Start vs. Sit: Who to Play, Who to Bench Week 8

The last two weeks have been absolutely out of control with top-10 teams seeing their playoff dreams dashed left and right. I, for one, embrace the chaos. There could be even more insanity this week with a pair of matchups between blue bloods (Michigan at Penn State and USC at Notre Dame) along with some potential trap games for highly ranked squads like Miami, Oklahoma State and maybe even West Virginia.

PLAYERS TO START

AAC

Riley Ferguson, QB, Memphis (at Houston): The Tigers are a bit of a surprising road dog this week despite being ranked as they head to Houston to face a tough Cougars squad. Houston has been opportunistic on defense this season, picking off nine passes through six games while giving up just five passing touchdowns and an average of 6.0 yards per attempt. Still, Ferguson is playing too well to hit the bench this week even with the concerning factors of going on the road on a short week. Ferguson has 10 touchdowns and no picks in his last two games, making his three-interception meltdown against UCF look all the more like an aberration.

ACC

Travis Homer, RB, Miami (vs. Syracuse): Homer quelled the concerns about Miami's run game sans Mark Walton on Saturday with an electric 20-carry, 170-yard showing against Georgia Tech. It's also worth noting that the Yellow Jackets were a fringe top-20 run defense entering that game. This week, Homer draws a Syracuse team that's respectable against the run in its own right, but still not quite deep enough to stop the Miami backfield for four quarters. It'll be difficult for Homer to average 8.5 yards over 20 carries once again Saturday, but he has the skill and the expected volume to cross the 100-yard mark for a second consecutive week.

BIG 12

Ka'Raun White, WR, West Virginia (at Baylor): It took me a while to fully buy into White with so many talented receivers drawing targets for the Mountaineers, but I'm officially sold now. White not only has reliable target volume, but he's shown a nose for the end zone in recent weeks with five touchdowns in his last five outings. Gary Jennings and David Sills' collective presence does limit White's upside to an extent, but he's a big and speedy enough target to break a big play anytime he touches the ball against a shaky at best Baylor secondary. I'm also bullish on Iowa State's David Montgomery this week.

BIG TEN

Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (vs. Michigan): There are only a handful of backs in the entire country you'd start with confidence against the Wolverines' defense, and Barkley is one of those select few. This is a classic matchup of strength vs. strength as Barkley is the Heisman favorite and Michigan sports a top-10 run defense. Frankly, it wouldn't shock me if Barkley is held well below his season average in terms of yards per carry (6.36), but his versatility in multiple facets of the game should allow him to post strong overall production. Look for Barkley to shine Saturday in what figures to be one of the best Big Ten games of the season.

CONFERENCE USA

Jalen Rhodes, RB, UTSA (vs. Rice): Rhodes bounced back from a Week 6 clunker to post 116 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown against North Texas on Saturday and draws another favorable matchup this week against Rice. The Owls rank 124th in team defense according to S&P+ and have allowed a whopping 17 rushing touchdowns in just six games. Rhodes had a huge game against a similarly bad Texas State club earlier in the season and should be in line to do serious damage against the Owls on Saturday.

MAC

Andrew Clair, RB, Bowling Green (vs. Northern Illinois): Clair, a true freshman, burst onto the scene with back-to-back 100-yard outings. He's taken 34 carries for 269 yards in that stretch, averaging just under 8.0 YPC in that stretch. Interestingly, this is a tough matchup for Clair and the Falcons against what has statistically been one of the better run defenses in the nation this season in NIU. The Huskies have given up just three rushing touchdowns and opposing runners average just 2.37 YPC against them. Something has to give in this matchup, and I give the lean to Clair, who has the look of a budding star for Bowling Green.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Dalyn Dawkins, RB, Colorado State (at New Mexico): I've been hesitant to use a Colorado State running back because the Rams' depth at the position often results in a fairly even carry split. That's been the case to a degree most of the year, but Dawkins has established himself as the No. 1 runner in arguably the best offense in the Mountain West. Dawkins has crossed the 100-yard mark in three straight games with an average of 8.0 YPC. He draws a road matchup with New Mexico, which ranks 102nd in the nation according to S&P+'s team defense metric. He may not see jaw-dropping volume Friday, but Dawkins is showing that he can produce viable running back production with a modest carry total.

