yards last week against the Ducks, and although the Huskies do have the #1 passing offense in the country Utah QB Cameron Rising can sling the rock too with a 415-yard game last month against USC and 3 TD passes last week against Stanford.
What really makes the Utes hard to defend this week is that they can run the football as well, top 20 in the nation at 210.5 ypg on the ground. Oregon's offense can go blow-for-blow though scoring 40+ in 8 of 10 games this season. That means the best play here is that there are going to be points scored - a lot of them.
Utah @ Oregon Best Bet: Over 60.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Utah at Oregon Prediction
One of the big reasons the Ducks couldn't hang with Utah in those two big games last season is that Oregon didn't have consistency at the QB position under Anthony Brown. A lot of the Ducks' success in 2021 was due to Travis Dye and his 1,100+ yards and 15 TDs as well as a fairly stout defense that only allowed 25.5 ppg.
That Oregon defense has taken a turn for the worse in 2022 ranking dead last in the country allowing 312.2 ypg passing to FBS opponents, but they've also put up better offensive numbers ranking second in the nation with 527.7 ypg. Give a lot of that credit to Bo Nix who has 24 TD passes and another 15 on the ground while completing 73% of his passes and throwing just two INTs in his last six games. Mar'Keise Irving has also run for 120+ in two straight and with a couple big games to close out the year he could match Dye's rushing yardage from last season.
Essentially both offenses are going to get theirs on Saturday night and the Senior Nix battling the Junior Rising should make for some epic late-night TV with points aplenty. Somebody has scored 30+ in 10 straight matchups in the series and -2 is the closest point spread of any of those. Utah hit this total themselves with 62 points in 2015 and Oregon put a big chunk with 51 in the 2014 meeting so these have not exactly been defensive struggles.
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