PAC-12

Zack Moss, RB, Utah (vs. Arizona State): Quietly, Moss ranks seventh in the Pac-12 in rushing yards per game (80.8) and averages a strong 5.2 YPC. The touchdown production has been lacking as he has just three rushing scores on 93 totes, but that could change this week against an Arizona State defense that hasn't been particularly stout against the run. The Sun Devils give up 5.3 yards per carry and have let in 10 rushing touchdowns through six games. One final note of interest: All three of Moss' rushing touchdowns have come at home this season. Moss is a viable streaming option this weekend if one of your top running backs is on a bye.

SEC

Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (at Mississippi): We all know what Guice is capable of when he's healthy, and even though he was held in check by Auburn, a Guice breakout is coming. LSU has a different level of confidence after pulling off surprising quality wins in back-to-back weeks and now the Tigers draw one of the softest possible matchups in the SEC with a trip to Oxford on tap. Guice was expected to be "limited" against Auburn and still saw 20 carries. Auburn is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry as a unit. Ole Miss? 5.50 YPC. This could be the week that Guice shows he's fully healthy and back to his form from late in 2016 when he was unstoppable.

SUN BELT

Penny Hart, WR, Georgia State (vs. Troy): It's great to have Hart back to his pre-2016 injury form as he's ripped opposing defenses for 100-plus yards in three straight games, scoring five touchdowns in the process. Sure, Troy is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt, but if last week's rousing edition of #FunBelt showed us, there might not be too much distance between the penthouse and the outhouse in this conference. Hart is nearly a lock to see double-digit targets, and a receiver as sure-handed as he is can and will do damage with that kind of volume.

PLAYERS TO SIT

AAC

Chris High, RB, Navy (vs. UCF): Central Florida has established itself as one of the top Group of Five teams in the nation this season and the Knights are more than deserving of their Top-20 ranking. Yes, Navy has a high-powered run game and High has reliable volume (14.8 carries per game), but Central Florida boasts arguably the toughest run defense the Midshipmen have faced this season. Central Florida allows just 110.2 rushing yards per game (3.67 YPC), and High doesn't see enough red-zone work to have a reliable touchdown floor to bolster his floor. High is a fine play against some of the weaker AAC teams, but UCF doesn't fit that description this time around.

ACC

Reggie Bonnafon, RB, Louisville (at Florida State): What looked like a potential conference-defining matchup in August now has next to no buzz due to a number of disappointing and surprising losses by both the Cardinals and the Noles. Bonnafon is not to blame for Louisville's recent slide, but this is still a tough matchup for the UL offense. He's the lead back due to Louisville's backfield attrition, but Lamar Jackson is still the engine that drives the Cardinal run game. I expect Bonnafon to push for double-digit carries, but Florida State's run defense is among the FBS' elite and there's also a chance that Louisville falls behind early, which could force the Cardinals to ditch the traditional run game.

BIG 12

Chris Warren, RB, Texas (vs. Oklahoma State): Warren has the team lead in almost every major rushing category, including yards (274) and touchdowns (5). However, Warren simply doesn't get enough carries to be fully trusted. Texas' running back rotation has been a source of frustration in recent weeks with neither Warren nor Kyle Porter finding a rhythm. Also, quarterback Sam Ehlinger's presence changes the Longhorns' rushing approach. While I'm not saying that Oklahoma State's run defense is something I'm actively trying to avoid for fantasy purposes, I am saying that Warren's workload volatility makes him too risky a play for this week.

BIG TEN

Ty Johnson, RB, Maryland (at Wisconsin): As a general rule of thumb, you don't want to start a running back against the Badgers. That rule applies this week even though Johnson is one of the nation's most explosive running backs, averaging 7.18 YPC. There's also the volume issue with Johnson as he's seen more than 12 carries in a game just once all season. Wisconsin ranks fourth against the run in terms of yardage and has only allowed two touchdowns on the ground all season. Johnson is a fine back, but this is a week to leave him on the bench due to the matchup and game flow concerns.

CONFERENCE USA

Ray Lawry, RB, Old Dominion (vs. Western Kentucky): Lawry got back in the fold last week after a lengthy absence due to a hamstring injury. However, he was held to just 40 yards on 14 carries and didn't reach the end zone. This week he'll be facing a middling Western Kentucky run defense, and while the matchup may be favorable on its surface, Lawry might still be looking at a time-share at best with teammate Jeremy Cox. Lawry should get back on track as the season progresses, but I have my reservations about that happening this week.

MAC

James Gardner, WR, Miami (OH) (vs. Buffalo): Gardner is enjoying a terrific season with 29 catches for 602 yards (20.8 YPR) and six touchdowns through seven games and on the surface he draws another favorable matchup Saturday. Buffalo, though, has been relatively stingy against the pass with the second-best pass defense in the MAC in terms of yardage. What's more, starting quarterback Gus Ragland is likely out again this week. Gardner's been able to survive without him in each of the last two games (8 catches, 193 yards, two scores), but those outings have come against two of the worst defenses in the MAC. Gardner will still see plenty of target volume, but the dropoff in quarterback play from Ragland to Billy Bahl will truly rear its head this week.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming (at Boise State): Remember Allen was a lock to be a top-five draft pick after this season? That feels like a lifetime ago as Allen's lack of surrounding talent has exposed some of his flaws and hindered his production. In fact, if you drafted LSU's Danny Etling in your league, you'd have more points from him than you would from Allen. A trip up to Boise for a night game against the Broncos doesn't bode well for a change in course from Allen, who has one touchdown and three picks in two road games this season. It's also worth noting that Allen averages 151.4 yards per game against FBS competition this season. I'd look to avoid starting him at all costs Saturday.

PAC-12

Sam Darnold, QB, USC (at Notre Dame): Darnold may have finally snapped his interception streak Saturday, but he was still credited with three lost fumbles against Utah. While Utah does have one of the more respectable defenses in the PAC-12, it's still a few notches below what Darnold will be facing in South Bend this week. Notre Dame is 13th in team defense according to S&P+ and will be fresh coming off a bye week. It's tough to sit a player you likely spent a top pick on, but Darnold might deserve a spot on the bench this week if you have a better option.

SEC

Aeris Williams, RB, Mississippi State (vs. Kentucky): Williams had one of his best games of the season last week with 114 yards and a score on 23 carries. Unfortunately, it was a soft BYU run defense, so I have my doubts about a carryover performance Saturday. Kentucky, meanwhile, checks in right behind Alabama and Georgia against the run as far as SEC teams are concerned, allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground. I also have concerns about Williams' touchdown upside considering that bulldozer quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is the primary goal-line option. Williams could be stifled for a low per-carry average, and if he fails to reach the end zone, having him in your lineup could swing your matchup in the wrong direction.

SUN BELT

Aaron Duckworth, RB, Idaho (at Missouri): All right, before you start yelling at me about a no-brainer pick, let's get a few things out there. 1) Duckworth has been pretty darn good this season, leading the Sun Belt in rushing yards with 552 through six games. 2) Missouri, conversely, has not been particularly good. The Tigers have surrendered 20 rushing touchdowns in six games. Four of those were to Southwest Missouri State. Yikes. All of this makes it sound like Duckworth might actually be a decent play, but let's go with the Occam's Razor here: there's not a particularly high likelihood that Idaho's line gets enough of a push against Mizzou's SEC-sized front to create enough room for Duckworth. Don't overthink it.